Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I’m so ready for more high-stakes daytime baseball.
In today’s SI:AM:
⚾ MLB playoff picks
🏈 NFL power rankings
🏆 CFB September awards
Welcome to October
The MLB playoffs begin Tuesday with the opening games of all four wild-card series. Last year’s postseason, which featured the 84-win Arizona Diamondbacks in the World Series, proved that any team is capable of winning the pennant, no matter what their regular season record is. With that in mind, it’s worth knowing at least one thing about each team. Let’s go through them all really quickly.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Pitching is a question mark
For as good as the Dodgers have been this season (the best record in the majors at 98–64), they still have flaws. Their offense—led by Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts—is among the best in the league, ranking second with 5.2 runs scored per game. That strong offense has helped paper over a lot of issues with the pitching staff, which has not been as good as the team had hoped it would be before the season.
Tyler Glasnow’s season is over due to an elbow injury. Gavin Stone has a shoulder problem that will likely end his season. Clayton Kershaw is on the injured list with a bone spur in his toe. Bobby Miller was sent to the minors after 13 ineffective starts. James Paxton was below average in 18 starts and traded away at the deadline. Walker Buehler is healthy after missing all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he has a 5.38 ERA in 16 starts.
The Dodgers rank 16th in the majors with a 4.09 team ERA since Aug. 1—not good, but also not terrible. There is some good news, though. Yoshinobu Yamamoto returned on Sept. 10 after missing nearly three months with a triceps injury. Jack Flaherty has pitched well since being acquired in a deadline deal with the Detroit Tigers. Rookie Landon Knack has also been reliable, posting a 3.65 ERA in 15 appearances (12 starts). With pitching rotations shortened in the postseason, the Dodgers’ injury issues won’t be as acute. But their lack of pitching is still a concern.
Philadelphia Phillies: They’ve cooled off significantly
No one was hotter than the Phillies at the start of the season. Their 36–14 start was the best record in a team’s first 50 games since the 2001 Seattle Mariners, who went on to win 116 games. The Phillies didn’t win 116 games, though. They didn’t even win 100. They finished 95–67. They’re just 40–38 since the start of July.
The vibes are still good in Philadelphia, though. This is a fun team that feeds off a raucous home crowd and has reached the NLCS in each of the last two seasons—with teams that won fewer games than this one.
Milwaukee Brewers: Small ball is back
Tom Verducci wrote last month about how the Brewers are winning with an aggressive style of play that emphasizes hustle over power. They go all-out on the bases, play determined defense and have a stingy pitching staff. They ranked sixth in the majors this year with 4.8 runs scored per game, but were tied for 16th in home runs. In an era where home runs are as important as ever, the Brewers are finding other ways to put runs on the board—and that makes them a joy to watch.
San Diego Padres: Red hot since the break
The Padres made the NL West race a lot more interesting than it appeared it would be at the midpoint of the season. When the All-Star break began on July 15, San Diego was seven games behind Los Angeles in the division race with a record of 50–49. Since then, though, no team in baseball has been as hot as the Padres. They went 43–20 in the second half of the season—the most wins after the break of any team in the league. So often the key to postseason success is getting hot at the right time. And no one is playing better baseball right now than the Padres.
Atlanta Braves: Chris Sale’s injury looms large
The Braves had penciled in Chris Sale to be the starter in the second game of Monday’s decisive doubleheader against the New York Mets but he was a late scratch due to back spasms. Atlanta still won the game (with Grant Holmes starting) to qualify for the playoffs, but now will have to try to win a best-of-three series without its top pitcher. Braves manager Brian Snitker told reporters after Monday’s game that Sale likely wouldn’t be available to pitch against the Padres. That, combined with the fact that Atlanta had to play two games on Monday, puts the team in a tricky position as the wild-card series begins on Tuesday. Holmes, Spencer Schwellenbach and Charlie Morton are all unavailable after having started games in the past two days. Max Fried would be on regular rest for a start in Game 2 on Wednesday, and Reynaldo López would be on regular rest if there’s a Game 3 on Thursday. That means the Braves are likely going to have to call up a pitcher from the minors like Ian Anderson or Bryce Elder to start the opener. That’s not a position you want to be in when the series is so short.
New York Mets: Francisco Lindor is having a career year
The Mets can thank Francisco Lindor for their playoff berth—in more ways than one. In the most basic sense, it was Lindor’s ninth-inning home run that won the first game of Monday’s doubleheader and clinched a playoff spot for New York. But also, Lindor has been the driving force of the team’s success this year.
