Summary of the day
That’s a wrap, here is a recap of the latest developments:
Friedrich Merz, whose CDU/CSU bloc won Sunday’s federal election, has called on Europe to unite as he warned the continent was facing its “five to midnight” moment. Merz pointed to the signals emerging from the US which suggest that its interest in Europe is waning.
Merz has said his aim is to form a new government – most likely a coalition with the Social Democratic party – by Easter, which falls in late April this year.
He described the doubling of support for the far-right in the German elections as the “last warning” to the country’s mainstream parties, urging them to reach joint solutions.
Merz has listed foreign and security policy, migration, and the economy as his first three priorities.
Outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz said the election result was a “bitter” moment for him and his SPD party, adding that his government had “tried to do a good job in face of one of the greatest challenges facing our country since 1945,” in a reference to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The election saw the SPD, Germany’s oldest political party, receive the worst ever result in its history.
Scholz has said he would stay on as a chancellor until his successor is confirmed.
Far-right leaders and other anti-immigration firebrands have rejoiced in the gains made by the anti-immigrant pro-Kremlin AfD, which is set to become Germany’s main opposition party. Co-leader Alice Weidel hinted to reporters on Monday that she had been sleeping when Elon Musk rang her to offer his congratulations.
Friedrich Merz marked his conservative alliance’s victory in Germany’s election by urging Europe to make itself more independent from the US – a project that will be music to the ears of Emmanuel Macron but may turn on whether Merz can build a Bundestag majority to lift the so-called debt brake that slows increases in defence spending.
One possibility for the CDU/CSU alliance leader, who is on course to become Germany’s next chancellor, is to claim that the country is in an emergency, to try to force the change through the Bundestag before its dissolution.
Sunday night’s remarks by Merz, a lifelong Atlanticist, show how rapidly European leaders are concluding that Donald Trump’s presidency requires the continent to become more responsible for its own security.
Among those who dialled up Alice Weidel last night to congratulate her over the AfD’s result was Elon Musk.
Speaking to reporters on Monday, the co-leader of Germany’s far-right AfD hinted that she had slept through Musk’s overnight attempt to reach her. The past months have seen the Trump adviser and Tesla CEO repeatedly intervene in the election, touting Weidel and the AfD.
“When I turned on my telephone this morning or rather looked at it, I had missed calls from the US including from Elon Musk who personally congratulated [me],” Weidel told reporters.
My colleagues Deborah Cole and Helen Sullivan have this piece with the latest on the German election:
It has been mentioned casually in passing today that carnival season could get in the way of negotiations over a new government. The remarks might have flummoxed non-Germans, even as they’ve gone more or less unnoticed in Germany itself.
That’s because carnival or ‘Fasching’ as it is more commonly referred to, is an absolute mainstay of Germany’s cultural and political calendar, taking place this year between Thursday 27 February, (so-called Weiberfastnacht) and over so-called Rosenmontag and Faschingsdienstag on 3 and 4 March, as a forerunner to the Lenten season before Easter. Carnival/Fasching takes place in communities across Germany but is most prominent and important in the Rheinland, a typically Catholic stronghold.
It involves elaborate carnival street parades, in which decorative floats which remain under wraps for months beforehand, are on display, and often central to which are bitingly satirical depictions of political life. Sweets and alcohol abound. To an outsider the events often appear absurdly over the top and raucous, especially by the standards of everyday German life. Expect a lot of acerbic jokes this year about Trump, Musk, the AfD, the CDU/CSU’s flirtation with the party, the demise of the pro-business FDP, and the slump in voter support for the SPD.
The very same politicians who are often ribbed in the displays typically make appearances at Carnival events - either the parades themselves or burlesque stage performances taking place on the sidelines - dressed up in often absurd attire, in what many say is not just a great societal pressure valve, helping release the tension in everyday life, but is helpful in trying to form a rapport with the public.
The events are often seen as vital for community life - they are used for networking, striking business deals - even for so-called ‘Seitensprunge’ (literally side-springs or romantic flings), which (the flings) are only supposed to last as long as the topsy-turvy carnival season itself after which life (supposedly) gets back to normal.
Some carnival associations (these are serious organisations, which look to plan events years in advance) even hand out awards to the politicians who have executed the best, most humourful performances, either in carnival or in their political lives.
