One of Australia’s favourite foods, the meat pie, was reported to be an endangered species this past week, with headlines warning the “iconic” food was “dying out”, and reports citing falling sales. But reports of its death may be somewhat exaggerated.
While meat pie sales have dipped to their lowest levels since 2019, it could be a case of the nation recalibrating its pie-eating habits after Covid-19 lockdowns sent demand for frozen pies into overdrive.
When Australians entered lockdown in March 2020, meat pie sales jumped 40% on the same time the previous year. They fell again in the latter part of the year as lockdown restrictions lifted in many cities, only to rise again when the new wave of Delta lockdowns hit in 2021.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics tracks meat pie sales as a distinct category within the national accounts.
The latest supermarket scanner data released this month reveals meat pie consumption has returned to the pre-pandemic normal; the $105m Australians spent on pies in March 2023 just edges out the $100m spent in the same month in 2019.
“It’s too early to call for the demise of the meat pie,” according to Dr Nalini Prasad from the University of New South Wales school of economics. “Meat pie consumption did increase during the pandemic but is back to where it was before the pandemic.”
The ABS data above comes from supermarkets and bakeries but does not include outlets such as takeaway shops, and therefore does not capture all Australians tucking into the national snack.
Garlo’s Pies, for example, a Sydney-based company that serves the whole country, divides its business between the pies sold in supermarkets, petrol and convenience stores, aviation, as well as the “route trade” – pubs, clubs, schools, cafes and other independent operators that serve pies hot.
General manager Jackson Garlick said during the lockdowns “the only way people were able to get their pie fix was going into supermarkets, so we saw an incredible uplift in Coles and Woolworths in that time, which basically kept our business alive”.
The business experienced year-on-year growth during the pandemic years 2019-2021 due to 20% growth in the supermarket industry, despite a 100% decline in other industries such as the route trade and aviation.
“Covid saw a massive increase in pies. We put that down to people being isolated, locked in at home and pies being such a convenient and affordable meal,” Garlick said.
A bigger trend for prepared meals
A study by the UNSW business school researcher Timothy Neal into panic-buying at the outset of the pandemic found Australians panicked more than any other country. “Meat pies would probably be one of the first things people would hoard or panic-buy,” as a frozen meat-based product, Neal said.
However, even after the initial panic-buying Australians continued to buy pies as part of a wider trend for consuming more frozen and prepared meals as a substitution for people spending money in cafes, restaurants and takeaway outlets, Prasad said.
The consumption of frozen and prepared meals has continued to increase since the pandemic, Prasad said, albeit at slower rates of growth.
Yearly revenue growth in the prepared meals industry during 2020-21 was 3% – double the current rate of 1.5%, which has dropped back as consumers have returned to eating out, according to Matthew Reeves, a senior industry analyst at Ibisworld.
Reeves said the 3% figure might not look as impressive because as more firms came online during 2020, the increased competition suppressed prices. However, “at the company level, there was some real clear winners”.
Lite n’ Easy’s revenue lifted 22% in 2020-21, while Covid-19 was “a real kickstarter” for My Muscle Chef, whose revenue grew 200% in 2019-20 and a further 93% in 2020-21, Reeves said.
Despite lockdowns ending, My Muscle Chef has continued double-digit growth in the past two years. Over the same period, Coles has increased its ready meals range by almost 30%.
Reeves believes the players in the prepared-meals industry which have managed to hold on to the pandemic momentum are offering consumers convenience at the same time as healthier alternatives to the more traditional prepared meals like frozen pizzas.
He believes the pandemic spike in meat pie sales fits into a temporary trend for comfort food during the lockdown, whereas consumers continue to turn to the healthier prepared meals even post-lockdown.
Anand Surujpal, the general manager of marketing and innovation at Patties Foods, which owns Four’N Twenty, said the company had seen record pie sales even now that lockdowns had lifted.
“Even with the growth over Covid, Patties sales have never been stronger, with Four’N Twenty year-on-year growth at a whopping 20% in retail and Patties group sales up 40% across convenience,” Surujpal said.
The CEO of Patties Foods, Paul Hitchcock, told 3AW people were picking up pies “more than ever” because pies were good value in the current economic climate.
