Early signs were encouraging that Sir Keir Starmer might be able to build a genuinely warm and mutually advantageous personal relationship with the US president. Downing Street had reported that during a recent meeting with the US special envoy to the UK – Mark Burnett, a British TV executive who worked with Donald Trump on The Apprentice – Sir Keir “took a call from President Trump”.
In the same meeting, Sir Keir and Mr Burnett “agreed on the unique and special nature of the UK-US relationship, the strength of our alliance and the warmth of the connection between the two countries” and “emphasised the huge potential for even stronger collaboration on trade, tech and cultural matters between the US and the UK and looked forward to working together”. A visit to the White House later this month was also confirmed.
Yet today, not only has Sir Keir broken ranks with the US over the future of Ukraine and Nato – but Mr Trump has announced that he will impose tariffs on the UK, and “reciprocal tariffs” on all other countries, in what has become the first major test between the two leaders since the US president took recent office.
The policy published by the White House included VAT as a target – which analysts have suggested could knock around £24bn off UK gross domestic product over the next two years. Minister Peter Kyle today warned that Britain will “respond accordingly”.
It also comes as JD Vance made a bizarre attack on European democracies, casting them as a threat to free speech, while expressing support for Brexit and singling out the UK for criticism over immigration.
What is to become of the much-vaunted “special relationship” now? There were, initially, signs of hope following the reported success of the long pre-election dinner Sir Keir and David Lammy, the foreign secretary, enjoyed at Trump Tower. Since his inauguration, the president has remarked of Starmer: “I like him a lot”, adding that “he’s doing a good job”.
Yet as a former human rights lawyer and undoubtedly a “woke” progressive, the prime minister hadn’t seemed an obvious fit as an unofficial world Trump whisperer – and there are fears now of a further drop in relations.
As we have witnessed since Mr Trump’s return to office – with his boasts of productive calls with Vladimir Putin over the fate of Ukraine at the hands of Russia – relations with this rambunctious leader can be surprising at best, and at worst sour rapidly.
The transition from the highly rated Karen Pearce to Peter Mandelson as ambassador in DC seems to have gone as smoothly as it could; yet the spectre of previous embarrassing remarks by Sir Keir’s colleagues – including Mr Lammy – about Mr Trump’s fitness for office were perhaps the first signs that cracks, while papered over, have not disappeared completely.
As a more concrete gesture of support, the UK sided with the US and against the European Union at this week’s artificial intelligence conference in Paris, putting growth ahead of safety. It had been hoped that this might be appreciated by Vice-president Vance, somewhat isolated at the event – but his latest comments from Munich, in which he criticised freedom-of-speech laws in the UK and social policies across Europe, prove that much friction remains.
It would certainly serve Britain’s vital national interests to be listened to. The stakes for the US-UK relationship, “special” or otherwise, are invariably high. They were, after all, forged in two world wars, as a matter of national survival for the UK. Now the issues on the agenda remain vital, and it is certainly crowded.
At a time when the British economy is struggling to avoid recession, the kind of reciprocal tariffs being proposed by the United States on British exports could wipe out the UK’s feeble growth prospects, costing many jobs, particularly across the automotive, aero-engineering, Scotch whisky and financial services sectors.
More widely, as an unusually open economy the UK will suffer from any slowdown in global trade, and from a further slowdown in the European economy. Some tariffs may prove to be inevitable: Sir Keir’s task may be one of damage limitation, but it will be a challenge in any case.
The other issues, potentially even more serious, are interlinked: Ukraine, European security, and the future of Nato. The route to some sort of lasting understanding here will be more difficult to navigate. To his great credit, Sir Keir has maintained British support for Volodymyr Zelensky, and has now reiterated the UK’s commitment to Ukraine “being on an irreversible path to Nato” – a stance sharply at odds with that of the Trump administration, which sees this as “unrealistic” in any negotiated settlement.
Mr Trump will, understandably, press Sir Keir to spend more on defence; Sir Keir might be well advised to take the opportunity to suggest that if the UK purchased more defence equipment from the US, it would help the US-UK trade balance in goods – and thus obviate the need for extra tariffs.
As for securing Ukraine’s new, de facto borders, even a token presence of American troops would help to reassure the whole of Europe about American intentions, and would help to protect the rumoured US-Ukraine resources deal, securing a supply of rare earth minerals so vital to new industries.
Preventing another invasion of Ukraine by Putin, in other words, is very much directly in America’s industrial interests. Maximising Ukrainian control of its easternmost provinces, where such minerals are located, is also obviously crucial. Sir Keir should find Mr Trump persuadable on such terms.
The British have traditionally fancied themselves as the essential transatlantic “bridge” between America and Europe. Events have not always allowed that aspiration to be fulfilled. Yet from Churchill and FDR to Macmillan and JFK – and on to Thatcher and Reagan and Blair and Bush – the personal dimension has proved indispensable at critical junctures.
The unlikely Trump-Starmer partnership must flourish. Britain – and the rest of Europe – is depending on it.