In the final days of an election campaign dominated by migration, the likely new chancellor of Europe’s biggest polluter sought to assure voters that its economy ministry would not be occupied by NGOs. Instead, the conservative lead candidate Friedrich Merz posted on social media that it would be led by “someone who understands that economic policy is more than being a representative for heat pumps”.
Climate action barely featured on the campaign trail before Germany’s federal elections on Sunday – except when right-leaning parties used it to swipe at the Greens. Merz’s jab was at the tamer end of attacks aimed at the Green party candidate, Robert Habeck, the economy and climate minister who pushed through an unpopular law to promote clean heating, but is a sign of how far the political conversation around climate action has shifted.
And on that note, it’s all from me Jakub Krupa for today as I’m handing the blog over to my colleague Ashifa Kassam, who is also here in Berlin to guide you through the late afternoon.
Stay with us for more reactions on Europe Live.
Post-election reactions from party leaders - summary
Presumed next German chancellor Friedrich Merz has called for more united Europe as he warned the continent was facing its “five to midnight” moment with shifting geopolitics and potential weakening in the transatlantic alliance with the US under Donald Trump.
Merz, whose CDU/CSU won Sunday’s federal election, has signalled his intention to form a new government – most likely a coalition with the Social Democratic party – by Easter, which falls in late April.
He has also repeatedly warned against the risk posed by the rapid rise of the far-right, stressing this puts pressure on his government to deliver and “gradually regain the trust of the citizens in … our democracy.”
Merz has listed foreign and security policy, migration, and the economy as his first three priorities.
Outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz has said the election result was a “bitter” moment for him and the party, saying his government “tried to do a good job in face of one of the greatest challenges facing our country since 1945.”
Scholz has said he would stay on as a chancellor until his successor is confirmed.
For more reactions from other political parties, see the blog below.
Merz also dropped one other hint in his comments that is worth noting: he suggested that he could work with the SPD and the Greens on reforming the debt brake using the political arithmetic in the current Bundestag, before the new parliament gets formed in late March.
We wrote about why this is important here:
Updated
Guardian Europe panel reacts to German election results
For more reactions on the German vote, read this discussion from our Guardian Europe panel of authors and experts.
Katja Hoyer, German-British historian and author of Beyond the Wall: East Germany, 1949–1990, wrote for us:
As the main opposition party, the AfD won’t have to dirty its hands with messy election results and compromise politics. It doesn’t have to find answers to complicated questions. All it has to do is point to conflict between Germany’s centrist parties in their quest for solutions, knowing a fifth of the German electorate lends a lot of weight to the battering ram hammering the firewall.
If there are clear winners of Germany’s 2025 election, it’s the political fringes.
While Mariam Lau, political journalist with Die Zeit, argued:
Merz, a staunch transatlanticist and pro-European, sees Germany at the forefront of the worldwide clash between democracies and authoritarians.
It was a shock for him and his party to see how Elon Musk, the US president’s right-hand man and owner of the platform X, blatantly interfered with the elections in favour of the AfD, a party with many anti-American instincts. Merz openly vented his anger and annoyance at JD Vance’s Munich intervention in the same vein.
It is this – the palpable and existential difference between conservatism and authoritarianism – that will mark his reign, one way or the other.
Merz warns about prospects for 2029 election if his government fails to deliver
Merz ends on a stark warning about the state of democracy in Germany as he says the far-right Alternative für Deutschland is “not interested in solutions, it’s a party that lives off problems.”
He says the next government will have to “solve the problems … and gradually regain the trust of the citizens in … our democracy.”
He warns that if the next government fails to deliver, “by 2029 at the latest we will not be talking about another normal change of government in Germany.”
He says that it is in his interest for the SPD to regroup and bounce back as Germany needs a strong social democratic offer for voters of that persuasion.
Merz also gets a cheeky question asking if he received any congratulations from Angela Merkel, given the difficult relation between the two.
“I haven’t seen any congratulations from Angela Merkel yet. I may have missed them because I received a few hundred text messages over the course of last night,” he replies.
It's 'five to midnight' for Europe, Merz warns, as he calls for united Europe
Pressed further on European politics and the continent’s response to the new US administration and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Merz talks about his relationship with French president Emmanuel Macron and British prime minister Keir Starmer.
