March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -0.01%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.08% this morning as investors awaited the latest reading on U.S. job openings, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and corporate earnings reports from heavyweight names.
Stock futures initially moved lower after China retaliated to new U.S. tariffs. China’s Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council announced on Tuesday that it will impose a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% tariffs on crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-displacement vehicles, and pickup trucks. The measures are set to take effect on February 10th. China’s commerce ministry also announced that starting Tuesday, the country will implement export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium products. In addition, China said it would launch an antitrust probe into Google. This marked the resumption of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies, though China’s response was seen as restrained.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the red. Moderna (MRNA) sank over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 as vaccine makers retreated amid expectations that vaccine skeptic Robert Kennedy Jr. would be appointed to lead the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Also, automobile stocks dropped after President Trump announced tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, with Tesla (TSLA) sliding more than -5% and General Motors (GM) falling over -3%. In addition, FedEx (FDX) slumped more than -6% after Loop Capital downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy. On the bullish side, IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) surged over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the pet healthcare company posted upbeat Q4 results and issued solid 2025 EPS guidance.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in January, stronger than expectations of 49.3 and marking the highest level in 2-1/3 years. Also, the U.S. January S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised upward to 51.2, beating the consensus of 50.1. In addition, U.S. construction spending rose +0.5% m/m in December, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated on Monday that the central bank should be more cautious in reducing borrowing costs due to increasing uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration. “Now we’ve got to be a little more careful and more prudent of how fast rates can come down because there are risks that inflation is about to start kicking back up again,” Goolsbee said. Also, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that he wants to wait “a while” before lowering interest rates again following last year’s cuts, given the uncertainty surrounding the direction of the U.S. economy in 2025. In addition, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, “There’s no urgency for making additional adjustments.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 86.5% probability of no rate change and a 13.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full flow, with investors anticipating fresh reports from major companies today, including Alphabet (GOOGL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), PepsiCo (PEP), Merck (MRK), Amgen (AMGN), Pfizer (PFE), and PayPal (PYPL). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the December JOLTs Job Openings will arrive at 8.010M, compared to the November figure of 8.098M.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Factory Orders data. Economists expect this figure to be -0.7% m/m in December, compared to the previous number of -0.4% m/m.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.579%, up +0.79%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up +0.15% this morning as investors digested a mixed bag of corporate earnings. Also, concerns about a potential trade war between the world’s largest economies, the U.S. and China, kept sentiment subdued. Technology stocks outperformed on Tuesday, with Infineon Technologies AG (IFX.D.DX) climbing more than +9% after the German chipmaker raised its full-year revenue guidance. At the same time, financial and telecommunication stocks retreated. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday threatened to impose trade tariffs on the European Union and U.K. Trump told the BBC that a deal could be “worked out” with the U.K., but remained adamant that tariffs on European goods “will definitely happen.” The EU pledged a firm response. In other corporate news, Vodafone Group Plc (VOD.LN) slid over -5% after reporting further deterioration in Germany, its largest market, in the fiscal third quarter. Also, Diageo Plc (DGE.LN) fell more than -3% after the world’s top spirits maker withdrew its medium-term guidance due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. On the bullish side, BNP Paribas (BNP.FP) gained over +2% after reporting better-than-expected Q4 net income.
The European economic data slate is mainly empty on Tuesday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed up +0.72%, while mainland China’s financial markets were closed for a holiday.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index ended higher today, partially rebounding from yesterday’s slump, after U.S. President Trump agreed to delay the start of tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada by a month. Automobile stocks, which took a hit in the previous session, outperformed on Tuesday. Financial stocks also advanced. However, the benchmark index pared some of its earlier gains after China announced retaliatory tariffs on certain U.S. goods. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated on Tuesday that the central bank will target achieving 2% inflation, as measured by the overall consumer price index, on a sustained basis. Investor attention is now on Wednesday’s release of the latest wage figures from Japan, which could impact the BOJ’s monetary policy outlook. In corporate news, Murata Manufacturing climbed over +5% after the company posted an increase in revenue, operating profit, and profit before tax for the nine months ending December 31st, 2024. At the same time, Mitsubishi Motors tumbled more than -14% after cutting its full-year net profit guidance due to sluggish wholesale sales and higher-than-expected costs. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed down -5.81% to 23.20.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index was closed today for the Lunar New Year holiday. Mainland China’s financial markets will reopen tomorrow.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) surged over +17% in pre-market trading after the company posted upbeat Q4 results and issued above-consensus Q1 and FY25 revenue guidance.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) climbed more than +6% in pre-market trading after the artificial intelligence server maker announced that it would provide an FQ2 business update on February 11th.
