The Tories could lose 800 seats and Labour gain 800 in next month’s local elections in England and Wales, shock polling has claimed.
The study by two firms suggested Labour would be the largest party in Parliament, 15 short of an overall majority, if the results were replicated at a general election.
However, other pollsters poured scorn on the findings, first published by the Telegraph, predicting they would overstate the scale of any Labour gains this May. A Labour MP branded them Tory "expectation management".
More than 5,000 council seats are up for grabs in 197 councils across Britain on May 5 - mainly in Labour-held areas.
Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now polled 12,115 residents of 201 district and unitary councils on April 4-8 - after many Partygate revelations but before Boris Johnson was fined by police.
The study predicted the Tories would drop 810 seats in England and Wales, from 1,965 to 1,155, compared to their performance the last time the seats were up for grabs in 2017/18.
Labour would gain 835 seats, rising from 2,887 to 3,722. The Lib Dems would lose 13, Plaid Cymru gain 64, and other parties or independents lose 75.
It projected the Tories could lose key councils including Thurrock, Barnet, Harlow and Wandsworth in London and the South East.
While many councils remain in ‘no overall control’, Labour could gain Barnet, Bolton, Crawley, Merthyr Tydfil, Milton Keynes, Plymouth and Sheffield, the study said.
Electoral Calculus chief executive Martin Baxter said even if the Tories do drop 800 seats, “Boris Johnson will be spared new backbench pressure to unseat him.
“Although the Conservatives will lose some ground in these local elections, it doesn’t look like a catastrophic defeat, and that is a good result for them after their poor poll ratings post-Partygate.”
But Chris Curtis, head of political polling for Opinium, hit back: “The chances of the Tories losing this many seats is vanishingly small.
“If they do end up doing this disastrously, then Labour would be the strong favourites to win the next General Election.”
Britain Elects co-founder Ben Walker said: “Tories are defending roughly 1,800 seats this cycle. To lose more than 800 is, to put it politely, a bit far fetched.”
Philip Cowley, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London, said: “If I had ever written a book on local elections, I would offer to eat it if this happened…”
Senior Labour MP Chris Bryant said: “Nonsense. This is just expectation management.”
The Tories won just over 1,500 seats in England and Wales - fewer than this study’s total of nearly 2,000 - the last time they were up for grabs in 2017 and 2018.
Electoral Calculus said the difference was largely due to boundary changes in Wales since then. There have also been some changes of allegiance for individual councillors, as well as by-elections.
Nick Fox of Find Out Now said: “We're expecting the results to confirm the headway that Starmer has been making in the polls, but the council gains we have predicted for Labour haven't translated to Conservative losses, so it's not a result that will give Johnson any real unrest.
“Whether this is the end of the Partygate scandal or we are seeing its effects temporarily diffused by the conflict in Ukraine remains to be seen.”
