In an election seen as a referendum on his “war on drugs”, Ecuador’s rightwing president, Daniel Noboa, won Sunday’s presidential runoff, defeating the leftist candidate Luisa González.
With 97% of ballots counted, the incumbent had secured 55.65% of the vote, compared with 44.35% for the former congresswoman.
The National Electoral Council (CNE) stated that the margin “marks an irreversible trend”, in effect recognising Noboa’s victory.
In a speech shortly after the announcement, Noboa, called it a “historic victory”.
“A victory by more than 10 points, a victory by over a million votes, leaving no doubt about who the winner is,” he told his supporters.
Donald Trump congratulated Noboa on his Truth Social platform, calling him a “great leader” and saying “he will not let you down!”
González, meanwhile, said she would not accept the results, which she called “grotesque” fraud. “We will request a recount and for the ballot boxes to be opened,” she told her supporters, while the crowd shouted “fraud”.
Citizens’ Revolution (RC), the party of the former leftist president Rafael Correa, repeated the fraud allegations in a statement on Monday, but influential party members recognised Noboa’s victory.
“If the people elected him, we must respect it. Whether we like it or not, the people voted democratically and we must be honest and recognise it,” Aquiles Álvarez, the RC mayor of Ecuador‘s largest city, Guayaquil, said on X. “The worst is to be a bad loser.”
International observers from the European Union (EU) and the Organization of American States (OAS) monitored the vote. They have not yet published their reports, but on Monday the OAS expressed its confidence in the official results.
According to the statement, the OAS observer mission “conducted a comparison of tally sheets at the observed polling stations and was able to verify consistency between the transmitted sheets, those received by the parties, and those returned in the electoral package”.
The margin of victory – more than 1.1m votes – was significantly larger than suggested by opinion polls, which had indicated a technical tie, as well as the result of the first round in February, when Noboa had beaten González by just 16,746 votes (0.17%).
Noboa’s term has been defined by an “internal armed conflict” he declared in January 2024 against drug trafficking gangs.
He placed the armed forces at the centre of his mano dura (iron fist) offensive, which initially led to a drop in crime – soon followed by a surge in reports of human rights violations and a return to previous levels of violence.
Once one of the safest countries in Latin America, Ecuador registered the highest homicide rate in the region in 2024.
The population also faced an energy crisis that led to scheduled blackouts of up to 14 hours, a shrinking GDP, and rising poverty levels – yet the incumbent emerged victorious.
The heir to a banana fortune will now serve a full term in office – until 2029 – as his current 17 months in power were to complete the term of former president Guillermo Lasso, who dissolved Congress and stepped down to avoid impeachment.
In the 2023 snap election, Noboa also defeated González in the runoff but by a much narrower margin: 51.83% to 48.17%.
Voting is compulsory in Ecuador, and, according to the National Electoral Council, 83.76% of eligible voters turned out.
One move by Noboa on the eve of the election sparked controversy.
Less than 24 hours before polls opened, the president signed a decree declaring a 60-day state of emergency – something that has been a frequent feature of his presidency – suspending the right to freedom of assembly and authorising warrantless searches.
The president claimed there was a “serious internal disturbance” in light of rising violence levels, but the decision was sharply criticised by the opposition, Indigenous movements and even Congress.
Despite once again coming close to becoming the first female president in Ecuador’s history, González’s competitiveness had more to do with her political patron Correa, who governed Ecuador from 2007 to 2017.
A split between Correístas – the former president’s supporters, such as González – and anti-Correístas has since polarised Ecuador. Correa has lived in Belgium since leaving office and was convicted by an Ecuadorian court in 2020 for corruption during his presidency.
In the speech in which she said she would not recognise the election result, González claimed that none of the opinion polls showed such a large margin and that Noboa had abused his power by not stepping down from office to run, as required by law.
“This is a dictatorship, and this is the biggest electoral fraud that we, the Ecuadorians, are witnessing,” she said.
To the Ecuadorian outlet Primicias, Noboa said it was regrettable that González would not accept defeat. “I find it regrettable that, with an 11- or 12-point difference, she’s still trying to somehow question the will of the Ecuadorian people. The Ecuadorians have already spoken, and now it’s time to get to work starting tomorrow,” he said.
