With Manchester United's victory over Sheriff Tiraspol, they have now qualified out of their group alongside Real Sociedad. However, who they will be playing is still yet to be decided.
If United fail to beat Sociedad by two goals then they will enter into the playoff round where they will play against teams like Barcelona and Sevilla. Erik ten Hag's former club Ajax are also expected to drop in alongside one of Bayer Leverkusen or Atletico Madrid.
With that in mind and with United's opponents still not confirmed, the supercomputer at FiveThirtyEight has given Ten Hag's side a 66% chance of making it to the Round of 16. They then have a 46% chance of making the quarter-finals.
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In terms of reaching the final, United have a 15% chance, and winning the whole thing the computer states is only an 8% chance. However, this could all be thrown into flux if United were to overturn Sociedad in Spain.
In terms of the teams that have a higher chance of winning it all than United, Ten Hag's former Ajax are currently the third most likely to win the competition with a 10% chance. However, Alfred Schreuder's side have not faired well in Europe so far this season and Ten Hag will be hoping to return to cause an upset.
Fellow Premier League Arsenal are currently the second favourite with their chances sitting at 14% and having dropped down into the competition unexpectedly, Barcelona are now the favourite to win it all at 23%.
Given that the path to the final for teams are not clear and we still don't know who will play who past the group stages, there is still a high level of uncertainty to this prediction. But given that the supercomputer doesn't rate United's chances of finishing in the Top Four places this season that highly, Ten Hag may need to win the Europa League to guarantee Champions League football next season.
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