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk also gets a mention as “an important partner in these strategic questions of our defence capabilities.”
But Merz says the key message “must be very clear: Europe is united,” as he says there is a new momentum to respond to the challenge, warning it is increasingly urgent as it is “five to midnight” for Europe.
Merz 'cautiously confident' about Nato, says any deal without Ukraine would be 'unacceptable'
Merz also gets asked about whether he still thinks Nato offers necessary protection for Europe, and for his message to US president Donald Trump.
On Nato, he says that the alliance “continues to function well,” praising Nato secretary general Mark Rutte’s direct relationship with Donald Trump.
He also praises the UK for “moving closer to the European continent again so to speak” by assuming an active role in the alliance.
“I am cautiously confident that we will succeed” with making progress on the European pillar of Nato, he says.
He also stresses his support for Nato military presence in central and eastern Europe and “particularly” in the Baltics.
On his message to Trump, he gives a very diplomatic answer, saying that European “have a great interest in maintaining a good relationship with America,” and “still see ourselves as partners.”
He says the two had “the same understanding of open society, freedom, democracy and a market economy,” and he hopes it will continue.
He also gets asked his comments on US from last night, and repeats the line that “all the signals we are getting from the US indicate that interest in Europe is clearly declining, and the willingness to get involved in Europe is decreasing.”
He also warns that “America First” does not have to mean “America alone", warning that if the EU-US relationship gets worse, “it will not only be to the detriment of Europe, it will also be to the detriment of America.”
Asked about the US-Russia talks, he says any deal reached without Ukraine would be “unacceptable” for both Ukraine and for Europe.
Foreign, security policy, migration, the economy as key priorities, Merz says, as he warns against rapid rise of far right
Merz welcomes the election result and says the CDU/CSU “clearly have the mandate to govern.”
He then lists three major issues he sees as priorities for his government.
First, he mentions foreign and security policy, as “especially after the statements [we heard] from Washington last week, is it clear that we Europeans must be able to act very quickly.”
He says this issue “has absolute priority in the coming weeks.”
Second, he talks about migration, with “proposals on the table,” as he expresses hopes that the SPD will work with him on this issue.
Third, he talks about the economic situation in the country, and insists that “we must preserve industrial jobs in Germany.”
He also says that the AfD’s result is “the final warning signal to the political parties of the democratic center in Germany to find common ground.”
He hopes for “constructive, good and speedy” talks with the SPD, with the intention of forming the new government by Easter.
The most likely next German chancellor, CDU/CSU’s Friedrich Merz, is expected to start his press conference shortly.
We will obviously bring you all the key lines here.
Outgoing chancellor Scholz talks of 'bitter result,' will stay in office until successor gets in
Outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz has been speaking in the last few minutes.
He said that “yesterday was a bitter election result for the SPD, and ... today has not got any better.”
He added that his party “tried to do a good job in face of one of the greatest challenges facing our country since 1945.”
But he conceded that “just as I was responsible for the success, I am of course responsible for the current result.”
He pledged to continue in the role of the chancellor “until the last day,” as he stressed Germany’s continuing support for Ukraine.
CSU's Söder wants new chapter on migration, talks of 'encouraging' signals from SPD over coalition
The CSU leader Markus Söder is the latest party leader to offer his reaction to last night results.
He hailed the CSU as “the big election winner” with “a clear mandate to govern,” pointedly saying that the Bavarian party’s strong result lifted the combined CDU/CSU vote share upwards.
Söder also repeated his call for an urgent reform of Germany’s migration policies, saying the CDU/CSU need to fight against the “legacy” view blaming it for the Merkel-era mass migration.
“That is why it is important to close this ... and start a completely new chapter,” he said.
But he also strongly reiterated his opposition to the AfD, saying that even if the parties both call for changes in migration policies, they have “fundamental differences” in their understanding of democracy and positions on issues such as Ukraine.
He said the new government will have to fight back against “long-term destabilisation of Europe,” which only helps Russia.
On the coalition forming process, he expressed relief that the CDU/CSU will only need one partner, saying that any partnership with the Greens was “always a no-go” for him.
“We need a fundamental change of direction in our country ... and I believe that such a change ... can be organised with the SPD,” he added, saying that first signals in their talks were “encouraging.”
