If anyone had a scintilla of doubt about what lay behind the multiple convictions of Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan, their timing was designed to dispel it. He was already behind bars and banned from running in Thursday’s election. Then, last Tuesday, he was sentenced to 10 years for leaking official secrets. Last Wednesday, he was handed another 14 years for corruption related to selling state gifts. At the weekend, he and his wife each received a seven-year sentence in a case relating to their marriage, which the verdict declared “un-Islamic” – hammering home the message to those still planning to vote for candidates from his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party.
That the delayed election is taking place suggests the army is reasonably confident it has seen off Mr Khan’s challenge, though he remains Pakistan’s most popular politician. Elections are welcome in a nation that has spent half its life under direct military rule. But no elected prime minister has completed a full term in office and, at the best of times, the generals have merely retreated backstage. In 2022, the outgoing army chief acknowledged its “constant” meddling.
He vowed that it would no longer interfere. But since his speech – made not long after Mr Khan was ousted in a vote of confidence widely believed to be military-orchestrated – other PTI leaders have been jailed too, or pressed to leave the party. Supporters have been detained and harassed. Thousands of candidates had their nomination papers rejected. Officials stripped the PTI of its cricket bat electoral symbol – essential in a country where 40% of the population is illiterate. The media have been largely banned from mentioning Mr Khan.
The 71-year-old rose to power as he basked in the military’s favour. His shortcomings in office included increasing authoritarianism and poor economic performance. But it was once he angered the generals that the die was cast. He was ousted and hit with charges – just as Nawaz Sharif had been before him. Now Mr Sharif is expected to become prime minister for a fourth time. As Mr Khan fell from grace, Mr Sharif returned from self-exile, with his convictions for corruption overturned and his lifetime bar on political office scrapped. The scion of another political dynasty is also contesting the election: Benazir Bhutto’s son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, of the Pakistan People’s party.
The relative calm in recent months – compared with the violent protests that greeted Mr Khan’s arrest last year – reflects the crackdown on his supporters. Many may not bother to vote in an election where expectations are so low. But without a credible result, the risk of unrest persists.
The bigger issue is that more military interference will not help Pakistan. Its 230 million citizens have seen unemployment, inflation and poverty surge thanks to poor governance as well as the pandemic and devastating floods. Its foreign debt has ballooned. The security crisis has worsened dramatically since the Taliban reclaimed power in Afghanistan: almost 1,000 died in attacks in border areas last year.
Mr Sharif, seen as relatively economically competent, may be able to address some of these issues. But the military already appears to be putting down markers. Political polarisation, dysfunctional institutions and army string-pulling can’t fix Pakistan’s problems. As long as the generals decide who wins and how they govern, they will be the real victors.
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