Just before Christmas, Labour’s shadow cabinet received a salutary briefing on recent political comebacks that defied polling predictions. As the party’s poll lead over the Conservatives hovers close to 20 points, the message was clear: however dispirited, despairing and divided Rishi Sunak’s Conservative party appears to be, Labour needs to maintain its discipline, avoid complacency and keep on doing what it has been doing.
In essence, this is exactly what Sir Keir Starmer did on Thursday at the Bristol and Bath Science Park – a venue designed to project a future-facing vibe, in contrast to 14 years of economic stagnation under five Tory prime ministers. Sir Keir’s heavily trailed speech contained no new policy; the point of it – in a year when Labour has a chance of achieving its most significant election victory since 1997 – was to paint with a broader brush, outlining a vision of necessary national renewal.
Sir Keir was on the money in highlighting the need to clean up politics, after a chaotic and disreputable period in which Partygate, financial misconduct and lobbying scandals have contributed to a collapse in trust. He was also right to say that Britain needs to find a release from the divisive and cynical populism that has become the Tories’ default mode of government since Brexit. And after being subjected to various forms of mismanagement since 2010, it is incontestable that the country is, as Sir Keir said, “in a total mess” with “services on their knees”.
Yet armed with this powerful diagnosis of the nation’s ills, Labour continues to exhibit extreme caution regarding the detail of proposed cures. Sir Keir’s speech notably omitted any mention of an already watered-down pledge to borrow £28bn a year to invest in green jobs and industry. Previously a cornerstone of Labour’s plan for economic growth, this commitment is now, it seems, contingent on that growth. Similarly, Sir Keir and his shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, have ruled out major changes to income or wealth taxes, while highlighting the raised tax burden under the Conservatives. Labour plausibly promises a more honourable and competent administration than that which has come before, but when it comes to crucial political dividing lines, it hugs its opponents close.
The logic of this small-c conservatism is clear: way ahead in the polls, and justifiably hopeful that the country simply wants to see the back of the Tories, Labour’s exclusive preoccupation is to close off traditional lines of attack on its stewardship of the economy. Anyone who recalls fatal “Labour tax bombshell” headlines from past campaigns will sympathise with the impulse. But there are also risks attached to not taking any risks. The emphasis on “hope” in Sir Keir’s speech responded to an emerging sense that, if it is to inspire the huge swing required to win a majority, Labour needs to show more than a dour devotion to “fiscal responsibility”. The best way to do that in the coming year would be to boldly make the case for public investment as a catalyst for economic revival.
Importantly, such an approach would also secure a stronger mandate for front-foot government, in challenging times which will demand precisely that. After suffering the effects of unnecessary and prolonged austerity, the public rightly has no appetite for more of the same. That is a truth which could, and should, be a winning argument for Labour in the year ahead.
