Week 3 was home to a handful of blowouts. Some, like the JV-varsity showdown between the Chicago Bears and Kansas City Chiefs, were expected. Others like the Jacksonville Jaguars’ continued misery at the hands of a Houston Texans team that’s rarely more than decent, were not.
And while we may have backed the Miami Dolphins to win at home against the Denver Broncos, it’s probably fair to say none of us were counting on the Dolphins to rack up more points in a single game than any NFL team since 1966.
That makes Mike McDaniel’s offense — and the greats it resembles most closely — the focus of today’s recap. Miami isn’t alone. Let’s also talk about how the regression gods have come for the Vikings, the AFC South leaders and an Arizona Cardinals team that’s more fun than it has any right to be.
1
The Dolphins turned into an elite offense so gradually I hardly noticed
Look, you score 70 points in an NFL game — especially 70 points in 52 minutes — you get to lead off this column. But it wasn’t just that Miami blew the doors off the Broncos. It was how.
Let’s look, for example, at De’Von Achane’s first NFL receiving touchdown.
TUA NO-LOOK SHOVEL PASS TD
📺: #DENvsMIA on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/UQdQ05hqXN pic.twitter.com/8IYZX0evXg— NFL (@NFL) September 24, 2023
Whoa. There you have:
a) a shovel pass to an explosive skill player,
b) from a quarterback who isn’t looking at the guy he’s throwing to,
c) thrown with his non-throwing hand.
That’s an increasing level of ridiculousness, but each stage is familiar for one reason: it’s the exact kind of [expletive] the Kansas City Chiefs would do.
I mean that as a compliment. Mike McDaniel designed an offense that can measure up to the gold standard of NFL offenses over the past five years. Sure, that’s an easy comparison to make when Tyreek Hill is playing a key role, but there’s more to it than just that.
Hill starred Sunday. He scored the game’s first touchdown and finished with nine catches for 157 yards because he is barely human. He was buttressed by a two-pronged tailback attack in Achane and Raheem Mostert, who filled the void left when Jaylen Waddle was ruled out due to injury. Those three players combined for nine touchdowns and one of the most potent, damaging offensive performances in recent history.
One of the more efficient halves of offensive football maybe ever https://t.co/TIlZIkUvAD pic.twitter.com/5peJES5bxR
— Brad Spielberger, Esq. (@PFF_Brad) September 24, 2023
But the Dolphins, despite some Chiefs tendencies, aren’t the Chiefs. For one, Patrick Mahomes has generally been thrilled to launch deep balls to any and all available candidates, averaging roughly four per game as a pro. Tua Tagovailoa doesn’t have that raw arm talent, so despite a home run hitter like Hill he’s throwing shorter passes — but with equal effect:
That’s a 300-plus yard performance in three quarters on the strength of two deep passes. Tagovailoa’s touchdown passes came via runs after the catch of 31, 23, 12 and seven yards. That’s not the calling card of the Chiefs; that’s the hallmark of McDaniel’s former team, the San Francisco 49ers.
So that’s where we’ve landed. The Dolphins are a hybrid of Kansas City and San Francisco. They’re what the Niners could have been with a more competent quarterback and slightly less potent defense. They’re what the Chiefs could have been with a Pro Bowl QB instead of a two-time MVP and a consistent running game. They are a beautiful, happy what-if story unfolding in real time.
NFL TEAM TIERS THROUGH WEEK 3 (pending SNF/MNF; note that there's 2 more MNF games this week)
The Dolphins offense l o l pic.twitter.com/J5FMpyhnSC
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) September 24, 2023
That rules. Watch as many Dolphins games as you can this season.
2
The football gods have snapped back at the Minnesota Vikings with full force
Last fall, the Vikings somehow went 13-4 with a negative-three point differential. This was based on a seemingly unsustainable 11-0 regular season record in games decided by eight points or fewer — a theory that bore fruit when Minnesota got to the postseason and immediately lost a home game to the New York Giants 31-24.