Die Linke lauds comeback 'against all expectations', promises to fight against far right AfD
Leaders of the far-left Die Linke has been speaking to reporters in the last few minutes.
The party exceeded expectations with 8.8% of the vote, on the back of strong support from women and younger voters.
Jan van Aken said that the party “has made the political comeback of the year” and “against all expectations,” more than doubling its support in the course of a month.
He positioned Die Linke as “the social opposition in the Bundestag,” even as he expressed frustration over the fact the CDU/CSU and the AfD have jointly got almost 50% of the vote.
“In the next few years, we must focus on winning over others ... for a more social, more progressive Germany,” he said.
He also issued a warning to Friedrich Merz, saying “we know how opposition works, we are good at it,” as he promised very close scrutiny of the future government.
Ines Schwerdtner lauded the party’s result in closely contested constituencies such as Berlin Lichtenberg, where Die Linke fought against a senior AfD candidate.
“We will not abandon the East” to the AfD, she said.
Heidi Reichinnek, widely credited with leading the party’s surge in recent weeks, also reference the battle against the AfD saying “it was wonderful to wake up in Lichtenberg today, with its still being red.”
She said the party would now focus on affordable rents and removing VAT on certain products, among others.
Updated
Hungary’s Orbán and Trump ally Musk congratulate AfD's Weidel and ignore winner Merz
Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán has pointedly congratulated the far-right Alternative für Deutschland on their election result, but unusually ignoring the winning CDU/CSU party.
Orbán, who met with AfD’s co-leader Alice Weidel in Budapest in the final weeks of the campaign, said:
The people of Germany voted for change in immense numbers. I want to congratulate @Alice_Weidel on doubling @AfD’s share of the votes. Good luck and God bless Germany!
Close Trump ally, Elon Musk, who repeatedly sought to interfere with the electoral campaign by promoting the AfD on X, also picked up on Orbán’s comments, saying:
Indeed, congratulations @Alice_Weidel! At this rate of growth, @AfD will be the majority party by the next election.
2025 German election results - in visuals
Habeck to give up leading role in Greens as he warns about 'frightening' normalisation of far right
The Greens chancellor candidate Robert Habeck joins a growing list of leaders moving to a back seat as a result of yesterday’s vote.
Speaking to reporters in the last half hour, he acknowledged that the party wanted to get a better result, and said it would now reposition itself with a new executive committee – with him no longer taking a leading role.
He also spoke about “frightening” normalisation of the far-right AfD and its language on migration, as he called out CDU/CSU Friedrich Merz for what he described as adopting some of their position as their own.
He also talked about the need for Europe to respond to the new US administration by becoming more self-reliant, including in technologies.
Following up on Wagenknecht’s complaints about the overseas vote, it is definitely something that emerged on social media over the weekend.
Even the German ambassador to the UK Miguel Berger complained about it, saying he did not receive his ballots on time to vote.
“Deadlines were calculated too tightly and the procedures are too bureaucratic. Reform is urgently needed,” he said in a social media post.
His comments drew a strong reaction from many Germans complaining about the way the overseas voting process is organised, in contrast to countries which open polling stations at their embassies and consulates instead.
Sahra Wagenknecht wants to challenge result, election process
One of the big stories overnight was the result of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which ultimately ended up just below the 5% threshold for getting into the next Bundestag securing 4.97% of votes.
Sahra Wagenknecht spoke to reporters in the last half hour, saying that her party missed out on the Bundestag by just over 13,000 votes to get in, as she complained about difficulties some people, particularly overseas, experienced with postal voting.
She said that she would challenge the result and the voting process, as this disruption might have cost her party a place in the next parliament.
She also made a number of unverified allegations claiming that research institutes and polling agencies deliberately put out polls saying the party could struggle to get into the parliament to discourage voters from supporting her party.
But looking for positives, she said that more people voted for the party than in the last year’s European elections, repeatedly talking about the difficulties of running a new challenger-type political movement.
Updated
Jubilant AfD's Weidel hails historic result, says she got congratulations from Elon Musk
Berlin correspondent
Jubilant Alice Weidel, and Tino Chrupalla, leaders of the AfD, speaking to the press in Berlin just now, said it was high time the media stopped “pulling us through the cocoa” – a reference to associating the party with fascism.
