For the people of Lebanon, last week’s agreement to halt the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah comes as a huge relief. The 14-month conflict, sparked by the 7 October 2023 Hamas terrorist atrocities, caused about 4,000 deaths, inflicted appalling destruction and displaced hundreds of thousands of residents on either side of the Israel-Lebanon border. Now there is a semblance of calm. Long may it last.
For the people of Israel, the ceasefire appears more of a mixed blessing. Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared a famous victory. He says Israelis who fled Hezbollah’s rockets may safely return home – though not yet. It’s undoubtedly true that Hezbollah’s military capabilities and leadership have been significantly degraded. Given Hezbollah joined the conflict to support Hamas, it follows that Hamas has been further weakened by the humbling of a key ally.
Yet Israelis with homes in the north are unconvinced this US-brokered “cessation of hostilities” will be permanent. Many on the right believe the offensive should continue, a view supported by public opinion polls. There have already been truce violations by both sides. Refusing to concede defeat, Hezbollah characterises its very survival as a victory. Netanyahu is ominously threatening to resume “intensive war”.
Israel’s belligerent, hard-right coalition government may now switch its focus back to Gaza, thereby further impeding efforts to stop the fighting there and secure the release of about 100 remaining Israeli hostages, mostly held by Hamas. Netanyahu and his allies attach more importance to their own political fortunes than to the hostages’ lives – so hostage families and opposition critics believe – and don’t want the war to end.
Despite Israel’s brutal invasion, which has caused the deaths of more than 44,000 Palestinians and reduced the territory to rubble, the war in Gaza, unlike Lebanon, is far from over. To stay in office, hold his coalition together and avoid an overdue reckoning for the 7 October security failures, Netanyahu needs the “total victory” over Hamas he has vaingloriously promised. Thus the concessions and compromises demanded by Hamas for any hostage deal – a halt to the war, a full troop withdrawal and the freeing of Palestinian prisoners – are, for him, politically unacceptable.
It is evident that Israel’s leadership has radical plans for Gaza. According to Israeli media reports and outside observers, these include the de-population, voluntary or otherwise, of large areas of northern and central Gaza and the salami-slicing of the territory into West Bank-style zones under indefinite Israeli military control. Although officially denied, large-scale demolitions and the rapid construction of buffer corridors, army camps and roads are thought to pave the way for re-establishment of Israeli Jewish settlements.
Israel’s leading progressive newspaper, Haaretz, has exposed these plans in damning detail – and has been penalised by Netanyahu for its temerity. In an editorial last week, Haaretz showed it would not be silenced and set out the stark choice facing Israel.
“Following the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon and the achievements against Hezbollah, the equation is clearer than ever: it’s the renewal of settlements and a perpetual war in Gaza, or a hostage deal and ending the war there. It’s death versus life. A state committed to its moral and human image must choose the latter option,” Haaretz said.
Will Netanyahu, the fugitive war crimes suspect, and his supporters heed this advice? Unlikely. They have no thought for morality, no care for humanity. And so the terrible suffering of Gaza’s people and Israel’s hostages continues. For them there is no “cessation of hostilities”, only unceasing violence.
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