There is a probably apocryphal quote attributed to the Greek historian Plutarch, and Alexander the Great, that you’ll have heard, which goes along the lines of “When Alexander saw the breadth of his domain, he wept for there were no more worlds to conquer”.
The dubious line does not quite apply to Tadej Pogačar, yet. The world champion might have won a lot - including Liège-Bastogne-Liège, the Giro d’Italia, the Tour de France, the World Championships, and Il Lombardia last year - but there are still blank spots on his palmarès. The Vuelta a España is missing, to complete the Grand Tour trilogy, as is Paris-Roubaix, the Monument most unsuited to his characteristics. Also missing is Milan-San Remo. He has not yet conquered all of his domain, so there’s no point in him weeping for now.
Milan-San Remo is an odd race, when you think about it. It’s normally the longest WorldTour race of the year, with the neutralised zone regularly nudging it over 300km, and yet it is also far from the toughest, the most selective. The saying that it’s the easiest race to finish but the hardest to win is obviously a cliché, but it is also instructive. The last three years have seen the first 70-ish riders finish within two minutes of each other; recent editions have ended with a reduced bunch sprint, and if not, a lone escapee has timed his attack perfectly. Last year, after the fastest edition in history, Pogačar said: “I think actually that today was one of the easiest races ever”. It is telling that no rider since Óscar Freire in 2010 has repeated a victory, and only 14 riders in 115 editions have won more than once.
Pogačar has raced San Remo four times. In 2020, his breakout year, he finished 12th in the group two seconds behind the two leaders, Julian Alaphilippe and Wout van Aert; in 2022 he finished fifth, behind solo winner Matej Mohorič, outsprinted by more powerful riders. The Slovenian fared one place better in 2023, unable to do anything once Mathieu van der Poel had gone up the road on the descent of the Poggio; last year, he finished on the podium during his annus mirabilis, but was unable to sprint past Michael Matthews and the winner, Jasper Philipsen.
So far, so close. The big problem for the UAE Team Emirates-XRG rider is that the race simply isn’t selective enough. The three Capi come 50km from the finish - Capo Mele, Capo Cervo and Capo Berta tackled before the Cipressa with about 30km to go (5.6km at 4.1%) and then the Poggio with just over 10km left (3.7km at 3.7%). It seems unlikely that he can repeat the kind of thing that has seen him win Strade Bianche in the last couple of seasons - attacking from an already reduced bunch, however far out it is. There are too many interests, too many evenly-matched teams, too unchallenging a course for him to use his customary power. It doesn’t help, either, that the 26-year-old is the most-watched person in the peloton, with every move shadowed. He might as well be wearing high vis. The perfect situation for Pogačar would be to counter-attack someone else’s move, but that requires more than a bit of fortune, of being in the right place at the right time.
The performance of Mads Pedersen at Paris-Nice and Filippo Ganna at Tirreno-Adriatico are also noteworthy, and a possible concern for the Slovenian and his UAE team. The pair managed to hold on with the pure climbers through much of those races, with Pedersen finishing 10th on the Queen stage in France, while Ganna finished second overall in Italy. Both have more of a finishing kick than Pogačar, and both seem likely to be there at the end in San Remo.
UAE Team Emirates-XRG need to make the race as hard as possible, from as far out as possible, to thin the pack enough to give Pogačar a chance. Will the seven men - Vegard Stake Laengen, Brandon McNulty, Jhonatan Narváez, Domen Novak, Nils Politt and Tim Wellens - be able to do that? It might not be enough. They tried last year, and Philipsen was still there at the end.
One thing that might work in Pogačar’s favour, give him the fortune he needs, is the weather in Liguria on Saturday. At the moment, things look decidedly wet, and anything to make the day any harder will help his case to finish first - although perhaps it’s not a day for white shorts.
Pogačar has the ability to win San Remo, that is clear, but whether things will fall in his favour is another question, and the crucial one too. There might be a few seasons of getting it right before he can survey all the worlds he has conquered, and I’m glad - it’s what makes cycling interesting.
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If you want to get in touch with Adam, email adam.becket@futurenet.com, or comment below.