A confident and beaming Weidel once again predicted the party would take over the CDU in elections in the next few years, and would “bring order to Germany”. She noted the party had won twice as many votes in eastern Germany, as the CDU, securing 45 out of 48 available seats there.
Asked if she had been contacted by Elon Musk following the AfD’s strong election result, she said:
This morning, when I turned on my phone, I saw I had received calls and messages from the USA, including from Elon Musk with personal congratulations.
I will telephone today – with whom I won’t tell you here and now because it’s covered by a certain level of trust – but we’re in touch. We’re the power in Germany that is internationally recognised. We’re in contact with all sides and that includes the Trump administration.
Chrupalla then jumped in to excitedly add that he too had received a large number of congratulatory messages, including from “two German national players, two former Bayern Munich players”.
Who exactly, he did not say but the hunt will now surely be on to identify them.
Updated
Migration policy central to coalition talks between CDU/CDU and SPD – snap analysis
Berlin correspondent
Merz’s CDU/CSU is banking on Lars Klingbeil, head of the SPD, and a very respected figure in the party, managing to win around his members to the idea that the party needs a switch in its migration politics, and that this is what its voters would also like to see. Only then is it possible to see a coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD coming to fruition, due to the thorny issue of migration.
However, while the conservatives view Klingbeil as a reliable potential negotiating partner, they are fearful of a questionnaire which it is reported will be sent out to members, the so-called ‘SPD-Basis’, about what sort of coalition conditions they would be willing to accept.
On the plus side for the CDU/CSU is a poll carried out amongst ex-SPD voters – ie those who abandoned the party for other camps – for whom migration is the number one topic in which they stated the party needs a new migration policy.
The hope CDU/CSU have is that the SPD can be persuaded that an upturn on their party’s fortunes is dependent on a radical migration rethink. This will fill many SPD supporters with horror and could cause a huge rift in Germany’s oldest political party (founded 1875).
Merz’s aim is for a new government to be formed by Easter (20/21 April). But coalition talks are not due to officially begin until 6 March, taking into account carnival season in the Rheinland (yes, that’s right) and the state election due to be held in Hamburg on 2 March.
Until then unofficial negotiations will be taking place behind closed doors.
Ukraine 'must be part of peace talks,' Merz insists
As European leaders gather in Kyiv to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s aggression on Ukraine, presumed next German chancellor Friedrich Merz offered his take on the war, writing in a social media post that “Europe remains firmly on the side of Ukraine.”
“Now more than ever, we must put Ukraine in a position of strength. For a just peace, the attacked country must be part of peace negotiations,” he said.
Merz makes first contact with SPD over coalition talks - analysis
Berlin correspondent
Friedrich Merz, who now has the – some would say unenviable task – of trying to form a coalition, his CDU/CSU having won the Germany’s election with 29% of the vote, reportedly made his first phone call to the Social Democrats late last night.
Party leader Lars Klingbeil picked up, but even though the maths works – the two parties together would have enough seats to govern in a two way alliance – the SPD is in a severely weakened position. Having experienced its worst ever election result of 16%, (Klingbeil celebrated his birthday yesterday, and admitted it was not a happy one), the electorate having clearly signalled it is not in favour of SPD participation in government, the new constellation, even if it is realised, is in danger of disappointing before it even has the chance to get to work.
For the CDU/CSU the ‘fear’ of having to enter a three-way coalition with the Greens (on 12%) has been eliminated, which will make Merz’s job a little easier.
The three-way coalition of Olaf Scholz crumbled due to major incompatibilities between its members (SPD, Greens, FDP), and the idea of another similar line up was nobody’s idea of a sensible way forward in the first place.
But as the AfD’s Alice Weidel warned several times last night, the CDU/CSU will have a headache explaining to its electorate how it will do politics with the SPD. The two parties have more or less diametrically opposed ideas when it comes to migration. Merz has pledged a tough new course on migration and said it will be the main condition for a coalition agreement.
Merz’s big idea is to deport all illegal migrants – ie those who don’t have the correct papers – from all of Germany’s borders.
The SPD has already stated that the turning back of migrants without a valid entry permit, including asylum seekers, would be illegal – and would endanger the EU’s existence.
Potential coalition partners who do not go along with the CDU’s plan – for which it has received the AfD’s backing in parliament – will not be part of the government, the CDU’s general secretary Carsten Linnemann has repeatedly stated.
