The fourth quarter is ending and Tesla is attempting to shatter its previous delivery record. Analysts see the EV giant setting a new quarterly record for vehicle deliveries, but it remains to be seen whether that will be enough to propel the company to yearly unit delivery growth.
Tesla will report fourth-quarter and full-year deliveries and production figures, likely before the open on Thursday, Jan. 2. Analyst consensus has Tesla reporting record Q4 deliveries slightly above 500,000.
A note last week from Barclays estimated Tesla's total Q4 deliveries at 515,000 units, the magic number which would represent year-over-year delivery growth compared to 1.8 million in 2023. The analysts wrote this will "keep stock's narrative momentum strong."
However, the firm believes investor focus on Tesla stock's fundamentals is generally limited and that a light near-term volume miss "would likely do little to dampen" TSLA's rally, fueled by President-elect Donald Trump, autonomous vehicle and artificial intelligence.
Meanwhile, Barclays also wrote that Tesla's Q4 result is likely "immaterial to the majority of the current Tesla bull case."
TSLA shares declined 3.3% to 417.41 during market action on Monday after sinking nearly 5% on Friday. The stock gained 2.5% last week and is up about 21% in December.
Barclays analysts on Dec. 18 wrote the postelection rally in TSLA shares reflects a "sharp disconnect" between the stock and the company's fundamentals. The firm wrote that technicals and options are playing an outsized role in the rally and that Tesla shares are now best compared to cryptocurrencies.
Tesla Q4 Deliveries
The EV giant has said it expects "slight" vehicle deliveries growth this year, but with the end of the fourth quarter fast approaching, Tesla finds itself looking for answers with unit sales lagging in the U.S. and Europe.
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The company saw vehicle deliveries rise 38% to 1.8 million in 2023 and while Tesla has said that sort of increase this year is out of reach, it is predicting growth in its automobile segment.
"Despite ongoing macroeconomic conditions, we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024," Tesla said in its third-quarter earnings release.
Looking further out, Chief Executive Elon Musk proclaimed on the Q3 earnings call that vehicle sales could grow "20%-30%" in 2025.
With Tesla predicting slight vehicle delivery growth in 2024 vs. 2023's 1.81 million, the EV giant needs 514,925 deliveries in Q4, far more than the Q4 2023 record of 484,507. Analyst consensus currently forecasts 498,000 vehicle deliveries in Q4 and 1.79 million for 2024, according to FactSet.
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However, other consensus estimates have Tesla's Q4 total coming in around 506,000 units.
Investors will get a final data point from China on Tuesday with vehicle registration numbers before Tesla is expected to report official delivery numbers on Thursday. Tesla China has been a bright spot for the EV giant in Q4 while the company has experienced generally weaker demand in the U.S. and Europe.
Tesla Stock Performance
TSLA stock rose 2.5% to 431.66 last week. Shares jumped initially during the week, hitting 465.33 intraday Thursday, before slashing gains. TSLA stock has been consolidating since peaking at 488.54, but doesn't show a buying opportunity right now.
However, TSLA is on a 66% tear since Trump's election win, as investors speculate that self-driving is coming soon, with the Trump administration easing the regulatory path for autonomous vehicles.
Shares are still in a huge uptrend and due for some consolidation. Tesla stock on Dec. 11 cleared the company's longtime all-time high of 414.50, which it hit on Nov. 4, 2021. The stock had previously last touched 400 in January 2022, according to MarketSurge charts.
Tesla stock has surged in recent weeks in part on hopes that self-driving is finally on the way. Tesla topped the $1 trillion mark on Nov. 8 for the first time in two years. On Nov. 6, Tesla stock gapped up above an alternate handle buy point of 273.54 but was quickly extended.
Tesla stock popped 3.2% to 369.49 on Dec. 5, clearing a recent range, which could have offered an add-on entry for existing TSLA holders.
TSLA stock is now on the IBD Leaderboard watchlist.
Tesla stock ranks first in the 35-member IBD Auto Manufacturers industry group. The stock has a 93 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. Shares also have a 97 Relative Strength Rating and a 78 EPS Rating.
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