Leeds United are still forecast to finish outside of the bottom three at the end of the season, despite suffering back-to-back thrashings against Crystal Palace and Liverpool respectively.
The Whites have leaked 11 goals across their past two matches, and have conceded more goals than any other Premier League (60) this season.
Nevertheless, FiveThirtyEight have tipped Javi Gracia's side to avoid the drop by three points, and finish the campaign in 16th place.
READ MORE: Javi Gracia warned Leeds United sacking is 'not impossible' after consecutive thrashings
FiveThirtyEight have Southampton, Nottingham Forest and Everton down for relegation, while Leicester City are predicted to escape tumbling into the Championship next season.
Southampton are the favourites to go down with a probability of 91%, and Forest are also heavily expected to follow suit at 81%.
Everton have been handed a 57% chance of relegation, with Leicester City and Leeds being given a 38% and 24% chance respectively of finishing among the bottom three.
FiveThirtyEight full relegation predictions:
12th: Crystal Palace - 47 points (-1%)
13th: Wolves - 41 points (2%)
14th: Bournemouth - 41 points (3%)
15th: West Ham - 40 points (4%)
16th: Leeds United - 36 points (24%)
17th: Leicester City - 35 points (38%)
18th: Everton - 33 points (57%)
19th: Nottingham Forest - 32 points (81%)
20th: Southampton - 30 points (91%)
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