Merz’s party has repeatedly and vehemently ruled out entering a coalition with the AfD.
Just how quickly Merz will be able to put a stable government into place is perhaps the biggest question looming the morning after this historic election night.
By the way, if you are interested in updates on Ukraine on the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion, you can follow them on our Ukraine blog, led by Martin Belam here:
Updated
EU hopes to see new German government form 'as fast as possible,' EU foreign policy chief says
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas is in Brussels this morning where EU foreign ministers meet to discuss the Russian war against Ukraine on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion, the situation in the Middle East, and in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Kallas was also asked about the German election, and here is what she said:
I expect close cooperation with the new German government. So German people have made their choice.
Now they need to put together the government, and I hope that they do it as fast as possible, because we really need to move on with the decisions, also on the European level that requires German participation.
Morning opening: Viel Glück, Herr Merz!
Guten Morgen aus Berlin,
In November 2019, Freidrich Merz joined a conference of German students at Harvard.
Freshly returned to politics after a decade in business, but not even a CDU/CSU leader at the time yet as he lost the bid to succeed Angela Merkel to Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, he spoke at length about his affinity with the US, which he had been “travelling to for 40 years now,” with “more than 150 visits.”
Long seen as one of the most pro-American politicians in Germany, the former executive of US investment company BlackRock admitted that under the first Trump presidency, Europe had “some strong debates with this US government and this US president” in particular.
But he urged the students to “fight for our open society and what Europe and America have in common ... to fight for freedom, ... for open speech, of religion, of the press, of our societies entirely.”
At the end of the speech, he promised, as people casually do at these sort of conferences, that he would be back to Harvard ten years later to give an update on how things are going.
Well, we are not quite in 2029 just yet, but speaking on live TV after leading the CDU/CSU union to an election win last night, he struck a noticeably different tone.
He spoke about his conversations with European leaders to “strengthen Europe as quickly as possible, so that we achieve independence from the US, step by step.”
“I never thought that I would ever need to say something like that, on television, but after the latest statements made by Donald Trump last week, it is clear, that the Americans – at any case these Americans, this administration – mostly don’t care about the fate of Europe one way or another,” he added.
And if that was not enough to show the dramatic change in his tone, he also took aim at close Trump aide, billionaire Elon Musk, saying that his “interventions from Washington were no less drastic, dramatic, and ultimately no less brazen, than the interventions that we have seen from Moscow.”
Tell us what you really think, Friedrich.
Assuming he intends to keep his word and return to Harvard in 2029 as promised, it is now up to him as the presumed German chancellor to define and shape what sort of message on Germany, Europe, and the future of our relations with the US he will be in a position to deliver.
Viel Glück, Herr Merz! You may need it.
It’s Monday, 24 February 2025, and this is Europe live. It’s Jakub Krupa here.
Good morning.
The CDU/CSU alliance is keen to start coalition talks as soon as possible, Jens Spahn, deputy leader of the parliamentary group, has told the broadcaster ARD. He said:
From our point of view it can get going very, very quickly. We should hold the first talks this week already, in the coming days.
Referring to the current global situation and the war in Ukraine: “ We need German leadership in Europe”.
He also said that the CDU/CSU must be ready to make compromises in its talks with the SPD, adding that what would be decisive would be whether the two parties had the common will to make Germany stronger, restore trust in democracy and to limit immigration.
My impression is that there are many people in the SPD who also see that we can and should do something together, and then we will find compromises.
Updated
The German papers have given their verdicts on Sunday’s election. Bild, the country’s largest circulation newspaper, declared “Merz does it!” in its headline, adding among other things “SPD so bad as never before!”, “AfD almost doubled”, “The Greens cry, the Left celebrates”.
The Tagesspiegel warns “Election victor Merz faces tough coalition talks”, and adds the sub headlines “SPD crashes, Greens lose”, “AfD becomes second strongest force”.
The Süddeutsche Zeitung has used a quote from the victorious Friedrich Merz as its headline: “The world out there isn’t waiting for us” and reports that the chancellor-in-waiting wants to form a coalition by Easter.
The Handelsblatt splashes on “Election winner Merz”, adding “The Union (CDU/CSU) wins the elections. The AfD achieves a record result. The SPD loses drastically – and the FDP fails to pass the 5% hurdle.”