The fates declared the Twin Cities had not yet been punished enough for flying so close to the sun in 2022. The first three weeks of the new season have been an exhibition of pain for the 0-3 Vikings. Week 1 brought a three-point loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Week 2 saw comeback efforts fall just short in a 34-28 defeat against the Philadelphia Eagles. Week 3 was possibly the most heartbreaking game yet; a contest the Los Angeles Chargers were eager to give away and the Vikings were happy to give right back.
K9 CAME UP CLUUTTCCHHHHH pic.twitter.com/SemU9gDfu8
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) September 24, 2023
Amazingly, that clip fails to capture the full beauty of the collapse. With a four-point lead in hand, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley went for it on fourth-and-1 at his own 24-yard line, entrusting the ball to Joshua Kelley — a player who to that point had 10 carries for 11 yards. When this invariably failed, Minnesota took over just 24 yards from a game-winning touchdown.
The two sides traded penalties before a fourth-and-five completion spotted the ball at the five. Rather than spiking the ball to stop the clock, Kirk Cousins and a lackadaisical offense instead burned roughly 20 seconds of game clock to ensure a full set of downs on first-and-goal … but with only 12 seconds left in the game, rendering that effort moot. Even better, a harried Cousins rushed a pass into traffic, resulting in his second red zone interception in three games and sealing Minnesota’s fate at 0-3.
This was glorious and expected stupidity from two teams that attract it the same way horse crap brings flies. The lesser god of shenanigans that allowed them to win 13 games last season found their offering lacking and has snapped back with full force this September. Through three games the Vikings have turned the ball over nine times including a ridiculous seven fumbles. Five of those, including both Cousins’ interceptions, have come within the opponents’ 25-yard line. Three happened at their opponents’ two-yard line or closer.
These are not things that should happen at such volume at a professional level, yet here we are. Minnesota employs a quarterback who is throwing for more than 360 yards per game with a 9:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a passer rating well north of 100. It doesn’t matter, because whenever there’s an opportunity to seize a game the Vikings run screaming in the opposite direction.
Football is rarely fair, and if Minnesota had merely regressed to the mean it would be an untrustworthy 1-2 or 2-1 right now. Instead, the team is winless and has lost to Baker Mayfield and a Chargers team that opted to run into a damn brick wall on fourth-and-one deep in its own territory.
This is not the work of a flawed football team. It is the decision of vengeful gridiron gods, come to collect on the overdue balance of 2023. It’s been awesome to watch, as long as you’re not a Vikings fan.
3
The Colts -- the Colts! -- stand alone atop the AFC South
This is a column about things that were great about Week 3. As such, we’ll ignore the Jaguars’ continued disintegration against the Houston Texans (the Jags are 5-21 in their last 26 games against the Texans. This is a very sad rivalry). Instead, we’ll talk about the 2-1 team that sits alone in first place in the AFC South behind Gardner Minshew: the Indianapolis Colts.
This season has been an important return to form from Indy. It’s not difficult to understand how it happened.
The last time the Colts were coached by someone competent, they went 3-5-1; not great but a record that included wins over the Jaguars and, somehow, the Kansas City Chiefs. Then Frank Reich was fired and the keys were handed to Jeff Saturday, who was exactly as good a coach as you’d expect someone with zero sideline experience beyond the high school level to be.
That team suffered injuries to the offensive line — where only three players earned more than 62 percent of the team’s snaps — and defense. Its quarterbacks were a washed Matt Ryan, Nick Foles and Sam Ehlinger, a triumvirate in which the only active player this season (Ehlinger) was also the team’s third-string quarterback. There was nowhere to go but up.
The presence of Minshew and fourth overall pick Anthony Richardson has revitalized the offense, even without Jonathan Taylor. On Sunday, that left Zack Moss to pick up the pieces, and he responded with 145 total yards and a touchdown.
You got Mossed.
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/wSxip16Wcn
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) September 24, 2023
The more encouraging result from Sunday was the continued resilience of a defense that’s slowly returning to form. The 2022 Colts ranked 21st in defensive efficiency over the last half of the season at 0.006 expected points added (EPA) per snap — a number that rose to 0.046 EPA/snap on dropbacks (22nd best). This season, against a lineup with a pair of would-be MVP candidates in Trevor Lawrence and Lamar Jackson, Indianapolis moved up to eighth in EPA/play (-0.124). Adjust that for dropbacks only and you’re still in the negatives at -0.102.
