Yuki Tsunoda has officially replaced Liam Lawson at the next F1 race in Japan – his home race – in a huge early-season switch at Red Bull.
Lawson, 23, has been demoted back down to Racing Bulls after a torrid first two rounds of the season in Australia and China, with an announcement confirming the move on Thursday morning.
For Tsunoda, who has been a driver for the junior team since 2021, it is a dream scenario for his home grand prix in Suzuka, as he takes to the cockpit for a front-of-the-pack team for the first time.
The role of Max Verstappen’s teammate has been a poisoned chalice in recent years, but Tsunoda’s form has improved in the last two years and he recently said he “100 per cent” backs himself to perform in the main team if given the opportunity.
But what do the stats say? The Independent takes a look at the numbers behind Tsunoda vs Lawson, in the battle for the Red Bull second seat.
In the past week, there has been a fiery war of words between Tsunoda and Lawson, who have raced each other all the way back to junior formula.
Lawson has insisted he deserves his big shot, saying last week prior to his performance in China: “If I look back over our career, I was team-mates with him in F3 and I beat him.
“In Euro Formula, I was team-mates with him in New Zealand, and I beat him there. And then in F1 last season, I think honestly, if I look at all the times he got promoted instead of me in those early years, then no.
TSUNODA VS LAWSON - 2023 (race results)
Dutch GP - YT: 15th; LL: 13th
Italian GP - YT: DNS; LL 11th
Singapore GP - YT: Ret; LL: 9th
Japan GP - YT: 12th; LL: 11th
Qatar GP - YT: 15th; LL: 17th
Tsunoda 1-4 Lawson
“He’s had his time. Now it’s my time.”
Tsunoda, however, had other ideas when asked about the prospect of a promotion for his home race.
"Yeah, why not, always,” he said. “In Japan? Yeah, 100 per cent. I mean, the car is faster."
But what do the stats say between these two, in their head-to-heads at AlphaTauri/RB?
Lawson did finish above Tsunoda as he returned to the grid last year, scoring two points with a ninth-place finish at the US Grand Prix, while Tsunoda finished 14th.
However, Tsunoda finished higher than Lawson in the four remaining races where both drivers took the chequered flag. Both drivers scored points in Brazil, while Tsunoda finished in the top 10 in Las Vegas.
Following his points-scoring finish in Sin City, Tsunoda acknowledged his keenness to step up to the Red Bull seat in 2025.
“What I can control is my performance, which I’m showing this year,” he said.
“I trust myself and show my consistent results as much as possible. Hopefully, they [Red Bull] change their mind. I will do as much as I can, I know what I can do when I step into Red Bull.”
TSUNODA VS LAWSON - 2024 (race results)
United States GP - YT: 14th; LL: 9th
Mexican GP - YT: Ret; LL: 16th
Brazilian GP - YT: 7th; LL: 9th
Las Vegas GP - YT: 9th; LL: 16th
Qatar GP - YT: 13th; LL: 14th
Abu Dhabi GP - YT: 12th; LL: 17th
Tsunoda 4-2 Lawson
In 2023, when Lawson filled in for an injured Daniel Ricciardo over five races, the Kiwi actually finished above Tsunoda in all but one grand prix, also claiming points with a memorable ninth place in the humidity of Singapore.
While race results are prone to a whole host of extenuating factors though, a more reliable head-to-head record is usually qualifying results, given the one-lap nature.
Tsunoda out-qualified Lawson 7-2 (including sprints) when the New Zealander returned to the grid last year. In 2023, for the five races Lawson filled in, it was 4-2 in Tsunoda’s favour.
Meanwhile, this year, Lawson in qualifying has been catastrophic. At the first race in Melbourne, he qualified 18th on the grid and, ultimately, started from the pit-lane on Sunday. Tsunoda, meanwhile, qualified a terrific fifth on the grid.
Then last week in China, Lawson qualified 20th in both the sprint qualifying and the grand prix qualifying sessions, and his exasperation with the car was clear.
Yet Tsunoda qualified eighth for the sprint and ninth for the grand prix, recording his only points of the 2025 season so far with a sixth-place finish in the sprint – above the likes of Kimi Antonelli and Lando Norris.
In Melbourne, Lawson crashed out while Tsunoda finished just outside the points in 12th. And while Lawson finished above Tsunoda in Shanghai, that was caused by a failed Racing Bulls strategy as well as a damaged front-wing for the Japanese driver.
Overall then, the advantage on the timesheet lies with Tsunoda; perhaps inevitably, given he has raced in 89 F1 races compared to just 13 for his rival.
So while this decision is undoubtedly brutal, many see it as the call Christian Horner should have made in December, when he decided to drop Sergio Perez.