The Rheinische Post leads with “Scholz voted out, Merz ahead, AfD doubles [its vote]” and reported that a record turnout had left the CDU/CSU in pole position.
Updated
More congratulations are coming in as Europe starts waking up. António Costa, European Council president, said in a post on X:
I look forward to working closely with him to make Europe stronger, more prosperous and more autonomous. These might be challenging times. But I know that, just like in the past, the European Union will deliver and come out stronger.
According to the broadcaster ZDF, this is how seats will be allocated according to Germany’s rather complicated voting system, which was recently reformed to cap the number of MPs at 630, after their ranks ballooned in recent years:
CDU/CSU: 208 seats
AfD: 152 seats
SPD: 120 seats
The Greens: 85 seats
The Left: 64 seats
SSW: 1 seat
The results mean Merz’s CDU/CSU alliance can form a “grand coalition” with the SPD and avoid having to form an unwieldy three-way coalition of the sort that Olaf Scholz headed, and which ultimately undid him.
However there are significant policy differences between the SPD and the CDU, not least on the economy – German has been in recession for two years – and Ukraine. Germany is Kyiv’s second biggest supplier of military aid after the US.
“These are difficult starting conditions for a new German government, which is facing Herculean tasks in domestic and foreign policy,” said Cornelia Woll of the Hertie School Berlin, according to AFP.
“One might hope that Germany will nevertheless be able to act quickly, so that it does not just have to watch how Trump and Putin shape the future.”
What's in Merz's in tray?
Friedrich Merz, a former banker who has never been a government minister, appears almost certain to be the next chancellor of Germany after his conservative CDU/CSU alliance won the most votes in Sunday’s crucial federal election.
During the campaign his decision to win a vote in parliament by relying on far-right support proved a historic and highly controversial turning point, even if he has since insisted he would never break Germany’s “firewall” (“brandmauer”) by going into coalition government with the anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland.
As testing as the domestic political – and economic – landscape is, however, many of Merz’s most pressing challenges may well come from outside Germany. The man who once won plaudits by claiming he could simplify the life of millions of people by reducing tax rules so they would fit on the back of a beer coaster faces an altogether more complex reality.
Merz, a keen aviator and married father of three, whose wife prevented him from buying his own private jet until his children were out of the house (he now reportedly owns two), will want to make his mark early on. Here’s a brief look at his in-tray.
The record result of the far-right AfD was for many the most important result of the night. The party came in second place on 20.8%, which, if Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD joins the CDU in a “grand coalition”, will make it the largest opposition party in parliament.
It’s a sobering result for a country that has prided itself on its memory culture, a reference to the Holocaust and other horrors of the second world war, and its determination never to let such things happen again.
Many have warned that if Friedrich Merz and his new government fail to get to grips with the many challenges, both domestic and foreign, facing the country, then the AfD will be waiting in the wings at the next election to potentially become the largest party.
Writing in Spiegel magazine, Christoph Hickmann said:
Chancellor Merz’s task will be to restore trust in the political centre and more: in the system and in the superiority of liberal democracy over authoritarian approaches. No chancellor has faced such a huge challenge since reunification.
The fact that a fifth of voters have chosen to put their support behind a party that is considering deporting Germans of migrant background – though they may not all agree explicitly with that policy – is “not a wake-up call, not a so-called alarm, but a vote of mistrust against the political centre”, he wrote.
Germany has long been seen as the EU’s “indispensable nation” – the biggest, richest and most consequential power. But in recent years Berlin has widely been regarded as missing in action in the EU, hobbled by internecine feuding in a coalition government that has caused flip-flops and delayed decisions.
Olaf Scholz has a cool relationship with Emmanuel Macron, slowing down the fabled Franco-German motor that powers the EU. The Polish-German relationship has also been rocky, strained by disputes over European air defence and historical grievances.
Friedrich Merz, on course to become Germany’s next chancellor, has promised to restore German leadership in Europe.
“I think Merz and his team understand the urgency of the global situation and that we need a functioning German government soon,” said Jana Puglierin, the head of the Berlin office at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“The situation is so urgent that we need to first agree on some fundamental principles to be able to speak with a voice in Brussels … of course, for the EU, the earlier the better.”
