With the bookmakers, Tadej Pogačar is already one of the top-three favourites for Paris-Roubaix, up there with Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert. With one, he is even second, behind just two-time winner Van der Poel. Tadej Pogačar has never ridden Paris-Roubaix.
Yes, the odds themselves are not particularly useful, given the chaos of professional cycling, and the promoting of big names, but it does give a hint towards how the market feels about Pogačar riding Roubaix. He is already a favourite.
The news, confirmed on Wednesday morning, that the UAE Team Emirates-XRG ridder will tackle the Hell of the North is not surprising, considering the rumours, and the audacious sort of rider Tadej Pogačar is, but it is still mad. Last month footage of him training on the cobbles broke the internet, but we (perhaps naively) thought it was a bit of a troll, a joke.
Just over two weeks ago, the 26-year-old's team boss, Mauro Gianetti, was saying that it was not worth it - he told Cyclingnews: "Tadej wants to give Roubaix a go, but I keep telling him that he needs to wait before doing it, to not take risks, because he could really get hurt."
However, it turns out that what Tadej wants, Tadej gets. What the Slovenian wants is hardly a secret - to win everything possible, to be the greatest, to achieve sporting immortality. Paris-Roubaix is part of that dream, one of the few spots left on his palmarès, alongside the Vuelta a España and Milan-San Remo.
Therefore, Tadej will be there in Compiègne in just over two weeks time, ready to prove to the world that he can tackle the pavé. That wasn't really in doubt already, though - he was excellent on the cobbled stage five of the 2022 Tour de France, at the front, powering through the 11 sectors. His bike handling skills are supreme, and he takes well to new challenges; he finished fourth at his first Tour of Flanders, and first at his second.
It is not that simple, though. The three-time Tour de France winner is not the kind of rider who traditionally does well at Roubaix; even in the age of all riders being lighter and less acutely specialised, he is a climb-based all-rounder, hence his success at the hilly Tour of Flanders. He might be too light, with Van der Poel as much as 10kg heavier than him - the power needed might elude him.
When one thinks of the favourites, Pogačar is clearly a different kind of rider: Mathieu van der Poel, Mads Pedersen, Wout van Aert, Filippo Ganna, Jasper Philipsen, Josh Tarling, Jonathan Milan, Stefan Küng. Yet, Pogačar has beaten most of these riders in time-trials, sometimes flat ones, too. He has the power, but it remains to be seen if that is enough.
There is also the risk that comes with Roubaix, and tackling it for a first time. Sure, a crash might come anywhere, as we saw at Strade Bianche for the Slovenian and at Paris-Nice for Jonas Vingegaard, but the opportunities for incident seem greater on the cobbles for the first time. That's why his team was trying to dissuade him. The Tour de France remains the big goal, and a fourth could cement his legacy, allow him to focus on other things - like Roubaix - in the future. Sean Kelly wrote last month that it would be a "crazy idea at this point in his career".
Pogačar clearly does not think like that, though. He is a mould-breaker, a rider who says yes and attacks, and goes full throttle into the Hell of the North, as crazy as it all seems. He is in good form, the opportunity is there, and history beckons.
In order to complete his trophy cabinet, he will have to ride Paris-Roubaix at some point. In all likelihood, he will have to ride it more than once, given the sum of his experience in the race at present amounts to nothing. Therefore, it might seem illogical to race it now, but Pogačar has to try at some point, right? The future is now.
It seems silly to say, but of course Pogačar could win Paris-Roubaix. That doesn't mean he will, but it is worth saying that he could. This is the man who won Liège-Bastogne-Liège, six stages and the overall at the Giro d’Italia, six stages and the overall at the Tour de France, the World Championships, and Il Lombardia last year. Paris-Roubaix is different to all of those challenges, but if any non-traditional rider could find a way, it would be him.
