Saturday’s trip to Blackpool marks the start of the final run-in for Nottingham Forest, with their play-off fate to be decided over the next 10 games.
Steve Cooper’s side return from the international break looking to clinch a top-six place and keep their promotion hopes alive. They are currently in ninth spot, three points below Blackburn Rovers in sixth, with at least one game in hand on most of their rivals.
The Championship table is so incredibly tight, though, it promises to be an enthralling few weeks. Predicting how the final standings will look is tough.
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According to the data experts at FiveThirtyEight, however, the Reds have a 55 percent chance of making the play-offs. And they have an 18 percent chance of making the step up to the Premier League.
FiveThirtyEight have forecast the final table, including end-of-season probabilities for relegation, making the play-offs, being promoted and winning the Championship. Their predictions are based on their Soccer Power Index, which, they say, are “our best estimate of a team’s overall strength”.
They add: “In our system, every team has an offensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to score against an average team on a neutral field, and a defensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to concede. These ratings, in turn, produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of available points — a win is worth 3 points, a tie worth 1 point, and a loss worth 0 points — the team would be expected to take if that match were played over and over again.”
Forest’s arch-rivals Derby County are set for relegation, based on the supercomputer's prediction. They have a 96 percent chance of going down.
Here’s how the final table looks, based on their data. A team’s current points tally is included in brackets.
Predicted final Championship table
1 Fulham (77 points) - 93 points
2 Bournemouth (69pts) - 85pts
3 Luton Town (63pts) - 76pts
4 Sheffield United (61pts) - 74pts
5 Middlesbrough (59pts) - 73pts
6 Nottingham Forest (58pts) - 73pts
7 Huddersfield Town (63pts) - 72pts
8 Blackburn Rovers (61pts) - 71pts
9 Millwall (57pts) - 69pts
10 QPR (59pts) - 68pts
11 West Bromwich Albion (54pts) - 66pts
12 Coventry City (55pts) - 66pts
13 Blackpool (52pts) - 64pts
14 Preston North End (51pts) - 62pts
15 Stoke City (49pts) - 60pts
16 Swansea City (48pts) - 59pts
17 Cardiff City (46pts) - 57pts
18 Bristol City (44pts) - 52pts
19 Birmingham City (42pts) - 51pts
20 Hull City (41pts) - 49pts
21 Reading (33pts) - 41pts
22 Barnsley (28pts) - 37pts
23 Derby County (25pts) - 33pts
24 Peterborough United (26pts) - 33pts
