It’s one of the biggest questions facing Wales head coach Wayne Pivac this summer.
Well, some would see it in those terms.
Should Alun Wyn Jones start in the Test series against South Africa?
Opinion will be split. Some will point to Jones’ age — he is 36 — and point out that things didn’t go especially well the last time he played a game of international rugby. In fact, let's not put too fine a point on it: things went calamitously for Wales, with Italy winning in Cardiff for the first time.
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Also, the man Jones replaced in that game, Will Rowlands, had a fine championship; indeed, plenty felt him to be Wales’ best player, though it’s an understatement to suggest the bar was set low. Adam Beard, the other lock in the mix, has become a Pivac favourite and acted as Wales’ pack leader during the Six Nations.
But there will be another group who’ll stand four-square behind Jones, pointing out that there were 22 other players in Wales’ squad against the Azzurri and the former captain has qualities that no coach in his right mind should think of doing without heading into a Test against South Africa.
Where does Jones’ old coach at the Ospreys, Sean Holley, stand on the issue?
“I wouldn’t be surprised if Alun Wyn plays in the first Test,” he says.
“Wales are going to need experience in South Africa and no player has more experience of international rugby than Al.”
Doubtless, Pivac will factor in training performances, as well, and few train as hard as Jones.
The head coach will know the Ospreys man can’t go on for ever, but there were signs in the United Rugby Championship games towards the end of the season there is still petrol in the tank. Against the Dragons in Swansea he made more ground with ball in hand than any other home forward, while he was in the thick of it in the following round against the Bulls, working hard in defence and doing all he could to combat the physicality of a team who have since gone on to reach the URC final.
Pivac will be wondering at the back of his mind whether the 150-cap warrior from Mumbles can make it through to the next World Cup but after the Italy experience he’ll also know the most important game in Test rugby is the next one.
In the back row, Wales are without Justin Tipuric and Ross Moriarty but they still have a number of battle-hardened options including Dan Lydiate, Josh Navidi and Taulupe Faletau.
What would be Holley’s back row? “Josh Navidi, Taulupe Faletau and Jac Morgan,” he says., unhesitatingly.
“That said, we know Jac is not going.
“I thought he’d be in the squad, but a coach can take only so many players. The selectors may feel they’ve seen enough of Jac and he’s still there for the future and this an opportunity to look at another player.
“For me, if they were going to pick Tommy Reffell, it was probably a decision over Taine Basham or Jac Morgan. Taine has played well for Wales and for the Dragons, but Jac Morgan’s a special player.
“My guess is they’ll pick some established people in the first Test, perhaps Navidi and Faletau. If they are picking a specialist seven it will probably be Basham to start with, but if I were a Wales coach I’d want to see Reffell at some point.
“He’ll be capped out there — there’d be no point picking him otherwise. He’ll probably feature in the second or third game, to give him a chance to show he’s up to Test standard.”
A United Rugby Championship final between the Stormers and the Bulls underlines the buoyancy of South African rugby right now. Conversely, there are potentially aliens on distant planets who might have heard that Welsh rugby is experiencing difficulties on and off the field.
And while Springboks coach Jacques Nienaber has talked Wales up, his words do not chime with those of a significant section of the local media, who are clearly expecting Pivac’s side to be steamrollered.
“I am a bit worried myself about the trip,” says Holley.
“It's coming at a difficult time, with Wales not playing very well, the regions having their own challenges and a couple of important guys missing.
“I’m a bit worried South Africa are sharpening the studs and licking their lips at the prospect of an under-performing Wales visiting. My guess is they’ll want to remind us that they are the world champions and that they are ready to be the next world champions.
“Having the South African sides in the URC has given them some good exposure to our rugby up here. They are going to be well–prepared, so it’s going to be tough.
“That said, it is what it is. The fixtures are in the book and the tour could prove a good learning experience.
“I don’t think it will go the way of 1998 (when Wales lost heavily). That was a massive watershed moment for our rugby and I’m hoping it’s not going to be the same. I still think we can be challenge at international level. We were in the game against France in the Six Nations and the same applied against England.
“My thinking is Wales can still field a competitive 15. There’s George North, the nines are good, Daniel Biggar played very well in the Six Nations and we have some very good players in the back row.
“But the physicality in the front five is going to be tested and that’s where games in South Africa are won and lost. The Springboks will know that and try to exploit it. So it’s a challenge for Wayne Pivac, Jon Humphreys and the players, but it’s the kind of test you want a year out from a World Cup.”
Despite the potential for a difficult trip, Pivac should have a number of questions answered by the time Wales return home. "He'll want to see whether Tommy Reffell can cut it at Test level," says Holley. "Can Will Rowlands back up his Six Nations performances? Does Dewi Lake stand out in the hotbed of South Africa as this hugely impressive physical athlete who’s emerged on the Welsh scene and we have such high hopes for.
"Myself, I'm looking forward to seeing George North play.
“He’s back after a long time out and the question is whether Wayne will play him at 13.
“I like the way Johnny Williams finished the season. He went really well and it’ll be intriguing to see how he goes if he features.
“We know the games are going to test our players, but the series will let Wayne Pivac know where Wales stand.”
Pivac himself could do with a decent tour.
There are still questions about the type of game he wants to play and time is short, with the World Cup just 15 months away.
He faced calls for his head after the loss to Italy, and South Africa isn’t the place to go for tea and sympathy. A difficult tour could end with more criticism and scrutiny. Holley, though, feels the New Zealander is likely to stay in post through to the World Cup.
“Off the back of the Six Nations, you probably wouldn’t feel safe as a coach, but you’d like to think if a change were to be made it would have been made after the Six Nations.
“Wayne’s probably going to take Wales into the World Cup.
“I just hope people understand where Wales are, where South Africa are and cut Wales a bit of slack this summer.
“We’ll be looking for some sort of performance and a reaction after Italy in the Six Nations — and I think we’ll see that because we have a proud bunch of players.
“But everyone knows the scale of the challenge.”
