U.S. traded mixed Friday, although volumes were thin as markets prepare for an early post-Thanksgiving close on what is traditionally the busiest shopping day of the year.
Around 182 million Americans are expected to make online or in-store purchases between Black Friday and Cyber Monday – including 130.7 million today along – according to the National Retail Federal, although fading pandemic-era savings, the resumption of student loan payments and elevated inflation is likely to cap spending growth at the slowest pace in five years.
Still, consumers are likely to spend between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion in November and December, according to NRF forecasts, providing a valuable shot-in-the-arm for the broader U.S. economy, which relies on spending services for around two-thirds of its growth, that should push recession forecasts deeper into the coming year.
Coupled with slowing inflation prospects, bets on a so-called 'soft landing' for the domestic economy could justify the market's recent rally, which has lifted the S&P 500 more than 8.6% so far this month, but may also keep the Federal Reserve welded to its 'higher for longer' mantra on interest rates, which have risen by more than 5% since March of last year.
That view is pushing benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields modestly higher in overnight Friday trading, taking them to around 4.480%, while 2-year notes bumped 4 basis points higher to 4.951%.
The U.S. dollar index, meanwhile, was marked 0.18% lower against a basket of its global peers at 103.729, pegging its November decline at 2.76%.
Heading into the start of the trading day on Wall Street, where dealing is scheduled to close at 1:00 PM eastern time, the S&P 500 was marked 0.5 points higher while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 114 points.
The tech-focused Nasdaq, meanwhile, was 32 points lower amid a 1.4% slide for Nvidia (NVDA) -) and a 0.7% gain in Tesla (TSLA) -) shares.
Overseas, stocks were mixed throughout most of the Friday session, although the MSCI World index is on pace for it best monthly gain in two years amid the ongoing U.S. dollar weakness tied to fading Fed rate hike bets.
Europe's Stoxx 600 was marked 0.28% higher in mi-day Frankfurt trading following data from Germany confirming that the region's largest economy contracted by 0.01% over the three months ending in October and raising the prospect of recession heading into the start of next year.
In Asia, stocks were mixed with the MSCI ex-Japan benchmark falling 0.8% thanks to a pullback across markets in China while the Nikkei 225 closed at a four-month high of 33,625.53 points.
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