The Mets got off to a terrible start to the season, going 24–33 through the end of May. During that time, Lindor batted .229 with nine home runs and a .700 OPS. Since then, they’re 65–40 and Lindor has batted .300 with a .930 OPS and 24 homers. It’s been, by some measures, the best season of Lindor’s career. His 33 homers are tied for his second most in any season and his OPS+ is a career-best 138. Other players have chipped in to make this one of the best offenses in the league (seventh in the majors in runs per game), but Lindor is the star.
New York Yankees: Aaron Judge’s postseason redemption opportunity
Judge is the unquestioned best hitter in the game, but he hasn’t looked like it in the postseason. In the regular season, Judge’s career OPS is a gargantuan 1.010. In the postseason, it’s .772. The last time the Yankees made the playoffs, in 2022, he had just five hits in nine games (two home runs and three singles) and struck out 15 times (39.5% of his plate appearances). That was the same year Judge set the AL single-season home run record, but he was still booed at home.
The Yankees’ offense has been pretty lousy this season excluding Judge and Juan Soto, so if there’s any hope of New York making a deep run in October, Judge will have to turn his postseason fortunes around.
Cleveland Guardians: Emmanuel Clase is unhittable
Every playoff team wants a closer like Clase to shut down its opponents in the late innings. He led the American League this year with 47 saves after leading the majors in that category in each of the last two seasons. As good as those previous seasons were, though, he’s been even better this year. His ERA is a paltry 0.62. He has allowed just two earned runs since June 11. When he enters the game, it’s as good as over.
Houston Astros: Another team getting hot at the right time
Houston has advanced at least as far as the ALCS in a whopping seven straight postseasons, but at the midpoint of the season it looked like the Astros might not even make the playoffs. They’ve turned it around, though, going 38–27 after the break to overtake the Seattle Mariners and win the division for the fourth straight year. An improved pitching staff is a big reason why. The Astros lost several key pitchers to injury, including Cristian Javier and J.P. France, but the trade deadline acquisition of Yusei Kikuchi has been a big help. He has a 2.70 ERA in 10 starts for Houston. One concern, though, is the play of veteran Justin Verlander. He missed about two months of action with a neck injury and has struggled mightily since his return, posting an 8.10 ERA in 10 starts.
Baltimore Orioles: Bullpen is an issue
The bullpen was a strength for the Orioles last season, in large part due to the dominance of closer Félix Bautista. But with Bautista out rehabbing from Tommy John, Baltimore’s remaining relievers have struggled. Last year, the O’s ranked fifth in the majors in bullpen ERA. This year, they’re 23rd. The most glaring issue was closer Craig Kimbrel, who was released last week after having already been demoted from the closer’s role. That’ll lead to more save opportunities for Seranthony Domínguez.
Kansas City Royals: Way ahead of schedule
The Royals were among the worst teams in baseball last season, with a 56–106 record that was better only than the Oakland A’s. They had a few promising pieces, though—most notably shortstop Bobby Witt Jr.—and made a handful of smart free-agent additions that accelerated their competitive timeline. Now they’re in the playoffs for the first time since they won the World Series in 2015. Even if they bow out early this October, they appear poised to be relevant for years to come.
Detroit Tigers: A team on a miraculous run
A month ago, it seemed absurd to think that the Tigers would be in the postseason. Back on Aug. 30, when they were 68–68; Fangraphs gave them a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs. But Detroit went 18–8 after that to finish 86–76 and reach the postseason for the first time since 2014. The Tigers’ best player has been pitcher Tarik Skubal, who is the favorite to win the AL Cy Young after winning the AL pitching Triple Crown (most wins, lowest ERA and most strikeouts). He’ll get the ball in Game 1 against the Astros on Tuesday afternoon.
The best of Sports Illustrated
- Here are our experts’ picks for every MLB playoff series.
- Nick Selbe also power ranks every team in the postseason.
- Speaking of power rankings, Conor Orr has the Commanders in the NFL’s top five.
- MLB’s disgraced hit king Pete Rose died Monday. Tom Verducci’s obituary examines Charlie Hustle’s complicated life and legacy.
- We also republished a 2015 story from when Verducci rode with Rose from Las Vegas to Los Angeles.
- Pat Forde handed out some college football awards for the month of September.
- Bob Harig explains why the next U.S. Ryder Cup team will be heavily influenced by the squad that just won the Presidents Cup.
- MLB is making long-awaited changes to the uniforms for the All-Star Game.
The top five…
… things I saw yesterday:
This article was originally published on www.si.com as SI:AM | One Thing to Know About Each MLB 2024 Playoff Team.
