Rishi Sunak’s shuttle diplomacy – which took him from Belfast to Munich over the weekend – was an attempt to seize the moment over the Northern Ireland protocol before his enemies within the Tory party did. However, the grinding conflict over the issue reveals his government engaged in a struggle just to stop things from getting worse. Mr Sunak may get his way over the protocol, which keeps the region in the EU’s single market for goods – thereby creating a customs border in the Irish Sea. But his Tory opponents are determined not to make it easy for him.
The prime minister is taking a risk by doing the right thing and seeking to normalise the UK-EU relationship. The polls suggest the public backs closer ties with Brussels, which is an opening for Mr Sunak’s pragmatism. There was even talk of Mr Sunak’s team wanting to use a breakthrough on the protocol as a foundation for a more comprehensive improvement in ties with the bloc. However, he is leaving his right wing exposed. Hardline Brexiters as well as political enemies, most notably Boris Johnson, lie in wait to pounce.
The bomb primed to explode under Mr Sunak’s government, if he fails to get his way, is a bill in the Lords, introduced by Mr Sunak’s predecessor, Liz Truss, when she was foreign secretary. This permits the UK government to ignore parts of the protocol it did not like – a clear breach of international law. If this legislation moves to the Commons, it would probably trigger a trade war with Brussels. This would be bad for Britain, but suit the interests of Mr Sunak’s opponents within the party. They want permanent hostility with the EU and would relish blaming Brussels for “punishing” Britain while pushing to deviate further from the bloc’s rules.
Also looking to profit from the chaos is the Democratic Unionist party. It went from extolling the opportunities of the protocol to leading the charge to have it scrapped. In the run-up to council elections this May, it is unlikely to back any new deal from Mr Sunak. The DUP’s protest against the Northern Ireland protocol has meant the power‑sharing executive in Stormont has been suspended. Such intransigence would have delayed new laws for organ transplants but for the actions of the Northern Ireland secretary, Chris Heaton‑Harris, who will now pass the necessary legislation at Westminster. While Mr Heaton-Harris ought to be praised for his humane act, he also has to be careful. The cabinet minister cannot – without inflaming nationalist sentiment – have Westminster routinely solve the region’s problems that have been stalled by the devolution deadlock.
Time is running out for Mr Sunak. His Conservative party is unpopular – and the party faces a wipeout in May’s local polls. Getting the protocol to work will grease UK-EU trade and help the economy recover faster. Mr Sunak attempted to defuse the threat of the Brexit ultras in the European Research Group by keeping its generals as his ministers. But this has not worked. Ms Truss and Mr Johnson are circling. Mr Sunak is right to think that the Tories could only get voters’ attention if they had something to say about the things that concerned them. So far, he has retreated in the face of Tory opposition. If he is intent on fixing the economy, Mr Sunak will need to advance towards his enemies.
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