The biggest night in British film is nearly here: the BAFTA awards. For one night, the creme de la creme of the acting world will be gathering in London hoping to take home a prestigious gong, aka a statue of a golden face.
With the competition heating up – and a fair share of controversy already surrounding the awards race – calling the winners on the night itself is proving to be a tricky job. Already, Oscar frontrunner Emilia Pérez has fallen from contention after offensive tweets from lead actress, Karla Sofía Gascón, were dug up online.
Even without Emilia Pérez, the field is crowded, and the BAFTAs do have a reputation for throwing curveballs on the night. But we’ve rounded up our picks for who looks likely to walk away victorious on Sunday, and who might be left undeservedly empty-handed.
Best film
Will win: Conclave
Should win: The Brutalist
Edward Berger’s snappy adaptation of the hit novel looks set to be a sure-fire winner on the night: it boasts massive stars, is snappily directed and has gone down well with audiences. Despite that, the prize surely goes to The Brutalist, Brady Corbet’s labour of love that took years to make before being picked up by film-making titan A24. In terms of ambition, it’s hard to beat; as a safe bet, though, Conclave is more likely to scoop the prize on the night.
Best director
Will win: Brady Corbet for The Brutalist
Should win: Sean Baker for Anora
That said, BAFTA’s panel will surely want to award Corbet for the titanic effort it took him to create The Brutalist: years of effort, on a low budget, for a three-hour-plus, electrifying result that has steadily been gaining Oscars buzz since its release.
The field is refreshingly open this year – all five of the directors nominated have been done so for the first time – and while a nod for Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance would be nice, the film is also pretty divisive. A likelier bet is Sean Baker’s runaway hit Anora, which certainly deserves a gong for the way it’s permeated pop culture in the past year.
Outstanding debut by a British writer, director or producer
Will win: Kneecap
Should win: Kneecap
This one seems pretty done and dusted. The voters love it – the film has been nominated for a staggering six awards, including in original screenplay – and the story of three Irish-language punks with a penchant for rabble rousing is undeniably a lot of fun. What’s not to like?
Best British film
Will win: Conclave
Should win: Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
There are some strong contenders here (arguably with the exception of Gladiator II) but it seems all but assured that papal drama Conclave will walk away with the gong on the night. Ralph Fiennes’ performance is extraordinary, as is the directing – slick and stylish, the stuff voters love. And though fans of Wallace and Gromit (myself included) might raise a little whimper at the thought of their favourite film being passed over – nobody does it like Aardman, after all – the BAFTAs traditionally haven’t been kind to animated films.
Best animated film
Will win: Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Should win: Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Fortunately, there’s a category dedicated solely to animated films, which Aardman seems guaranteed to walk away with. This studio has won Oscars for its work on Wallace and Gromit before, and the BAFTAs will surely want to award a studio that has been so successful not just at home, but worldwide. Pity the other contenders on the night.
Best original screenplay
Will win: Coralie Fargeat for The Substance
Should win: Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold for The Brutalist
Best original screenplay feels like the kind of category that is made for awarding big swings – and Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance is certainly a big swing. Her story of ageing in Hollywood also comes with a certain kind of seedy glamour that might make it an attractive proposition to the panel – but The Brutalist, while more worthy and intellectual, is undoubtedly a stunning piece of work.
Best leading actor
Will win: Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown
Should win: Ralph Fiennes for Conclave
This is a tricky one, but it’s hard to deny that Chalamet has played a complete press blinder in previous months: turning up to the UK premiere of his film on a Lime bike, modelling fashion look after fashion look, and delivering a very solid performance as Bob Dylan to boot. Add in the fact that biopics are very often awards bait, and chances are looking good for him.
That said, Ralph Fiennes is the resident Brit here, and he’s only ever won one BAFTA before: a supporting award for his work in Schindler’s List. This would be the perfect time to reward him – and it’s hard to deny how watchable he is as the tortured Cardinal Lawrence in Conclave.
Best leading actress
Will win: Demi Moore for The Substance
Should win: Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths
This is Demi Moore’s award year. In her memorable win at the Golden Globes, she professed that the gong was her first ever major award and so instantly captured the hearts of readers worldwide. The personal element to her story will likely give her the edge over fellow competitors such as Cynthia Erivo, who’s been nominated for her work in Wicked – or Marianne Jean-Baptiste, whose work in Hard Truths is nothing short of incendiary.
Best supporting actor
Will win: Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain
Should win: Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown
Culkin is the favourite here: he has been for almost a year, ever since A Real Pain came out, and has in fact already racked up a staggering 36 wins so far this season. And his performance is good, even if it is quite Roman Roy – but it’s Norton who deserves to walk away with the award here, if only because of the magic he manages to create with the honestly slightly underwritten character of Pete Seger.
Best supporting actress
Will win: Zoe Saldaña for Emilia Pérez
Should win: Isabella Rossellini for Conclave
Despite the conflagration burning brightly in the Emilia Pérez camp, one lone nominee does seem certain of an assured victory: Zoe Saldaña, who has already picked up a Golden Globe for her work. The Pérez/ Netflix PR team have certainly thrown all their efforts into making sure she wins big at the BAFTAs and Oscars too – which she likely will, at the expense of the wonderful Rossellini. Despite only showing up briefly in Conclave, she does an awful lot with the role, imbuing her Mother Superior with flashes of humanity that shine through her reticent exterior. Alas, she is unlikely to be rewarded for it.
Rising Star award
Will win: Marisa Abela
Should win: Mikey Madison
Is there anything more British than awarding Marisa Abela the gong for her work on Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black? Despite garnering rather mixed reviews, the feedback on Abela was almost universally positive – and her performance is for the most part a remarkable feat of method acting. But it’s also the safe choice. In terms of sheer star power, Madison ought to get the award. Her breakthrough role in Anora, in which she plays the titular stripper who gets married to a Russian nepo-baby, is by turns tragic, playful and always watchable. She’s going places.
The BAFTA Film Awards takes place on Sunday
