When Newcastle United were sat without a victory and 8/15 favourites to be relegated at the start of December some observers were queuing up to tell Geordie fans the club was doomed.
It was an easy shout to make back then as the Magpies were slumped at the bottom of the table after a 1-1 draw with Norwich City on just seven points.
The statistics and the history books told us then that no side had ever survived the drop after such a poor start to a Premier League campaign.
Back then I tried to err on the side of positivity and suggest the 10 wins needed that would take Newcastle to 37 points - and keep the Magpies afloat in the top-flight.
My win percentage could be better on that score but I've managed to call three games from the five I suggested as wins and the other two have been draws.
Newcastle beat Burnley, Everton, Aston Villa but only drew with Man United and Watford, two encounters United came close to winning.
However, they recovered other points that I didn't expect back in early December, such as the 1-0 win at Leeds and the creditable draw at West Ham at the weekend.
That leaves Newcastle on 22 points and sitting in 17th place but in a much healthier position than the morning after the draw with the Canaries.
With 14 matches remaining they need 15 points to reach 37 points.
What does that mean after a slight recalculation?
It's five more wins from the six other games I called being the rearranged trip to Brentford (a) this weekend, Brighton & Hove Albion (March 5), Southampton (March 10), Crystal Palace (March 19) and Norwich (a) April 23.
Burnley refusing to lie down
Up until Burnley's victory last night against Spurs at Turf Moor, things were looking a little bit more comfortable for the Magpies but that win has certainly focused minds on Tyneside, not least as Burnley have a game in hand.
I actually thought that 35 points might be enough but that may now depend on Burnley and the form of others above.
Let's also not forget how revved up the Clarets will be to get the job done without Chris Wood who Newcastle pinched via an escape clause in January.
But with Norwich and Watford slightly adrift at the bottom, the battle to avoid being the third team to go down - assuming the Hornets and Canaries can't make up the gap - is wide open.
Not too long ago it looked like it was going to be four teams vying for one place with Burnley, United, Norwich and Watford locked in a battle at the bottom.
Spiralling form from Leeds and Brentford though has sucked them towards the abyss while Everton have struggled to get a new manager bounce from Frank Lampard's arrival.
Leicester and Aston Villa will be confident of getting the job done but any poor run of form in the run-in means nothing should be discounted.
A quick glance at the form table from the last six matches sees the Bees, Leicester and Spurs in the bottom three.
For all Tottenham's problems, they aren't going down with 39 points already collected!
But Brentford and Leicester have work to do and must juggle their Europa Conference League campaign with top-flight fixtures, something - as Newcastle discovered in 2013 - that's never easy.
Back then United were not assured safety until the penultimate game with a 2-1 win at Queens Park Rangers after a run to the Europa League quarter-finals against Benfica almost ended up costing them dear.
With minds on the task in hand for the modern-day Magpies, the key to survival will be getting the job done early.
Indeed, a scan down the fixture list sees Newcastle facing Liverpool (h), Man City (a) and Arsenal (h) before that last day trip to Burnley.
You wouldn't want to rely on United having to win any of those games if it came down to the crunch.
Lee Ryder's overall verdict
Having stated the importance of a good January window in order to nail down the required wins in the Premier League the first part of my hopes for early 2022 was duly delivered with a £91million shopping spree to bring in Kieran Trippier, Chris Wood, Bruno Guimarães, Matt Targett and Dan Burn.
The concern then is the same concern as now, whatever we do - don't leave it down to Burnley away on the final day of the season.
A May 22 trip to Turf Moor, when sleet is still a possibility beneath the Lancashire hills, has all the makings of an absolute horror show.
Bearing in mind Burnley have the experience and know-how to escape relegation trouble the prospect of both teams looking after themselves is still a big possibility.
Troubled Everton, inexperienced and nervous looking Brentford and a Leeds side that have lost three in a row and conceded 13 goals in the process could all be below Newcastle soon.
Overall, my verdict hasn't changed and I think Newcastle will survive but one thing is for certain and that is that their failure to win any of the first 14 games mean there is very little room for error.
Newcastle have more than enough quality and the return to form of Joe Willock is also a big plus while Kieran Trippier and Callum Wilson could yet play a part in the final few games.
The Magpies were not dead and buried in December and certainly aren't now.
