The undocumented migrant population in the United States reached a record high in 2023, the most recent year for which data is available.
A recent report by The Migration Policy Institute estimates that approximately 13.7 million undocumented migrants lived in the U.S. as of mid-2023, up from 12.8 million the year prior. The data from the report comes from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS), which estimates the size of the unauthorized immigrant population overall, and their top countries and regions of birth.
According to the study, the unauthorized migrant population grew by 3 million between 2019 and 2023, or an average of 6% per year, a growth rate that had not been seen since the early 2000s. The growth is explained largely by increased irregular arrivals at the southern border, with the top nationalities represented being Venezuelans, Colombians, Cubans, Ecuadorians and Nicaraguans.
The increasing figures are the result of deteriorating conditions in those countries. For instance, the unauthorized migrant population from Venezuela started to grow quickly following severe economic and political turbulence in 2015, while other populations from Honduras and Guatemala didn't see such a rapid growth until 2019, according to the study.
Interestingly, one population which has seen varying degrees of fluctuation are Mexicans. The study shows that the Mexican unauthorized population peaked at 7.8 million in 2007. It then shrank to 5.3 million in 2021 as part of a decades-long trend that started in 2008-2009 in the Great Recession. But in 2022 and 2023, the population rose again, standing at 5.5 million as of mid-2023.
Just as it is the case for other countries in the region, the number of Mexican unauthorized migrants coincided with the conditions in the country at the time. Hence, the increase in population is largely connected to the economic instability that occurred in Mexico even as the U.S. economy was strengthening following the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as intervals of internal displacement due to local concentrations of violence.
The report comes as the Trump administration continues to take steps at curbing unlawful migration, promising to enact the largest deportation operation in American history over the next four years.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents were reportedly told in January to aim to meet a daily quota of 1,200-1,400 arrests. According to numbers ICE has posted on X, the highest single day total since Trump was inaugurated was just 1,100, and the number has fallen since that day.
Those are grim numbers for the Trump administration. According to an NBC News analysis, in order to fulfill the president's Inauguration Day promise of "millions and millions" of deportation, the Trump administration would have to be deporting over 2,700 immigrants every day to reach 1 million in a year.
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