Stocks finished mixed Tuesday, as investors adopted a cautious stance heading into tonight's presidential debate while looking to a key inflation report later in the week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 92 points, or 0.23%, to finished the session at 40,736.96, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.45% to 5,495.52, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.84% to end the day at 17,025.88.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are scheduled to debate tonight.
Kathleen Hall Jamieson, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, told the Associated Press that debates mostly “reinforce voters’ ideas” but still are important in moving voters who have yet to decide whom to support or whether to vote at all. And that “can change the outcomes in close races.”
"We recognize that it can be difficult at times to separate your investments and politics, but investors often run into trouble when they place too much importance on the outcome of elections," said John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management.
"The fact is that election outcomes have little impact on long-term investment returns," he added. "Despite the alarming rhetoric that surrounds presidential campaigns, markets tend to do well regardless of which party is in the Oval Office."
Updated at 12:25 PM EDT
Red mist
Stocks are sliding into red heading into the afternoon session, with the S&P 500 marked 29 points, or 0.43% lower and the Nasdaq down 79 points, or 0.57%
Benchmark 2-year note yields, meanwhile, fell nearly 10 basis points to 3.683% following mixed trade data from China and a big slump in global crude prices, while 10-year notes fell 6 basis points to 3.644%.
Both Brent and WTI are currently trading below $70 a barrel as demand concerns persist. #oil #economy #markets pic.twitter.com/ilcoP9Z7Dw
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) September 10, 2024
Updated at 11:05 AM EDT
Oil slick
Global oil prices fell below the $70 mark for the first time since March of last year following a sharp decline in demand projections from the OPEC producers' cartel.
OPEC, along with non-member allies such as Russia, forecast that global demand would rise by 2.03 million barrels per day this year, down from its prior estimate of 2.11 million, thanks in part to economic weakness in China, the world's biggest energy importer.
Brent crude futures contracts for November delivery, the global pricing benchmark, were last seen $2.05 lower at $69.79 per barrel.
WTI futures for October delivery, which are tightly-linked to domestic gasoline prices, fell $2.17 to $66.54 per barrel
#OPEC September oil market report
— Giovanni Staunovo🛢 (@staunovo) September 10, 2024
oil demand growth in mbpd
2024 cut by 0.08 to 2.03
2025 cut by 0.04 to 1.74
non-OPEC+ supply growth in mbpd
2023 base raised by 0.07
2024 unchanged at 1.23
2025 unchanged at 1.10
OPEC+ crude production rose by 304kbpd m/m to 40.655mbpd in…
Updated at 9:36 AM EDT
Mixed start
The S&P 500 was marked 23 points, or 0.43% higher in the opening minutes of trading, with the Nasdaq rising 107 points, or 0.63%.
The Dow, pulled down by a 1% decline in Apple, was marked 85 points lower while the Russell 2000 was little-changed from last night's close at 2,098.12 points.
S&P 500 Opening Bell Heatmap (Sept. 10, 2024)$SPY +0.38%🟩$QQQ +0.65%🟩$DJI -0.19%🟥$IWM -0.22%🟥 pic.twitter.com/GcM2s3SkLr
— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) September 10, 2024
Updated at 8:29 AM EDT
Debate prep
Stocks turned higher in premarket trading, with the S&P 500 now called 13 points higher and the Nasdaq priced for a 50 point bump, heading into what could be a muted session on Wall Street head of tonight's presidential debate.
"Because there is no obvious frontrunner in the polls, Tuesday's debate will be important in terms of lending clues to who the eventual winner may be, which of course has market and policy implications," said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group in Newport Beach, California.
"Investors will be looking for specific policy elaborations thus far mostly lacking from both candidates, on everything from tax policy, tariffs and deficit spending," he added. "We are unlikely to hear any meaningful specifics in Tuesday's debate beyond mere platitudes."
The Presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is set to take place tonight. @PeterAlexander reports on all the details, including the rules. pic.twitter.com/FAUZz7bEzZ
— TODAY (@TODAYshow) September 10, 2024
Stock Market Today
Stocks finished firmly higher on Monday, with the S&P 500 rising 1.16% by the close of trading, matching gains for the tech-focused Nasdaq, as investors looked to claw back losses from last week's slump, the worst in more than a year.
Bereft of major economic data releases, and nearing the end of the second quarter earnings season, markets are largely moving on sentiment this week as investors wait for Wednesday's August inflation report while eying the Federal Reserve's September 18 policy decision.
However, even with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting tool being upgraded to a current quarter growth rate of 2.5% on Monday, markets continue to fret over perceived recession risks and a Fed policy error.
Related: Bond market sends startling signal for stocks
Global oil prices partly reflect those growth concerns, and continued their weeks-long selloff in overnight trading with Brent crude futures, the global benchmark, falling another 93 cents to $70.91 per barrel, the lowest since late last year.
Uncertainty tied to the U.S. presidential race is also a factor in the market's recent slump, as polls continue to show an effective dead-heat between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
The pair will face off this evening in their first, and likely only, televised debate on Disney-owned DIS ABC later this evening.
Heading into the start of the trading day on Wall Street, futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 suggest a 4 point opening bell decline while those linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average are priced for a 10 point pullback. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, is called 53 points lower.
Related: Analyst revisits Apple stock price target after iPhone 16 launch
Stocks on the move include Apple (AAPL) , which fell 1.2% in premarket trading to $218.30 each following its iPhone 16 launch event yesterday, which unveiled a series of new AI features that will roll out over the coming months.
The tech giant also lost its years-long battle to avoid a $14.4 billion tax payment to the Republic of Ireland.
Oracle (ORCL) shares were also active, surging 8.8% to $152.20 each after the cloud-focused software group topped Street forecasts for its fiscal first quarter earnings.
More Wall Street Analysts:
- Analyst says Intel should drop a key business to survive
- Analysts adjust Bookings.com stock price target on travel market
- Analysts place bets on Las Vegas strip casino stocks
In overseas markets, European stocks were little-changed in early trading, with the Stoxx 600 benchmark rising 0.06%, with Britain's FTSE 100 falling 0.42% thanks in part to the ongoing weakness in oil and commodities markets.
Overnight in Asia, mixed trade data from China, which showed the fastest exports in more than a year last month paired with muted domestic demand, kept a lid on the regional MSCI ex-Japan benchmark in check, which rose just 0.11%, while the Nikkei 225 fell 0.16% in Tokyo.
Related: Veteran fund manager sees world of pain coming for stocks