PepsiCo (PEP) fell over -2% in pre-market trading after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue and provided a disappointing 2025 outlook.
Illumina (ILMN) and PVH Corp. (PVH) dropped more than -4% in pre-market trading after China placed the companies on its “unreliable entity list.”
Synaptics (SYNA) slid about -5% in pre-market trading after the company said that Michael Hurlston was stepping down as President and Chief Executive Officer and as a member of the Board of Directors, effective immediately.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Tuesday - February 4th
Alphabet (GOOGL), Merck (MRK), PepsiCo (PEP), AMD (AMD), Amgen (AMGN), Pfizer (PFE), KKR & Co (KKR), Spotify Tech (SPOT), Apollo Global Management A (APO), PayPal (PYPL), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG), Mondelez (MDLZ), Transdigm (TDG), Regeneron Pharma (REGN), Enterprise Products Partners LP (EPD), Simon Property (SPG), Cummins (CMI), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Fair Isaac (FICO), Ametek (AME), Prudential Financial (PRU), Gartner (IT), Willis Towers Watson (WTW), Centene (CNC), Electronic Arts (EA), WEC Energy (WEC), Xylem (XYL), Estee Lauder (EL), Veralto (VLTO), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Fox Corp (FOXA), Atmos Energy (ATO), Hubbell (HUBB), Snap (SNAP), Essex Property (ESS), Jacobs Engineering (J), Aspen (AZPN), Omnicom (OMC), Carlisle (CSL), Pentair (PNR), IDEX (IEX), Ball (BALL), CNH Industrial NV (CNH), Unum (UNM), Jack Henry&Associates (JKHY), Juniper (JNPR), American Financial (AFG), Aramark Holdings (ARMK), Amdocs (DOX), Match Group (MTCH), Enphase (ENPH), Ingredion (INGR), Graphic Packaging (GPK), ATI Inc (ATI), Berry Global (BERY), Axalta Coating Systems (AXTA), H&R Block (HRB), Azek Company (AZEK), FMC (FMC), Voya Financial Inc (VOYA), Zurn Water Solutions (ZWS), Hamilton Lane (HLNE), Mattel (MAT), Nov (NOV), The Hanover Insurance (THG), Intapp (INTA), Madison Square Garden Sports (MSGS), Champion Homes (SKY), Cirrus (CRUS), Enact Holdings (ACT), Varonis Systems (VRNS), Modine Manufacturing (MOD), Columbia Sportswear (COLM), Lumen Technologies (LUMN), Lancaster Colony (LANC), Silicon Labs (SLAB), Golub (GBDC), Oscar Health (OSCR), DXC Technology (DXC), PJT Partners Inc (PJT), Mueller Water Products (MWA), Western Union (WU), Artisan Partners AM (APAM), Douglas Emmett (DEI), Enova International Inc (ENVA), Atkore Intl (ATKR), Mercury (MRCY), Energizer (ENR), Kulicke&Soffa (KLIC), Premier Inc (PINC), O-I Glass (OI), Allegiant (ALGT), CTS Corp (CTS), American Assets (AAT), A10 Network (ATEN), InMode (INMD), FLEX LNG (FLNG), Oaktree Specialty Lending (OCSL), Brandywine (BDN), Ichor Holdings (ICHR), Mesa Labs (MLAB), InnovAge Holding (INNV), Kimball Electronics (KE), CVRx (CVRX), 8x8 (EGHT), AudioCodes (AUDC), Aviat (AVNW).
