THE SNP have posted a significant lead over Scottish Labour in the first Scotland-specific General Election polling of 2025.
A survey run for the Holyrood Sources podcast by Survation found that 33% of Scots would back the SNP if last July’s election were re-run, while 24% would vote Labour.
The results represent an 11-point drop in Labour’s support since the General Election in Scotland, while the SNP have climbed three points.
Elsewhere, Reform UK polled at 15%, two points higher than the Scottish Conservatives on 13%. The LibDems polled at 9%, while 5% of voters said they would back “another party”.
🆕We have the first Scotland-wide poll of 2025🚨 On the podcast this week, we'll discuss voting intentions, approval ratings and the results of LOTS of interesting questions alongside Prof. Sir John Curtice. To get started, here are the General Election voting intentions... pic.twitter.com/QR6mk1Cksl
— Holyrood Sources (@HolyroodSources) January 14, 2025
The results closely mirror a poll run for The National in December, which found the SNP would win 34% of the vote, Labour 20%, the Tories at 14%, Reform UK on 15%, and the LibDems on 9%.
Elsewhere on Tuesday, a UK-wide YouGov poll of Westminster voting intention found that Labour and Reform UK – and around one-half of people who backed Keir Starmer’s party say they would not do so again.
The YouGov survey of 2279 UK adults, between January 12-13, found that just 54% of people who voted Labour in the General Election last July would not change their ballot.
Only 54% of 2024 Labour voters still say they would back the party, with their vote scattering in all directions The Tories have lost a further 15% of their vote to Reform UK since the election, while managing to claw back only 4% of Reform votershttps://t.co/vySsbvRb9C pic.twitter.com/C1601BwCvr
— YouGov (@YouGov) January 14, 2025
Those who would not back Labour for a second time are not coalescing around a second party however, with 5% turning to Reform, 4% the Tories, 7% the LibDems, 6% the Greens, and 17% saying they do not know who else they would support.
But the impact on the Labour vote has put them just one percentage point ahead of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in voting intention. Just 26% of people said they’d back Starmer’s party, while 25% said they’d back Reform.
The Tories, now led by Kemi Badenoch, are playing catch up on 22% of the vote, the YouGov survey found. They have lost 15% of their voters to Reform UK, the polling firm said.
The number of people who voted Labour in 2024 saying they would not do so again is also mirrored in the Scottish polling conducted for The National by Find Out Now in December.
The poll of 1774 Scots found that only 55% of those who voted Labour last July would do so again. In total, 12% said they’d back Reform instead, 9% said the Tories, 6% said the LibDems, and 10% said the SNP.
SNP Westminster depute leader Pete Wishart MP said that for the Labour Party in Scotland the poll “shows that their new slogan is spot on – they do indeed have a ‘new direction’ – it’s called plummeting in the polls under Anas Sarwar”.
He went on: “For senior figures in the Labour party their continued slump in the polls can hardly come as a surprise – Labour promised ‘change’ but the public are seeing that they have already lost control.
“With this week showing that the Chancellor is rapidly losing control over the public finances, Labour are now threatening a return to severe austerity cuts. Anas Sarwar's promise of ‘read my lips – no austerity under Labour’ looks set to be the latest Labour promise to be dumped.”
The Survation poll for True North Advisors and Holyrood Sources interviewed 825 Scots.
