Talking Points
- Rescuers celebrated a small miracle amid the devastation in Izmir
- Typhoon Goni hit the Philippines with nearly 300kph windspeeds
- Hurricane Eta hammered poor Central American countries
- Islamic State claimed the Kabul university attack which killed 35
- A failure of Austria's deradicalisation program was laid bare in Vienna
- Multiple attacks in France pushed the country into high alert
- Ethiopia's ethnic wounds tore open in an armed Tigray rebellion
- An electoral dispute in the Ivory Coast threatened the peace
- Indonesians resisted labour reforms in huge protests
- Stung by Jack Ma, Chinese regulators popped Ant's IPO bubble
Deep Dive
At latest count, Joe Biden has won the Oval Office. A narrow lead in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada correspond to more than enough Electoral College votes to see him installed at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. How did it all play out – and what can we expect from America's new consoler-in-chief?
The Blue Ripple
What a long, fretful week this has been. A strong showing for Trump on election day was followed by the painfully slow drip of Democrat-leaning mail ballots, interspersed by Trump's own ham-handed attempts to spoil the result . We didn't need a poll watcher to predict this (or, as it turns out, anything else either). Trump had been telegraphing his strategy for weeks. Now we wait for the lawsuits and recounts.
The pollsters weren’t wrong about their much vaunted Blue Wave. That did in fact emerge. And they should get some credit for that. Unfortunately, they failed (once again) to notice the equally big red wave alongside it. But the fault in this lies with us. Next cycle, let's gently replace all these predictive psephologists with Paul, the octopus that predicted the 2014 World Cup winner (if it is still alive).
Despite the historic turnout – and Biden crowing about receiving the highest vote in American history – the race went down to the wire in the above-mentioned states and North Carolina. Florida once again frustrated the DCCC (and the world). As did Texas, where the Democrats ended up closer than before, but still too far.
When all had been said and done, the final tally flattered Joe Biden. Despite four years of Donald Trump, the lies, the several hundred thousand coronavirus deaths, the tax dodging, the race-baiting, the insults – Trump grew his support base. The Biden campaign spent a fortune that would have made Croesus blush. The candidate himself represented the most moderate, least objectionable of milquetoast Democrats. And yet, those Republican voters did not come over the fence. The clean split through the American electorate is not political – it is cultural.
On the night, Michigan and Wisconsin were body blows for the Trump team. But it was a phone call between Jarred Kushner and Rupert Murdoch that sealed his fate. The in-law in chief apparently rang the media mogul in a huff after Fox News called the crucial swing-state of Arizona for Joe Biden. This was a big deal because as we mentioned last week, the perception of the result was, at least for the Republicans, far more important than the result itself. But Kushner's pleas fell on deaf ears. Deprived of his most powerful mouthpiece, Trump shrank from the spotlight. The world saw, in Trump’s erratic, infrequent appearances, a deflating president. On Thursday, multiple networks even cut away from the president’s address as he regurgitated lies about voter fraud .
Republicans peeled off in droves in scenes reminiscent of a sinking ship. The US Senate leader Mitch McConnell – arguably the most competent GOP politician of his generation – waved off the president's fabricated claims of fraud. Trump may have looked like the victor four years ago, but with the benefit of hindsight we can see that the real winner was McConnell. A 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court, sweeping tax cuts, burgeoning Pentagon budgets, and 'business-friendly' environmental regulations - it all looks like the Platonic ideal of a GOP term. But the Democrats have won – so why is the celebration so muted?
Out with the old, in with the even older
What now? What can we expect from the Biden administration? Will there be a science-led response to the coronavirus pandemic, and efforts to expand testing and PPE production? An improvement on the last administration’s response certainly wouldn’t be a stretch, but don't expect a mask-mandate (that is a state responsibility) or widespread lockdowns (Biden's campaign has written them off).
What about the economy? One of Biden’s early priorities will likely be the reversal of Trump's tax cuts for America's top income-earners. Biden has also promised not to raise taxes on anyone earning under $400,000 per annum. And to restore the corporate tax rate to 28%. The Biden White House will undoubtedly also try to protect the Affordable Care Act (with tax credits to lower premiums). But it has brushed off all suggestions of expanding Medicare. The market is unlikely to react favourably to any or all of this.
