Warren Gatland may have been accused of a lot of things since his return as Wales head coach, but no-one can say he’s been predictable in selection.
Six changes for the Scotland game, nine for the match with England, back to six for Saturday's date with Italy in Rome — not even Nostradamus would have fancied his chances of second-guessing the Wales head coach’s team picks in this Six Nations.
Next to no-one’s position has appeared secure. Potentially, even the team’s bus driver might even have been keeping his head down.
Gatland can justify such turbulence by saying these are not normal rugby times in Welsh rugby and he’s running the rule over candidates for the World Cup.
Even so, he will not want his side to finish bottom of the Six Nations, a fate that will be on the cards should they come unstuck at Stadio Olimpico this weekend.
Here are the main headlines from the selection for the game in the Italian capital.
Webb returns to bring belief and leadership
Adam Jones tells a tale in the latest edition of Rugby World about how Mike Phillips offered him the best advice he received when the Lions toured South Africa in 2009.
“One morning, we were doing a World XV and I’d basically put the whole South Africa team in,” recalls Jones.
“He told me if I wanted to be the best prop in the world, then I had to stop giving these people too much respect. I realised he was right.”
Phillips believed in himself. To the power of 10,000. Rhys Webb is out of the same mould.
There have been no reports of the scrum-half breezing around the Wales training camp saying 'crisis — what crisis?' after learning he’d be picked to face Italy on Saturday. But it's not hard to imagine Webb doing so.
That said, Wales are experiencing a major downturn, with 12 defeats in their last 15 matches.
Warren Gatland will look to the Ospreys man to inspire an upturn. “He’s been great in the squad,” said the head coach. “He brings that experience and a voice to that nine position.”
He should also bring leadership. If he’s on his game and is still able to cope with the pace of Test rugby, he will make a difference.
Do that and he'll be on course to figure at his first World Cup. A lot to play for, then.
Liam back too
A full-back with a dash of swagger seems to be the must-have item of the season in the Six Nations. Ireland have Hugo Keegan, Scotland Stuart Hogg, England boast Freddie Steward, Italy had the brilliant Ange Capuozzo until his injury and France possess Thomas Ramos in their ranks.
Wales brought Leigh Halfpenny back for the game with England and the Scarlets showcased his limitless courage, taking a series of high balls under the most severe pressure.
But there’s a case for believing Liam Williams on song peps Wales’ attacking game. He can beat defenders with an apparent economy of effort and he hits good lines.
At his best he also has a wonderful aerial game. The assumption is the self-styled bomb defuser was left out for the England game after picking up a yellow card in each of the first two Six Nations rounds, with coaches tending not to celebrate indiscipline.
His challenge, and it is a perennial one, is to operate on the edge while staying on the right side of the referee.
But at his best he can inspire those around him. Wales' attack will be more dangerous with Williams at No. 15.
The big change out wide
"Liam Williams comes in at full back. We did discuss whether we put Louis Rees-Zammit to full-back and how that would have looked. But he still hasn’t played a lot of rugby in terms of coming back from a relatively long injury with his ankle and we just felt with the way the game’s going to be and the pace of the game, that him coming off the bench and the impact he can have could be pretty important.”
So said Warren Gatland via the press release that accompanied the team announcement.
Maybe his words can be seen as a shot across the bows for Williams, a veiled warning of sorts that he needs to stop ending up on the naughty step during games.
Or maybe it was Gatland’s way of giving Rees-Zammit a soft landing in terms of the 22-year-old being left out after the England game.
The Gloucester player has so much to offer in attack with his extraordinary pace but he’s a work in progress in defence.
“Zammit is Wales’ best player in attack — without a shadow of a doubt,” said Sam Warburton after the England game. “Out of the back-three options we have, in defence he’s the worst. I feel bad about saying that, but he is. High ball, defensive rucks, tackle tech, clearing out rucks: he makes errors there, but you play him because his attacking ability is genuinely world-class.
“But he’ll get there. He’ll learn all those defensive traits and that’s fine. Even then, you have an argument to say do you go with a Liam Williams, Josh Adams, George North, Leigh Halfpenny? You can have a case for those guys over Louis Rees-Zammit.
“There are not many guys who are shoo-ins and that’s the problem Wales have compared to England.”
In fairness, Rees-Zammit did make significant advances in his all-round game last term.
But he has to settle for a place on the bench this week. In comes Rio Dyer, another player who has rare attacking skills but a few areas to brush up on in defence. What has marked him out in his early outings for Wales is his willingness to look for work.
He is bold and will score tries if the ball is sent his way. Wales have to engineer those chances, though.
Wyn's in
There’s a return at loosehead prop for Wyn Jones, who was left out of the matchday squad completely for the England game after starting against Scotland.
How Wales could do with the Jones of 2021 putting in an appearance, the Test Lion who impressed so much on tour with the best of British and Irish rugby that he was reckoned to be a candidate to lead them in Australia in 2025.
Injuries have bedevilled him since. But he remains an awkward customer at scrum-time and a player who grafts and can achieve turnovers.
It would be good from a Welsh perspective to see him at his best.
Seeing France’s loosehead prop Cyril Baille crashing into contact against Scotland and England’s Ellis Genge make 61 metres with ball in hand against Wales highlights how high the bar is set when it comes to dynamic front-row forwards.
No longer is it enough just to do the basics well. Gatland will be looking for Jones to not only deliver in the set-pieces but also make a mark around the field.
Youngster on the up
Alun Wyn Jones’ effort against England attracted what theatre critics call mixed reviews.
One website awarded him a 7.5 out of 10 in their player ratings, saying he had been “excellent at set-piece and made some truly fantastic clearouts when he had no right”. He also snaffled opposition lineout ball and achieved a couple of ruck turnovers while making 10 tackles and not missing.
But the former England full-back Mike Brown had a different take on matters, accusing Jones of “just walking around” in the heat of battle.
Whatever, the former skipper stands down for the game in Rome, with Dafydd Jenkins coming in at lock.
At 20, Jenkins is still learning the ropes in senior rugby but Wales are trying to accelerate his development.
They will look to the 6ft 7in Exeter Chiefs lock to provide some ballast up front but also athleticism around the field and so far in this championship the signs have been encouraging, with Jenkins making more metres than any of the other locks despite his few minutes on the pitch.
Further evidence of his quality will be the requirement this weekend.
Jac's a six hitter
Wales have been experimenting in this tournament and Morgan found himself at No. 8 against Scotland and out of the side against England after a start at six in the opener against Ireland.
Now he’s back at blindside for the trip to Rome.
Wales will want him to show the same appetite for carrying that he demonstrated in the autumn, most notably against Australia when he made 115 metres from 15 runs and was billed ‘a one-man wrecking machine’ by Warren Gatland.
But Morgan is good in other areas, too. Indeed, despite the Osprey missing the England game, there are only two other players, Jamie Ritchie and James Lowe, who have achieved more turnovers in the championship this year, while Morgan brings physicality to his defence.
There could come a point when he settles in his preferred position of openside. But Gatland knows the 23-year-old will perform wherever he’s picked.
In Rome, he will need to if Wales are not to come unstuck again. Indeed, the whole side will need to deliver.
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