Tesla reported better-than expected fourth-quarter earnings late Wednesday, and the electric-vehicle maker expects production growth to boom in 2022 despite ongoing supply-chain issues. But a promised "product roadmap" resulted in no new EV models in 2022, including the Cybertruck. Tesla stock plunged to three-month lows Thursday.
Earlier this month, Tesla reported blockbuster Q4 deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, bringing its 2021 total to a record-breaking 936,172. Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries included 296,850 Model 3 and Y vehicles, and 11,750 Model S and X models.
The results impressed Wall Street, as Tesla appeared to manage semiconductor shortages and supply-chain issues more effectively than some rival automakers.
For now, Tesla has the enviable problem of demand outstripping supply, analysts say. Production launches in Austin, Texas, and Berlin are "key to alleviating these issues," said Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives in a recent note to clients.
Berlin, Austin Factories
The German factory will eventually produce the bulk of Tesla's vehicles destined for European customers, starting with the Model Y crossover SUV.
Tesla recently got the OK to produce the first 2,000 units at its Berlin factory, while it awaits a final permit for the plant.
Meanwhile, it appears Model Y deliveries from Texas could begin by the end of the first quarter, according to industry website Electrek, citing unnamed sources. The start of Model Y production at Tesla's Austin factory is also key because of its use of a new structural battery pack and 4680 battery cells.
Tesla's production ramp-up at both the Berlin and Austin plants will likely be slow at first. But Ives believes the Berlin plant will "alleviate the bottlenecks of production for Tesla globally." He adds that Tesla will have by the end of 2022 the overall capacity for "about 2 million units annually from roughly 1 million today."
Tesla Earnings
Estimates: FactSet analysts expected Tesla earnings per share to nearly triple to $2.36 in Q4 vs. a year ago. Sales were seen jumping 59.5% to $17.132 billion.
Results: Tesla reported Q4 EPS of $2.54 on sales of $17.719 billion, of which $314 million were from regulatory credits.
The company said in a statement that in Q4, "factories have been running below capacity for several quarters as supply chain became the main limiting factor, which is likely to continue through 2022."
Tesla also said it's still awaiting final approval for its Berlin plant. Additionally, it said it's making "progress on the industrialization of Cybertruck, which is currently planned for Austin production subsequent to Model Y."
Tesla Product Roadmap
Late last year, Musk promised a "product roadmap" in the Q4 earnings call. But on the call, he said there will be no new EVs introduced in 2022.
Musk would only say the Cybertruck will "hopefully" begin production next year. Meanwhile, he said Tesla is currently not working a $25,000 car. "We have too much on our plate right now."
EV rivals are not sitting still, especially on electric trucks.
That's well behind EV startup Rivian's late-2021 launch of its all-electric pickup, the R1T, and soon-to-launch electric trucks from General Motors and Ford.
Ford's F-150 Lightning is expected this spring. The first GM electric Silverado, aimed at a limited number of fleet operators, is expected to hit the road in Q2 2023. A consumer version will be available in the fall of 2023. GM delivered a single high-end Hummer EV before year end.
He added that the availability of 4680 batteries is not delaying production of the Cybertruck. Rather, he says, the issue is making the Cybertruck affordable "despite having awesome technology."
Those batteries, which still appear to have technical challenges, are critical to begin production of the much-delayed Cybertruck. Recent reports suggest that the Cybertruck production would be pushed back, from late 2022 to early 2023.
Meanwhile, Musk confirmed that the 4680 battery cells and structural battery pack system would be used in Model Ys built at Tesla's Austin plant. A shareholder deck shared with investors shows that Model Ys built in Berlin won't initially include 4680 batteries.
Musk also touted robotaxis and said he believes Full Self Driving will be achieved this year. He also said a lot of effort will go into developing the Tesla Bot.
Tesla Stock
Shares plunged nearly 12% to 829.10 on the stock market today, undercutting Monday's low and nearing the 200-day line. TSLA stock hit a record 1,243.49 on Nov. 4.
Tesla's relative strength line has fallen to a three-month low. Its RS Rating is 90 out of a best-possible 99. Its EPS Rating is 72.
Among other U.S.-based carmakers with a growing EV slate, GM fell 1.8% on Thursday, Ford was down 1.3% and Rivian plunged 10.5% to a new low. Lucid tumbled 14%.
Among Tesla's China-based rivals, Nio dropped 6.8% on Thursday, Xpeng dived nearly 13% and Li Auto slumped 6.5%. Warren Buffett-backed BYD fell 1.4%.
Follow Adelia Cellini Linecker on Twitter @IBD_Adelia.