On the environment, we've been promised a Clean Energy Revolution – a renewed commitment to the Paris Climate Agreement and an aim for net zero carbon emissions by 2050 (but don’t try to square this with Biden’s campaign promises to safeguard the fracking industry ). There have also been thought-bubbles about rebuilding the 'arsenal of democracy', restoring American leadership, reforming the criminal justice system, and returning civility to Washington.
Some of this is good policy, much of it seems a refreshing tonic after four years of Trump's reign. But all of it is contingent on the Democrats winning the US Senate, which at the time of writing looked highly unlikely. If the US senate is held by Republicans, expect policies that match Biden's favoured vanilla ice cream. Lindsay Graham (reports of whose political demise were greatly exaggerated) has promised to stop Biden's "radical agenda". No, to expanding the Supreme Court. No, to statehood for Puerto Rico or Washington D.C. No, to ending the filibuster. Yes, to ineffectual minority rule. And while a Republican Senate is unlikely to shoot down every single bill that comes its way, the Senate under McConnell has had plenty of practice with Obama. So we wouldn't recommend anyone holding their breath on the policies outlined above .
And so, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. may finally, on his third attempt, become President of the United States of America. But he may yet, even in victory, have defeat heaped upon him by an uncooperative, unrepresentative, and antagonistic Senate.
Worldlywise
Addio aperitivo
Now that the US election is (somewhat) over, we can get back to worrying about Covid-19. This week America blew past the 100,000-cases-per-day mark. Cases continue to soar in Western Europe, prompting national lockdowns (of various stripes). In France, a strict curfew (and a ban on late-night food and alcohol deliveries) aims to stop Parisians from dining and boozing into the wee hours. All of Europe is set to suffer as Germany's "wave-breaker" lockdown forces its local industry – the only thing that can keep the European Union out of a prolonged recession – to halt. Italy has again designated a number of regions as "red zones" , restricting movement to and between them. Greece, having so ably navigated the first wave, is also now waving a white flag.
And the punters are not happy. There have been fisticuffs in France and street-fights in Spain. The "Million Mask March" of anti-lockdown protesters – who, it must be noted, numbered vastly less than one million – paraded around central London before being promptly arrested. While many of the placards reflected the silliest conjectures on Facebook and YouTube, there were some questions deserving of answers. The most important of those, unsurprisingly, was this: will lockdown measures work? There are only a few examples we can look at for an answer. One of these, happily, is Melbourne, Australia. While the Australian hotspot has (fingers crossed) smothered community transmission and achieved something close to elimination, it has taken us 14 weeks to do so. A mere month is almost certainly not going to do the trick, especially when there are more than 8 million active cases in the UK and EU.
There is also the substantial question of public obeisance. In Australia, a tiny minority of people took to the streets to protest the loss of freedoms. And, even as cases peaked at 700 per day and trended downwards, the lockdown dominated the national news cycle and attracted caustic political commentary. In London the barest restrictions have come into play before the public revolts. Americans, as has been brutally witnessed, would rather die in droves than wear masks. Are Australians cowed into submission at the first brush of authority? Are Americans kindling the light of liberty? Compare all of this to India, which tallied 50,000 cases yesterday. There, coronavirus is old news. Prime Minister Narendra Modi no longer refers to it in his regular speeches – it is simply part of life now. While inkl does not take a position on cultural relativity, there is something to be said about learning from one another – this is a global pandemic after all.
Always look on the bright (and windy) side of life
It's certainly not polite to kick someone while they are down, but it may be in the public interest: this week Saudi oil giant Aramco reported a bone-deep 44.6% drop in profit in the third quarter. The results were in line with analysts' expectations, but will still have rattled the head office in Dharan. As the global pandemic drags on, the appetite for Saudi crude will likely remain low, and this has already had a significant impact on Aramco's ability to pay out dividends. Internationally, crude oil trade is at its lowest point in five months , and the recent spate of lockdowns in Europe has led to further price deterioration. Coronavirus has sped up the decline of oil: producers around the world have cut jobs in the thousands and are diversifying their interests ( Spanish oil giant Repsol SA now spends more on renewables than it does on drilling). The World Energy Outlook confirmed this, revealing an accelerating shift towards renewable energy.
