Nottingham Forest proved in January the progress they are making. For many, the victories over Arsenal and arch-rivals Derby were the biggest moments, but for others getting expensive flops off the books and not overpaying in the market were significant.
The departures of Carl Jenkinson and Lyle Taylor, among others, take the club one step closer to escaping the previous era of excess, when players were signed on inflated wages in the hope of securing a return to the Premier League. In recent years many shortsighted incomings have not lived up to their billing, leaving Forest, who face Leicester in the FA Cup on Sunday, losing money without the reward of promotion.
Jenkinson joined in summer 2019 but played 11 games in two and a half years. Taylor, who was earning more than £30,000 a week, has left on loan after scoring eight times in 60 appearances since signing a three-year deal aged 30, a further sign of financial exuberance.
Forest’s latest accounts showed a £32m operating loss for the year ending March 2020, a sign things needed to change. Dane Murphy arrived last year from Barnsley to become the chief executive and a new statistics-led recruitment team was installed with a remit to lower the cost and average age of the squad. Murphy plays a key role in recruitment, offering a different perspective after playing professionally in the United States and Germany.
Fifteen first-team players have left on permanent or loan deals since the end of last season while summer recruits had to be 26 or younger and cost less than £10,000 a week. This season’s departures have reduced the average age and saved millions in wages.
Despite optimism the squad was capable of promotion, things started badly under Chris Hughton, six defeats in their first seven matches leaving them bottom with one point when the manager was sacked in September.
The former Swansea head coach Steve Cooper arrived to galvanise a squad low on confidence. Cooper was Forest’s first choice thanks to his work improving young players at Liverpool and Swansea and within the England setup. He has made the players believe in themselves and they have dragged themselves into play-off contention with 12 wins in his opening 22 games.
The game that pushed the two-times European Cup winners back into the limelight was their FA Cup third-round win over Arsenal. Smart recruitment was plain as Djed Spence, on loan from Middlesbrough, was a standout performer at right-back, leading to interest from numerous Premier League clubs.
In front of him was the academy graduate Brennan Johnson, who was then the subject of recording-breaking bids from Brentford. Spence was not wanted by Neil Warnock at the Riverside and Hughton was keen to loan Johnson for a season in League One to aid his experience but both have flourished in the Championship. It is a sign of progress on and off the pitch that Forest felt able to reject the money on offer for Johnson because they did not want to damage a squad on the up.
Cooper’s success has quickly earned him the respect of the Greek owners, who sanctioned the signing of Steve Cook from Bournemouth on a deal running to 2024 even though the centre-back is 30. Cook is seen by Cooper as the experienced player who can help coach his young side through games as they look to secure promotion.
Cooper and the recruitment team operate in tandem. On deadline day they missed out on the wingers Jed Wallace and Josh Bowler because of Millwall’s and Blackpool’s valuations. Previously, Forest might have panicked and paid for players but the regime held firm to avoid overpaying. Instead, they moved for Sam Surridge to cover for the injured Lewis Grabban and the defender Jonathan Panzo joined from Dijon, both within the business model.
The net has been spread far to find bargains. Forest targeted Benfica’s Gonçalo Ramos and Internazionale’s Martín Satriano in January, and Richie Laryea arrived from Toronto FC. They have been smart in the loan market, bringing in Spence, Max Lowe, Philip Zinckernagel and the returning James Garner in the summer, and in January adding Keinan Davis, who would have joined before the season started but for injury. In the long term the club would like to move away from having so many loan players.
Leicester, the next Premier League side to be tested by this evolving team, won the top flight thanks to careful scouting and management, making them a role model for Forest. If promotion does not come this season, it would not be the crushing blow it was previously. Instead, Forest would go into next season with a platform to build on, rather than making the wholesale changes that have become tradition at the City Ground.