That group came up clutch with the game on the line. The Ravens had four drives to score what would have been the winning points after Minshew Orlovsky-ed himself out the back of the end zone for a safety. They allowed 46 yards on 18 plays to give their offense — and kicker Matt Gay — the chance to erase a 19-16 deficit and escape with a win.
KWITY CHASES HIM DOWN.
📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/b01FhuklxF
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) September 24, 2023
(Was there pass interference on the potential game-deciding fourth-and-five that set up Indy’s game-winning kick? No, because the refs didn’t call it. If you’re not cheating, you’re not trying.)
This is building toward something sustainable in an AFC South where no one seems all that good. The Jaguars have been a mess, the Texans are still rebuilding and the Titans’ offensive line is such a black hole it threatens to take the entire franchise down with it. Minshew can provide replacement level quarterbacking and Richardson can be more than that, but a path back to the division title relies on that defense coming through with the game on the line the way it did in Baltimore.
Oh, and getting Jonathan Taylor back would help, too.
4
The Arizona Cardinals are chaos
First off, this was hilarious:
they really gave Gannon the gatorade bath for getting to 1-2 pic.twitter.com/t9OZi40n9q
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) September 24, 2023
The Cardinals did not win the Super Bowl. They did not clinch a playoff spot. They merely won their first game of the season.
But they did so by beating a team that looked like a legit Super Bowl threat after beating two (bad) teams by a composite score of 70-10 to start the season. So while dunking your coach for winning in Week 3 is some babytown frolics, it came at the expense of Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys and therefore at least made a wide swath of the NFL universe happy.
For two weeks it looked as though Arizona was constructing the most entertaining tanking job in NFL history. The Cardinals had allowed fourth quarter leads to slip away in both their losses as they trundled toward the ultimate goal of two top five draft picks next spring (they also hold the Texans’ selection, owing to this year’s deal for the third overall pick). That could have been the case in Week 3. Instead, they escaped with a win thanks to a late-game pick that briefly turned Dak Prescott into Kirk Cousins.
TURN US ALL THE WAY UP!!!!!@KyzirWhite8 x #BirdGang pic.twitter.com/DzFYDPqoWv
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) September 24, 2023
A defense that had given up 27 points in the fourth quarter of its last two games held an explosive Dallas squad to just three. Prescott’s 0.382 EPA/play over the first two weeks of the season trailed only Tua Tagovailoa among starting quarterbacks. Arizona pushed him down to -0.03 EPA/play in a game where the Cowboys were 11-point road favorites.
The Cardinals are getting just enough from Joshua Dobbs as well. He probably hasn’t earned himself a massive contract by any stretch, but he’s proven capable of being a solid backup for the next decade. It was suspicious when Arizona jettisoned Colt McCoy in order to roll with the journeyman understudy, but Dobbs’ play has been inoffensive at worst and a little above average at best. He’s not going to win you many games on his own, but he’s also not going to lose them — and that’s got value!
9 🤝 2@josh_dobbs1 x @Primetime_jet pic.twitter.com/60YuNXrUd4
— Arizona Cardinals (@AZCardinals) September 24, 2023
This may not be sustainable, but it’s not supposed to be. This is a team whose top defensive players Sunday were Kyzir White, Victor Dimukeje, Zaven Collins and Kei’Trel Clark. This is an offense where a connection between a quarterback traded (along with a seventh-round selection) for a fifth-round draft pick and Michael Wilson outgained Prescott and CeeDee Lamb. This Cardinal squad is not built to win games in 2023 but to prove that it could happen sometime in the future, and sooner rather than later.
In that regard, first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon is doing a pretty solid job. Arizona’s Week 3 win probably won’t be the start of a surprise playoff run. It will be a vital reminder that these Cardinals can surprise you, however. There’s no easy out when you face this team, rebuild or not.