News of this kind isn't just some silver lining: it's a tectonic shift in how our world operates. For all the derision that renewables don't work when the elements are not favourable, it's solar and wind that have proven most resilient in the face of the exigent shock of this year. And this is happening everywhere. Even in Australia, one of the worst laggards on climate action in the OECD, solar and wind are pushing coal-fired power generators out of the picture across a majority of states and territories. Hydrogen technology is emerging as a $700b market opportunity that European and Chinese countries are scrambling to dominate. In Denmark, new factories to build electrolyzers (devices to turn renewable electricity into hydrogen which can be cooled, stored, and transported) cannot keep pace with orders. This century-old idea has now been realised at a commercial scale – and not a moment too soon.
The Best of Times
Protein rich space diets
One protein can reduce the effects of ageing, help us handle spaceflight better, and aid treatment for Alzheimer’s and diabetes. How did they find it? By sending 12 mice to the International Space Station. It's too late for Laika (the first dog in space), but maybe it can help Elon Musk's Mars colony.
Mica, nacre, and cellulose
For those of you who are still using plastic bags, we've found a replacement. And all we had to do was look at nature. Or, more specifically, nacre — the material produced by molluscs to line the insides of their shells. Scientists combined mica and cellulose to replicate the material which is tougher, stronger, and more thermally stable than boring old plastic.
The Worst of Times
You've got to care to share
Rich countries have secured 3.8b doses of potential coronavirus vaccines, with billions more on the way. As a result, poor countries will have to wait and try to contain their outbreaks until more vaccines are developed. Not only could the hoarding risk thousands of lives, it could also cost the global economy $1.2t .
Smyrna burnt, Izmir shook
A 7.0 magnitude earthquake hit the Turkish city of Izmir last week, leaving 116 dead and 1035 injured. After the initial strike, some 1,700 aftershocks followed — 45 of which were greater than 4.0 in magnitude. Rescuers combed through the rubble of collapsed buildings, but were only able to save 107 people.
Weekend Reading
The image
The quote
" We pray that the progress of robotics and artificial intelligence may always serve humanity . "
– In his November intention, Pope Francis weighs in on the topic de jour in tech circles . Your Holiness, all of us who've read Tim Urban's work on AI are in rapturous agreement with you.
The numbers
$2,120,000,000
- This week US pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson failed to wriggle out of a significant corporate penalty for selling baby powder with asbestos in it . Dozens of women developed ovarian cancer from the faulty goods. A J&J spokesperson described the trial as "flawed", which is also the exact phrase one might use to describe their asbestos-riddled baby powder.
$2,000,000,000
- In a similar vein, German agribusiness Bayer is begrudgingly setting aside a few billion for the anticipated cost of future lawsuits over the carcinogenic herbicide Roundup. Bayer failed to settle its outstanding disputes by Monday – as required by a federal court judge last year – and is headed back to court.
The headline
"AI has a hard time telling between a soccer ball and a bald head" – Input .
The special mention
Who else but the scholars of the Adani mining corporation's esteemed Latin Department? This week the company, which has faced significant backlash for trying to excavate most of the east coast of Australia, decided to dig into history for a new name. It landed on "Bravus" , which according to Adani has its roots in the medieval Latin word for brave. Actual Latin scholars (who don't have much else to do these days) were quick to point out that "bravus" means "assassin" or "crooked".
A few choice long-reads
- How do you choose between religious expression and free speech? The Economist shows us that you can pick a side (no spoilers).
- After the election America will have to confront its daily average of 100,000 new coronavirus cases. Foreign Affairs wonders how that they'll even begin.
- And, no man is a movement. Bloomberg Businessweek explains how Trumpism will stick around long after the president has left public life.
Tom Wharton
