The stock market rally retreated for the week after hitting fresh record highs Monday, with the Trump trade fading. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq held up relatively well, while the Russell 2000 gave up much of its gains. Shopify was among big earnings winners, but there were also many losers, including downside reversals from Cava and others.
Stock Market Trump Trade Ebbs
The stock market rally saw solid weekly losses on the major indexes, with small caps suffering more significant losses after the huge Trump election gains in the prior week. There were plenty of big earnings winners and losers. Treasury yields rose solidly, to four-month highs amid stalled inflation data and Fed chief Jerome Powell signaling caution on future rate cuts. Bitcoin surged above $80,000 and then $90,000, topping $93,000 for a record before backing off to just below $90,000.
Economy
Investors initially shrugged off two somewhat-elevated inflation reports over the past week, but adjusted course after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sounded a touch more hawkish Thursday afternoon. The key line: "The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." Also, based on the consumer price index and producer price index, Powell said that the Fed's primary inflation gauge, the core PCE inflation rate, will likely show a slight uptick to 2.8% in October from 2.65% in September. By comparison, Fed projections in September showed core PCE inflation running at 2.6% in Q4. Meanwhile the October retail sales report was solid-to-strong, especially including large upward revisions to September.
Odds of a Dec. 18 rate cut fell to around 55%. It may take a soft November jobs report to compel the Fed to cut next month.
Shopify Spikes On Earnings
Shopify said adjusted earnings rose 16%, just beating, while net income doubled to $344 million. Revenue climbed 26% to $2.16 billion and gross merchandise volume increased 24% to $69.71 billion, also modestly beating. Shares gapped out of a base.
Cava Crushes Views, But Shares Reverse
In a challenging retail climate, Cava sailed over a high earnings bar. The falafel bowl chain, a 2023 initial public offering, beat third-quarter expectations on all key metrics, including a 150% adjusted EPS jump and sales growth accelerating to 39%. Cava stock initially soared to a fresh post-IPO high, then plunged. Analysts worried about valuation, with shares of "the next Chipotle" quadrupling in 2024. In October, Chipotle Mexican Grill invested in Brassica, an emerging Cava rival.
Disney Earnings Stream Higher
The Dow Jones entertainment giant reported a 39% EPS jump while revenue grew 6% to $22.57 billion, both slightly beating views. Disney's streaming business saw profitability improve, with operating income of $321 million vs. a year-earlier loss of $387 million. Disney+ Core subscribers increased 4% to 122.7 million, while Disney+ Hotstar in India saw a 1% increase to 35.9 million. Total Hulu subscribers rose 2% to 52 million. By segment, entertainment revenue jumped 14%, experiences revenue rose 1% and sports revenue was flat. Disney guided high-single digit adjusted EPS growth for 2025, increasing to double-digit growth in 2026 and 2027. Disney shares jumped to a six-month high.
Rocket Lab Takes Off
Rocket Lab soared after reporting a smaller-than-expected Q3 loss while revenue grew 55% to $105 million, also slightly beating. The satellite launcher and manufacturer guided Q4 revenue above views and announced a new launch service agreement for two missions with its Neutron rocket in 2026. RKLB rallied more than 200% so far this year. Lunar rover maker Intuitive Machines reported a wider-than-expected loss but revenue soared 360% to $58.5 million, beating expectations. LUNR stock, which had surged on Rocket Lab's results, reversed lower on its earnings, but still rose for the week. Elsewhere, AST SpaceMobile reported a much-wider-than-expected loss for the quarter while revenue came in light. AST also secured a launch deal for a block of 60 satellites, which will take place in 2025 and 2026. ASTS shares plunged after its results, but were still up for the week. All three stocks are up huge in 2024.
SpaceX reportedly plans a tender offer in December to sell existing shares at $135 each. That would value Elon Musk's space company around $250 billion, up from about $210 billion earlier this year.