The rest of Europe is looking to the continent’s biggest economy to send more military aid to Ukraine. Merz, who has previously warned Scholz against “an appeasement policy” towards Russia, has promised to send Kyiv long-range Taurus cruise missiles long denied.
He is also likely to face demands to send German troops to Ukraine as part of a deterrent or peacekeeping force, a discussion that Scholz described as “completely premature”.
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Foreign leaders have congratulated Friedrich Merz on his win. The UK’s prime minister Keir Starmer wrote in a post on X:
I look forward to working with the new government to deepen our already strong relationship, enhance our joint security and deliver growth for both our countries.
Emmanuel Macron offered his congratulations to Friedrich Merz and his “friendship” to Olaf Scholz, with whom he has had an at times fraught relationship. In a post on X, the French president added:
We are more determined than ever to achieve great things together for France and Germany and work towards a strong and sovereign Europe. In this time of uncertainty, we are united to face the major challenges of the world and our continent.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he looked forward to continuing to work with Germany and said pointedly that Europe needed to be able to defend itself. He said:
Europe must be able to defend itself, develop its industries, and achieve the necessary results. Europe needs shared successes, and those success will bring even greater unity to Europe.”
US President Donald Trump did not directly congratulate Merz but said in an all caps post on his Truth Social website of the CDU win:
Much like the USA, the people of Germany got tired of the no-common-sense agenda, especially on energy and immigration ... This is a great day for Germany and for the United States of America under the leadership of a gentleman names Donald J Trump.
Updated
Opening summary
Hello and welcome to our live coverage of the German election results.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz has said his “absolute priority” will be to strengthen Europe so as to achieve independence from the US in defence matters as he prepares to embark on coalition negotiations that are expected to last until Easter.
Speaking on Sunday evening Merz said US President Donald Trump had made it “clear that [his] government is fairly indifferent to Europe’s fate” and that Germany would have to wait to see “whether we will still be able to speak about Nato in its current form” when the alliance meets for its next summit in June.
“For me, the absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA” in defence matters, Merz said.
His centre-right CDU/CSU alliance came top of the German election, winning 28.5% of the vote, while outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) crashed to its worst result since the second world war, gaining just 16.4% of the vote. The two would have just enough seats to form a so-called grand coalition and this is considered the most likely option for Merz.
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party was meanwhile celebrating its best result ever, having secured second place on 20.8%. The party’s chancellor candidate and co-leader, Alice Weidel, called it a “historic success for us – our best result ever.”
“We extend our hand to offer cooperation with the CDU. Otherwise change won’t be possible in Germany,” she added. All mainstream parties have ruled out a coalition with the AfD however, due to the country’s firewall, or taboo, barring cooperation with the far-right.
Here’s a roundup of the latest developments:
The Greens, the SPD’s coalition partner, slumped by three percentage points to 11.6%. The Left has surged to 8.8% and the liberal FDP – which triggered the early election by collapsing Olaf Scholz’s coalition – along with the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance failed to meet the 5% threshold required top get into parliament.
The results mean Merz could form a so-called “grand coalition” with the SPD, without needing to find a third party. That would mean a future government would be more stable and less fractious than for example Scholz’s.
The Social Democratic party was left reeling on the back of a historically low vote share, with outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz, admitting it was a “bitter result”. He said he would not be involved in any coalition talks with the CDU/CSU, with other SPD leaders expected to lead negotiations.
Merz hailed “a historic election evening,” and acknowledged the responsibility and the scale of the task ahead. He said he planned to form a coalition by Easter and told party faithful that “the world out there is not waiting for us and for lengthy negotiations.”
Alice Weidel, co-leader of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) called the result “historic” for her party, having doubled the number of votes from 2021. Weidel said her party remained open to coalition talks with other parties, and said excluding the AfD was the equivalent to “voter fraud”.
The AfD swept all five former East German states: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Saxony and Thuringia. It won well over 30% of the vote in each state and as much as 38.6% in Thuringia – that’s where the AfD made history in September as the first far-right party to win a state election since the second world war.
Christian Lindner, the leader of the liberal FDP whose falling out with Scholz triggered the collapse of his coalition government and paved the way for early elections, resigned after his party failed to reach the 5% threshold to re-enter parliament. In a post on X, he said would retire from active politics and said he hoped the election would bring a “new start for Germany”.
