Periodically here at For The Win, we’ll be keeping tabs on the NFL’s top Super Bowl 58 contenders. This index is our way of gauging the current temperature of the league while trying to get a sense of what might await us in the playoff crucible of this coming January and February. This is an unscientific rationale rooted in recent developments from one football writer’s crystal ball.
Folks, give yourselves a pat on the back. We’ve made it roughly one-third of the way through the 2023 NFL season. Where do we even begin with the storylines? Tua Tagovailoa looks worthy of an MVP in Miami. Again. In Michigan, the Detroit Lions are no longer a hot upstart — they have definitely arrived. Meanwhile, a bunch of prospective teams should really consider being active at the upcoming Halloween NFL trade deadline.
But I’m here to unpack something more important.
Who looks prepared to have their team colors paraded around in confetti this February in Las Vegas? I’m talking, of course, about the NFL’s truly elite Super Bowl contenders as we head into Week 7.
My rationale for the latest Super Bowl contender update is, as always, divulged from (mostly) scientific numbers. From quarterback play and offensive and defensive efficiency to ongoing resumes and teams that look like they still have plenty of room to grow, I consider everything. A familiar team (cough, cough) might top this list as we charge headlong toward the end of October, but you’ll be surprised to learn their case isn’t necessarily as ironclad as it seems.
Let’s dive into this week’s Super Bowl contender index and continue pondering who should reserve a hotel in Sin City in a few months.
5
Baltimore Ravens (4-2)
Week 3 rank: 5 (second appearance)
The Ravens don’t care about style points. Sure, it’d be better if they cruised to at least one “easy” win, but most aspects of this squad remain sound and solid. Sound and solid enough to make a run to February.
Despite numbers that wouldn’t say as much (and receivers that sometimes don’t foot their end of the bill), Lamar Jackson is arguably playing the most efficient football of his bright career. His 96.4 passer rating, as well as his Expected Points Added (EPA) and Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) composite of .092 (via RBDSM.com), are all comfortably his best marks in the last three seasons. Jackson remains an elusive playmaker with his legs who hunts big game downfield. Now that’s he learning to play more like a point guard, it makes the Ravens far more dangerous. Frankly, Jackson hasn’t looked this good since winning his unanimous MVP in 2019.
What really sets the Ravens apart is their defense. Coordinator Mike Macdonald’s scheme is predicated on letting linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen attack downhill every play. It’s paid off with the league’s second-best DVOA in defensive efficiency, the third-best passing defense, the fourth-ranked scoring defense, and the 11th-ranked rushing defense. Baltimore’s defensive unit is a balanced, well-rounded machine. I could make the argument that Smith, Queen, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, and Jadeveon Clowney all deserve Pro Bowl nods (or better).
The results bear out for their dominant, cohesive unit.
Patrick Queen tosses the blocker to make this third-down stop and force a punt in a one-score game.
Also, look how far Roquan Smith goes to help clean this up. pic.twitter.com/6CqwKrNycv
— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) October 17, 2023
Someone will eventually have to step up for the Ravens as a pass target. Having Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews is all well and good, but no one else on this team seems capable of consistently making a play. Asking Jackson to play hero ball long-term isn’t a sustainable set-up to win a championship. Odell Beckham Jr. or Rashod Bateman — your tables are ready.
4
Miami Dolphins (5-1)
Week 3 rank: 3 (second appearance)
As the league at large suffers from a malaise of low scoring (and, yes, competent defense takes over), the Dolphins stick out like a sore thumb. They score in bunches. They create big plays seemingly at will. With a supporting cast featuring Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane (when healthy), they are more or less faster, quicker, and better in space than almost everyone else in the NFL. This team can reasonably drop 30 points on any defense without breaking a sweat.
Only the Detroit Lions (29) have generated more 20-plus-yard pass plays than the Dolphins. No one has more 40-plus-yard pass plays than Miami’s seven. Per STATS, Miami successfully generates a first down at an astonishing 47 percent of the time. That means in any instance the Dolphins complete a pass, half the time, it will be enough for at least 10 yards and/or to generate a first down. Only the San Francisco 49ers even come remotely close to that figure at 43.3 percent. What’s even more devastating for opposing defenses is that Miami averages 6.5 yards a carry in the running game. That is more than every other NFL team’s offense averages per play.