China Internet Giants Fall
E-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com, along with messaging and gaming giant Tencent, reported stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings but fell short on revenue. Alibaba earnings fell 4% in local currency with sales up 5%, though AI showed triple-digit growth again. JD earnings jumped 29.5% in local currency but revenue climbed 5%. Tencent reported a 36% EPS gain in local currency while revenue climbed 8% to 6.34 yuan (about 88 cents) per share, ahead of views, while a sales increase of 8% to 167.2 billion yuan ($23.11 billion) missed estimates. All three stocks fell for the week, especially JD.com, in part on broad China concerns about a sluggish economy and Trump tariff fears
Warren Buffett buys Domino's Stake
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought Domino's Pizza and Pool Corp. for the first time in the third quarter, while selling big chunks of two of its largest and long-held holdings: Apple and Bank of America. Among other notable Q3 moves, Berkshire Hathaway grew its position in Heico, after opening a position in the jet engine supplier in the second quarter. But Berkshire slashed its position in Ulta Beauty after just a quarter of owning the retailer, and entirely exited Floor & Decor, a stock that went basically nowhere in the three years that Berkshire owned it. Despite hefty cuts this year, Apple remains a top Berkshire holding. Buffett still owns 300,000 shares of the iPhone maker, which he has called an "extraordinary business."
In Brief
Sea Limited swung to a 24-cent per share profit in Q3 vs. a year-earlier 26-cent loss. Sales increased 31% year over year, the Singapore-based internet services firm's best gain since early 2022. The stock, up more than 150% this year, jumped to a two-year high, though it pared weekly gains. Investors are growing more confident its Shopee e-commerce unit can fend off challengers such as Alibaba and PDD Holdings.
Applied Materials beat fiscal Q4 views with a 9% EPS gain and a 5% revenue rise to $7.05 billion, both beating. But the chip-gear giant gave mixed Q1 guidance: slightly higher on EPS and slightly lower on sales. Shares tumbled.
Cisco Systems earnings fell 8% and revenue 6% to $13.8 billion, the fourth-straight quarter of year-over-year declines but beating fiscal Q1 views. The Dow tech firm guided fractionally higher on Q2 revenue. For fiscal 2025, Cisco reiterated guidance for $1 billion of artificial-intelligence-driven product orders, mostly Ethernet networking gear. Shares reversed from the highest levels in nearly three years.
Shift4 Payments reported Q3 adjusted earnings grew 27% while revenue rose 50% to $365.1 million, both slightly missing. End-to-end payment volume from merchant customers climbed 56% to $43.5 billion, missing estimates of $46.24 billion. Shares tumbled from Monday's record high.
Loar Holdings reported a 400% EPS gain, and 25% revenue rise to $103.5 million that topped views. But the aerospace and defense components maker, which came public in April, guided lower on full-year EPS. Shares tumbled after hitting a record high Monday, but found support around key levels.
Home Depot reported a 1% EPS decline, beating views. Sales climbed 7%, the second straight quarter of year-over-year gains. The home improvement retail giant raised guidance even as it said consumers remain cautious. Shares were little changed.
Talen Energy reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings and revenue early Thursday while announcing it is "moving forward" with Amazon.com on "commercial solutions." Federal regulators recently rejected a $650 million nuclear deal with the internet giant. EPS of $3.16 followed a year-earlier loss of $1.30. Sales grew 26% to $650 million. Shares edged lower. Meanwhile, Oklo — the nuclear power startup backed by OpenAI head Sam Altman — announced a Q3 loss that was in line with views. It still expects its first Aurora powerhouse nuclear power plant to be operational by 2027.
Nu Holdings earnings jumped 81% in Q3, meeting views. Revenue grew 38% to $2.94 billion, topping forecasts, but gains continue to decelerate. Operating costs swelled. Shares of the Brazilian bank initially plunged after results, but closed the week with a slim loss.
Instacart swung to a profit in Q3 while revenue grew 12% to $852 million. But shares tumbled after the grocery delivery app gave weak profit guidance.
On Holding earnings fell 19% vs. a year earlier, missing views for flat profit. But net sales jumped 34% to $721 million, comfortably beating. Gross margin hit 60.6%, the highest since the Swiss athletic shoe maker's September 2021 IPO. Shares hit a record high, paring gains to around a buy point.
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