Any reduction in fighting must be welcomed when millions of civilians are trapped amid it. Already, more than 450 lives have been lost and thousands have been injured since the clash between Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, head of the Sudanese army, and Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti), the leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, began on 15 April. Yet far from holding out the prospect of a sustainable improvement, the 72-hour ceasefire in Sudan is only a brief respite in the conflict, and one pockmarked by violence.
Even if it holds for the full three days, what comes next may be worse. The deal, brokered by the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, has allowed evacuations from the capital, Khartoum, and other cities. With foreign nationals safely out of the way, the two belligerents will be able to return to battle with little international attention. They appear to see this as a fight to the finish.
Much of the concern in the UK has centred on the evacuation of British nationals. This especially involves the performance of the Foreign Office, which helped diplomatic staff to leave first, has had poor communications with other citizens and been late in organising their evacuation, and is only allowing British nationals or dependents with existing approval on to flights – all in stark contrast with other European countries. It has serious questions to answer.
But the far more pressing issue is what will happen to Sudanese civilians. Hundreds of thousands are queueing at the country’s borders, with reported waits of up to three days to cross into Egypt, without food, water or medical supplies. Others say that Saudi Arabia has been prioritising foreign nationals for ferry crossings. Many more remain at home, too ill to leave, unable to scrape together the cash needed to travel, or too scared to risk leaving shelter – especially when outbreaks of violence have continued – for an uncertain future. They face the prospect of intensified fighting, with dwindling food stocks and without basic services in places where medical services have essentially shut down.
The two sides have already shown a deadly disregard for civilians, with hospitals and homes under attack. The World Health Organization has warned of a “huge biological risk” after fighters occupied a public health laboratory and ousted its staff. Prisoners – including a former politician wanted for alleged crimes against humanity – have been released from jails, heightening concerns about the conflict splintering and expanding. With foreign nationals gone and cities significantly emptied, fighting is likely to intensify. As António Guterres, the UN secretary general, warned on Tuesday, the power struggle is not only putting Sudan’s future at risk but also “lighting a fuse that could detonate across borders, causing immense suffering for years”.
It is essential that those trying to flee are given safe passage and refuge, as Sudan has itself offered to others escaping wars. The international community should press Egypt and others to relax their visa restrictions and speed up crossings, as well as helping host countries to provide the support needed on arrival. The UN estimates that up to 20,000 people have so far crossed from Darfur into Chad, which is already home to hundreds of thousands of refugees from Sudan. Poor and fragile nations cannot manage this alone. Expecting them to do so will increase the risk of this violence destabilising the broader region and putting many more in danger.