Put another way: We are discussing a potentially historic offense in South Beach.
Mike McDaniel deserves the most credit for these fireworks. His revolutionary motion offense lets some of the league’s finest speedsters consistently get open without having to win one-on-one on their own. A solid majority of the time, the Dolphins legitimately only run two-man routes with Hill and Waddle, and defenses still have no answer for something they know is coming. None of this is to diminish Tagovailoa — who looks poised to capture his first career MVP after fading down the stretch in 2022. Tagovailoa might not play the popular backyard style we’ve become accustomed to over the last half-decade. But he plays distributor and anticipates throws almost better than anyone.
I do worry about what happens when the Dolphins have to play respectful defense. Vested veteran mind Vic Fangio’s scheme is a mess, with a unit that just surrendered 21 points to the anemic Carolina Panthers. The Dolphins aren’t without talent, either — defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, EDGE Jaelan Phillips, and safety Jevon Hollard form a perfectly cromulent core. They just make a lot of self-inflicting mistakes. Miami is just 27th in defensive DVOA efficiency and possesses the league’s 25th-ranked scoring defense. This isn’t an issue when the offense is as good as it is, and the Dolphins can play bottom-feeders like Carolina. But what happens when they play contenders with similar firepower? Will scoring 30 points be enough? The Super Bowl team with the worst defense to win a championship in the last decade was the 2018 New England Patriots, who ranked 19th in DVOA. But that squad was still coached by Bill Belichick — the greatest defensive mind in the sport’s history.
The hope is that perennial Pro Bowler Jalen Ramsey’s return from injury in December will help sand over some of Miami’s issues. In practice, he’ll likely be more of a shoddy Band-Aid on a discombobulated 11-man group. Whether the Dolphins can overcome their poor defense is an answer we probably won’t have until January.
3
San Francisco 49ers (5-1)
Week 3 rank: 2 (second appearance)
Don’t let the 49ers’ bizarre loss in Cleveland fool you. That was the equivalent of a heavyweight boxer getting knocked to the mat and getting back up in two seconds. There is (mostly) nothing to be overtly concerned about with a team that still has various All-Pros on both sides of the ball and the NFL’s top coach in Kyle Shanahan.
So, rather than dive into the overall advanced stats like with other representative teams, I want to use this space to have a nuanced conversation about a pertinent topic in 49ers Land. That’s right, folks.
Let’s talk about Brock Purdy.
Ever since he began starting games for San Francisco late last season, Purdy has been a polarizing lightning rod of charisma. There are two primary camps for evaluating his presence with the 49ers. Some believe he can elevate the 49ers and that he runs Shanahan’s offense to a tee. (Tom Brady and Joe Montana’s names have rather egregiously been thrown out as comparisons, too.) In this case, Purdy resembles more than a game manager simply asked to take what the defense gives him.
To others, Purdy is a literal sum of the parts around him. While it is not easy to run Shanahan’s offense at an elite level, many folks believe that a supporting cast of Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and top-tier coaching prop up Purdy more than he does them. In this case, we saw it in practice when Samuel and McCaffrey left with injuries in Cleveland, and Purdy enjoyed the objectively worst performance of his career. Former For The Win writer Steven Ruiz (now with The Ringer) has been a vocal critic and non-believer of Purdy, notably drawing the ire of the San Francisco press that can’t believe someone isn’t unabashedly giving the former Mr. Irrelevant his flowers without a healthy skepticism or any critical thinking.
