When the Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet at Raymond James Stadium in Week 10, it’ll be just the 13th time these two franchises have met since 1976.
Only the Arizona Cardinals (12) and Carolina Panthers (six) will have played the Titans in fewer games in franchise history after this matchup with the Buccaneers kicks off on Sunday.
Tennessee has owned the Bucs in their previous 12 matchups, with the Titans winning 10 of them, including each of the last three and eight of the last nine.
Both teams enter this game with a 3-5 record and off a loss, although the Bucs are in the midst of a four-game losing streak.
However, they are closer in their conference’s playoff picture, with Tampa Bay sitting in the No. 10 spot in the NFC, while Tennessee is four spots lower in the AFC.
Now, a look at some reasons for optimism and concern for Tennessee in Week 10.
Optimism: Bucs' pass defense
The Buccaneers enter this game giving up the second-most passing yards per contest (279.4) and the most explosive pass plays (20-plus yards) in the NFL. Their pass-rush hasn’t had much success, either, with only 2.6 sacks per.
Tampa Bay is also coming off a game in which the defense gave up a rookie record 470 passing yards to Houston Texans quarterback, C.J. Stroud.
Meanwhile, Titans rookie quarterback Will Levis is tied for the second-most big pass plays over the last two weeks with 10, trailing only Dallas Cowboys signal-caller, Dak Prescott. Levis only has four fewer such plays than Ryan Tannehill, who had 14 in six contests.
If the Titans can keep Levis upright (more on that shortly), the Titans’ passing attack should eat.
Concern: Titans' defense
Tennessee’s defense has been bad in just about every way over the last handful of weeks.
Not only has the pass-rush been very inconsistent, but Tennessee’s once-elite run defense has been getting gashed, giving up 159.5 rushing yards per game over the last four weeks.
Granted, Tampa Bay hasn’t had much success running the ball (30th-ranked rushing attack), but the Titans are a perfect get-right spot for Rachaad White and Co.
More importantly, with the Bucs sporting an impressive receiver duo in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, the Titans must get consistent pressure on Baker Mayfield in order to help their suspect secondary out or else the pair will feast on Sunday.
Making matters worse for the secondary, the Titans will be without arguably their best cornerback, Sean Murphy-Bunting, who is considered doubtful to play against his former mates due to a thumb injury.
2022 UDFA Tre Avery will likely take his spot, but the Rutgers product has given up completions on 85 percent of the passes thrown his way for 141 yards and one score, which amounts to a passer rating allowed of 112.7.
On the bright side, the Titans will welcome back cornerback Roger McCreary, who is also in the conversation for Tennessee’s best at the position thanks to his impressive work in the slot. In addition, the Titans’ projected top corner at the start of the season, Kristian Fulton, has played much better of late.
Optimism: Bucs' home struggles
The Buccaneers have been a very different team on the road as opposed to when they’re playing at home.
Tampa Bay is 1-3 at Raymond James Stadium and is scoring just 14.2 points per contest. On the flip side, the Bucs are 2-2 away from home and are putting up an average of 25.2 points.
However, the Bucs have still managed to be stingy on defense at home, surrendering just 19.5 points per.
Concern: Titans' road woes
The Titans have yet to win a game away from Nissan Stadium this season. Tennessee is 0-5 in such contests when you include the loss in London to Baltimore in which the Titans were considered the home team.
In fact, if the Titans lose on Sunday, it will have been a calendar year since they’ve won a single road game, with their last coming in Week 11 of 2022 (Nov. 17).
Here are Tennessee’s splits in terms of scoring, both at and away from Nissan Stadium (London game included in “road” numbers):
Points allowed
Home: 16.6
Road: 22.0
Points scored:
Home: 27.3
Road: 13.2
Concern: Titans' offensive line
While Tampa Bay’s pass defense is certainly exploitable, the only way Levis can take full advantage is if he’s given adequate pass protection, which is never a given.
The good news is, the Bucs’ pass-rush hasn’t done much in 2023, with Tampa Bay’s defense notching just 21 sacks, or 2.6 per game. Adding to that, the Titans should be getting right tackle Chris Hubbard back.
However, the Titans’ offensive line can make even the most tame pass-rush look elite.
Making matters worse, the Titans may be forced to go back to their weakest link in left tackle Andre Dillard, who could get the start with Nicholas Petit-Frere on the shelf.
Dillard has given up eight sacks and 34 pressures in 259 pass-block snaps this season, per Pro Football Focus, and was completely overmatched last week against the Steelers.
The Titans cannot continue to play Andre Dillard. He doesn't even get off the LOS! Instant sack. pic.twitter.com/gCBuuqbhrI
— Justin Graver (@titansfilmroom) November 10, 2023
In reality, the Titans should be giving Peter Skoronski or Dillon Radunz a shot on the left side, and I’d even prefer to see Jaelyn Duncan there before Dillard gets another crack
Hopefully the Titans take one of those three approaches before trying Dillard on the left side again, but even that doesn’t guarantee the group upfront will be able to protect Levis.
Concern: Bucs' run defense
The Titans may have a tough time moving the football on the ground in Week 10, as the Bucs sport the No. 9 run defense.
Struggling to get the ground game going could be a problem. Not only does the rushing attack take pressure off Levis, it also helps set him up for play-action, where the Kentucky product has found success early on.
It’s important to note, however, that Tampa Bay might send extra help to the secondary thanks to the unit’s woes, which would create more space upfront for Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears to operate.
Concern: Bucs' red zone defense
As we’ve seen all season, just because the Titans can move the ball down the field and into the red zone doesn’t mean they’re going to score six.
Tennessee sports the second-worst red zone offense in the NFL through nine weeks, with the Titans scoring on just 34.62 percent of their trips, per Team Rankings. Since Levis took over in Week 8, Tennessee is just 2-for-5 (40 percent).
The Titans might have a tough time getting on track in the red area in Week 10. The Bucs sport the No. 2 red zone defense, with teams finding pay dirt on just 36.42 percent of their trips.
