Indian restaurants could be forced to charge £30 a curry due to the cost of living crisis - threatening the closure of hundreds of businesses, industry leaders have warned.
Shale Ahmed, 41, is a community leader representing restaurant owners in Birmingham - the birthplace of the balti and home of the famous Balti Triangle.
Speaking at a conference at Aston University this week, he gave a stark warning that diners face an 'eye-watering' impact on prices at curry houses struggling to survive.
He said sky-rocketing energy prices and the rising cost of ingredients has left the industry in a 'dark place' and at worst could signal the death of the Birmingham balti.
Mr Ahmed, who runs Aspire & Succeed, a community and youth organisation in the city, said many curry houses will have to close without immediate government help.
He estimates that around seven in 10 restaurants could be forced to shut their doors for good after seeing weekly shopping bills leap by 40 per cent.
Mr Ahmed, of Lozells, Birmingham, said energy bills had also rocketed from around £8,500 to almost £25,000 leaving businesses on the brink.
He said: "The industry has faced and overcome many obstacles before but this could be the starkest one yet.
"It is in a very dark place and if we're not careful it could fall off a cliff and leave thousands in the sector unemployed.
"The pandemic presented it's own problems but the cost of living crisis has just spiralled things out of control.
"If we do not get immediate help from the government then we could face the loss of a iconic Birmingham institution - and the same further afield nationally."
He continued: "We have spoken to business owners who have seen their shopping bills go up around 40 per cent.
"The cost of oil has gone from £17 for 20 litres to £44. And restaurants go through about 100 litres a week. Even the price of onions has gone up a lot.
"We have seen figures saying around seven in ten pubs will close - well this number could easily be the same for curry houses.
"If you charge customers accordingly, a curry would have to cost between £25 to £30, which is not sustainable and restaurants don't want to do that.
"People will not come, even now loyal customers are now only visiting one a month or a quarter rather than every week as purse strings tighten.
"It's certainly not suitable in its current form. I don't think many businesses will last through winter let along into the next year.
"People are not going to come through the doors and we're going to have empty restaurants and takeaways which will be forced to close."
Mr Ahmed, who runs an Indian street food company called Saucy Burger, gave the warning at the Farm-to-Fork Food Resilience conference at Aston University,
He added: "Historically we've had an issue with staff and skill shortage and the pandemic didn't really help.
"But we have always adapted and changed and overcome this. Before it has been individual business owners coming forward but we must act as a collective now.
"The sector's in a spiral effect and its snowballing out of control.
"In this city, these businesses have been passed through generations of families and we're going to lose that if we're not able to do something.
"People in the trade up and down the country and are experiencing exactly the same thing and I really fear for our industry."
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