The truth about Purdy probably lies somewhere in the middle. Not every quarterback could run the Shanahan offense like this. If that were the case, the 49ers wouldn’t have dumped Trey Lance — someone they traded three first-round picks for. It’s not that seamless of a scheme, and there is a baseline of aptitude needed to play well. The 49ers wouldn’t have placed their bets on Purdy being the guy to finally take this team over the top after coming this close for the last four seasons if they didn’t believe in him. According to STATS, San Francisco doesn’t really generate all that many yards after the catch. The 49ers are 17th in the league in yards after the catch. And Purdy’s average intended air yards per pass of 7.9 is 14th in the NFL. That suggests he makes plays for his receivers, throwing them open more often than it appears.
Anticipatory throws like this to Aiyuk tell a similar story:
Brandon Aiyuk going full crazy legs when breaking on his route pic.twitter.com/NSpHaMCpTQ
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 9, 2023
On the flip side, since sacks are quickly being recognized as more of a quarterback stat, Purdy’s sack percentage of 6.3 is a paltry 17th in the league. Meanwhile, Purdy averages a robust 8.6 yards per pass attempt — second best in the NFL — but that is just a classic example of being a 49ers quarterback under Shanahan. Noted Difference Maker Jimmy Garappolo averaged 8.3 yards per attempt during his San Francisco career. The same can be said for Nick Mullens (7.9) and even C.J. Beathard (7.0), with Lance being the lone real outlier for extraneous reasons.
This doesn’t diminish Purdy’s ongoing achievements, but it’s hard to argue with that track record. San Francisco has the ultimate plug-and-play quarterback offense in the league, and no one should be afraid to say Purdy is a beneficiary.
From my vantage point, given a parity-laden landscape, Purdy is good enough to win the 49ers their first Super Bowl in almost 30 years. But that doesn’t mean he’s a top-flight quarterback. You’d be hard-pressed to tell me a better quarterback wouldn’t have San Francisco — a run-first team for good reason — humming at an even greater blistering pace. It’s more that the 49ers as a team provide the perfect vehicle for someone like him to make enough plays to win. We can all admit that as much. I know this won’t be the end of the Purdy conversation, but it probably won’t matter when San Francisco is 13-4 and earns a top-2 seed again.
2
Detroit Lions (5-1)
Week 3 rank: N/A (first appearance)
Hoo buddy, we are going there. I’ve already written at length about why I think the Lions are Super Bowl 58-worthy, but it bears repeating: Dan Campbell’s boys in Honolulu Blue are more than capable of winning Detroit’s Lombardi Trophy in franchise history this February.
The resume speaks for itself:
- Fourth in offensive DVOA and third in defensive DVOA
- Fourth in scoring offense (28 points a game) and ninth in scoring defense (18.8 points a game)
- Ninth in third-down offense (42.1 percent) and fourth in third-down defense (33.3 percent)
- Four victories by at least 14 points
- With stout offensive and defensive lines, a loaded cadre of skill players led by names like David Montgomery, Sam LaPorta, and Jameson Williams, Jared Goff — a top-half quarterback — is their arguably biggest “weakness.”
- They certainly do all the little things, too.
- The only team to beat the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs since December 2022 and the last team to beat them in Kansas City since October 2022
What I didn’t touch upon in my column is a weak Detroit schedule. I mean that in a complimentary fashion. Between the rival Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Minnesota Vikings, the three other NFC North teams have a combined five wins through six weeks. Outside of their upcoming matchup with the Baltimore Ravens and a late-season battle with the Dallas Cowboys, the Lions have no other (current) winning teams remaining on their plate.
This complete squad could very well cruise to a 12-13 win campaign just by playing its same tough, united brand of football the rest of the way. Don’t be surprised when the Lions parlay this success into being the NFC’s somehow still underrated disruptor of contenders. Before the season began, I thought we were destined for an NFC title game rematch between the 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles.
The Lions make me much less certain of that potential reality.
1
Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)
Week 3 rank: 5 (third appearance)
In times of chaos and strife, we default to Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Travis Kelce. No one has earned more benefit of the doubt, even if pervasive questions hang overhead about the NFL’s Big Red Machine.
