“Welsh rugby is finished, Wales are not going to win a game in this Six Nations and they can forget about the World Cup.”
The words of a gent around the town where this writer resides in the run-up to Wales’ Six Nations game in Italy.
No, he wasn’t going out to Rome for the match.
The last time he went to the Principality Stadium he was seated so far away from the pitch he could hear Katherine Jenkins singing the national anthem but not see her.
“And don’t get me started on the ticket prices.”
Happy days.
Anyway, Wales’ players evidently didn’t read the memo about the national team not going to win a game in this Six Nations as they went out and defeated Italy at Stadio Olimpico.
But perspective is everything and Warren Gatland’s team face France in Paris this weekend, a potentially sobering fixture if there was one after Saturday evening’s events at Twickenham when Les Bleus pulled off a 53-10 win over England which would have made rugby followers from Reykjavik to Rotorua sit up and take notice.
How will Gatland approach his selection?
Traditionally, he has picked what he views as his best side in tournament finales, rewarding players who have been performing.
So who is secure for the clash with the French on Saturday?
Here’s our assessment of the likely fate of those who played against Italy and those likely to replace them.
Liam Williams
The only thing that will keep him out of the starting line-up for the game in Stade de France is injury, with Williams sustaining a bump. If he’s fit, he's in the run-on XV after a strong show against Italy, because he adds to Wales’ attacking game.
If injury rules Williams out, Leigh Halfpenny would be favourite to come in, though Gatland did float the idea last week of Louis Rees-Zammit being considered as a potential full-back option.
Josh Adams
Gatland had said he wanted more from Adams after a quiet display against England, but it didn’t happen against Italy. Effort wasn’t a problem, with the Cardiff man chasing and covering well, but when it came to taking a chance he should have taken, five or so metres out early in the second half, he found himself held up by Stephen Varney.
It wasn’t a moment the Wales wing will want to dwell on. Nor was it a moment that improves Adams’ selection prospects for France. Louis Rees-Zammit went hunting for ball when he came on and made ground; he also pulled off a couple of important tackles. Whether at Adams’ expense or not, Rees Zammit will be unlucky not to start at Stade de France.
Mason Grady
He’s young and still learning his trade, but Wales’ midfield defence really didn’t inspire confidence and the question for the selectors is whether to stand Grady down after he missed five tackles or give him another run to bank further experience. Either George North or Nick Tompkins would likely come in if there’s to be change.
Joe Hawkins
He’s had a solid Six Nations with ball in hand, catching the eye as a forceful carrier who gets over the gainline, but he was wrong-footed a number of times by Italian ball carriers and has missed more tackles, 12, than any other player in the tournament.
Gatland has kept belief and may decide to do so again on the basis that the pluses outweigh the minuses and Hawkins is on course to develop into a fine player. If the coach opts for something different, Nick Tompkins would be favourite to come in, with Keiran Williams — despite tearing it up for the Ospreys a week last Saturday — evidently still to convince the coach he’s ready to start at Test level.
Rio Dyer
He did well to notch his try against Italy but he’s another one whose defence needs attention. There were five tackles missed, a concerning tally by any standard, with Sam Warburton recently highlighting the importance of players having all-round games when he said: “Fifty percent of the game is defence.” Potentially, Josh Adams’ superior work in that area could help the Cardiff man survive if only one wing is to change — there won’t be a lot in it.
Owen Williams
A back injury apparently ruled Dan Biggar out of selection for the game in Rome, with Williams steady in his absence, his best moment being the tackle that stopped Italy from scoring just before half-time. There are signs that he could settle as a Test fly-half and Gatland will be conscious of the need for continuity in selection, but if Biggar is fit it will be a tight call.
Rhys Webb
Never say never, but there really shouldn’t be a debate about whether Webb should start or not.
Of course he should.
Wyn Jones
He hit the right notes with his rendition of the national anthem, but the game itself proved more of a challenge. Jones was another member of the five-missed-tackles brigade. There were a few purposeful charges, but the Welsh scrum also struggled. Gareth Thomas may just edge a place here.
Ken Owens
The Sheriff has led from the front throughout the campaign. No suggestion of a change here.
Tomas Francis
Despite the odd glitch at scrum-time against Italy, Francis is expected to hold his place, for he is still the best option Wales have at No. 3 in the pushing and scrummaging game. There is an argument, too, that he deserves some kind of reward for being the only member of the starting lineup not to miss a tackle at Stadio Olimpico.
Adam Beard
Some might have been tempted last week to blame him for the Gary Lineker row and the recent blast of cold weather — he seemed to have the finger pointed at him for pretty much everything else. But Beard fronted up impressively in Italy. No need for him to feel anxious ahead of selection this week.
Dafydd Jenkins
There were a lot of tackles from the 20-year-old in Rome, as many as any other Welsh player, and some fine work at the lineout. He’d have wanted to make more than just the one carry and there were also three penalties against his name and four defensive lapses as well. A bit up and down, then. It’ll be a close call between him and Alun Wyn Jones.
Jac Morgan
His early substitution shouldn’t detract from a hard-working and physical effort against the Azzurri. He matched Jenkins tackle from tackle — each made 14 hits — and made ground with ball in hand. Morgan will be unlucky to lose his place.
Justin Tipuric
He seemed to be wherever the action was in Rome, pulling the defence together, organising and also snaffling two turnovers plus a lineout steal. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. He’ll be Wales’ No. 7 on Saturday.
Taulupe Faletau
All set for his hundredth Wales cap. It's hard to remember one completely-out-of-sorts game. First name on the team-sheet, then.
Read more:
Wales player ratings as Rhys Webb rolls back the years but winger frustrated after Gatland call
Warren Gatland Q&A: The players that pleased me and what we still have to work on
Wales finally win a Six Nations match as old face returns to make difference