These are not the same offensively-driven Chiefs we’ve become accustomed to. Kansas City has scored over 30 points on just one occasion in six games in a 41-10 blowout over the dysfunctional Chicago Bears — arguably the NFL’s worst team. They’ve sweated out wins over mediocre squads like the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings and essentially won by default in likely the most lopsided 19-8 score ever over the rival Denver Broncos. I wouldn’t normally hesitate to have reservations about a team with this kind of rap sheet.
Yet, despite the hoopla, Kansas City is tied for the best record in the sport at 5-1. Despite a receiving corps figuring it out on the fly — though rookie Rashee Rice appears promising — Kansas City has the sixth-ranked offense in DVOA efficiency. While they remain a Kelce-dominated attack, eight Chiefs players have caught at least 10 passes, and five have at least 20 targets. That is the unofficial definition of “spreading the wealth.” If Rice continues to take considerable strides forward as one of Mahomes’ new favorite trusted targets, we’ve probably only seen the early molds of a dynamic Chiefs offense still taking shape.
Passes to Rashee Rice carry a 110 quarterback rating. The rest of the KC wideouts:
– Marquez Valdes-Scantling, 91.0
– Justin Watson, 78.7
– Kadarius Toney, 70.7
– Justyn Ross, 67.4
– Skyy Moore, 50.8
– Richie James, 42.4Pass it to Rashee Rice.
— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) October 17, 2023
What distinguishes this Chiefs squad from the team that’s won two of the last four Super Bowls is an old-school style of play. Kansas City is 11th in the NFL in total rushing yards and has already run the ball 165 times in six games for an average of 27.5 every weekend. Both figures and paces would easily be the highest of the Reid-Mahomes-Kelce era.
Defensively, the league’s youngest unit has quietly evolved into a shutdown group capable of hemming anyone in. Kansas City is ninth in defensive DVOA efficiency and 11th in total defense. It’s held explosive offenses on paper, like the Jaguars, to nine points and kept the barnstorming Lions to their worst offensive output of the year thus far. Second-year cornerback Trent McDuffie is starting to resemble a lockdown player tailor-made for coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme, while defensive lineman Chris Jones and linebacker Nick Bolton continue to do what they do best — have complete dominion over the middle of the field and the line of scrimmage.
The results are eye-opening:
Through six weeks, the Chiefs own the No. 2 scoring defense in the NFL (14.7 PPG). Only San Francisco (14.5 PPG) ranks higher.
The Chiefs are the only team in the NFL to hold the opposition under 22 total points (and 21 offensive points) in every game.
— Matt McMullen (@KCChiefs_Matt) October 17, 2023
What should be especially scary for anyone standing in the Chiefs’ way of a repeat title is that Kansas City’s defense is comfortably the youngest in the league. Jones is the only significant piece even close to 30, and he’s still playing at a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber level. He still wrecks games like the best of them. There are a lot of youthful foundational pieces here locked in for the foreseeable future, only just now hitting their physical primes. There’s a distinct possibility we haven’t even seen the best version of this Chiefs defense.
None of this is normal. The Chiefs didn’t become the NFL’s gold standard by running the ball, playing good defense, and hoping their quarterback makes enough throws to keep the offense driving along. They have been a team that likes watching Mahomes launch 500, sometimes over 600 passes a season, while giving the defense a comfortable lead to protect. The only constant is Dave Toub’s traditionally great special teams unit.
This iteration of the Chiefs is arguably more complete on both primary sides of the ball and might be deeper and younger than either of the 2019 and 2022 teams who ascended to pro football’s highest summit. General manager Brett Veach (with Reid’s input) should take a bow for retooling the Chiefs and effectively opening a new championship window.
The cherry on top of this mix is the Chiefs’ pedigree and experience. No one has played better November-December football than these Chiefs in the last five years. Kansas City usually starts to build real momentum in the second half of the season and channels that into a fruitful January. It’s not how you start but how you finish. While they’re not winning with the same style we’ve seen in recent seasons, I see no reason the Chiefs won’t continue that evergreen fall trend. If anything, showing they can be a chameleon that wins with a balanced offense and defense is a healthier mix for Reid and Co.
For the time being, the Chiefs are in line for another Lombardi Trophy. Just as we all predicted.
