Republicans rode into the Senate majority in 2024 on the wallets of filthy-rich candidates, but they’ll be relying on a different breed of hopefuls to hold or expand their advantage in next year’s midterm elections.
Last cycle, the GOP wasn’t particularly shy about identifying wealthy candidates in key states in order to compete with the Democratic incumbents’ fundraising advantage. (It also helped that many of them had résumés outside politics that were attractive at a time when voters, in general, don’t trust politicians or government.)
That strategy was successful, but this cycle looks to be different.
In 2024, Tim Sheehy spent nearly $2.5 million of his own money to defeat Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in Montana. In Ohio, Bernie Moreno spent $4.5 million of his own fortune in his successful challenge to Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. Dave McCormick spent more than $7.5 million of his own funds in knocking off Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice also has a lot of assets, though he ultimately didn’t have to spend any personal money to flip Sen. Joe Manchin III’s open seat.
Those weren’t the only wealthy candidates on the GOP side last cycle. In Wisconsin, Eric Hovde spent $20 million of his own money but came up less than a point shy of defeating Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin.
The only two newly elected Republican senators who aren’t rich are Jim Banks of Indiana and John Curtis of Utah, both former congressmen who won in solidly Republican states without having to compete against serious Democratic candidates.
Michigan’s Mike Rogers stood out among the 2024 class, not just because he was one of the only Republicans in a competitive state to lose but also because he didn’t look like the rest of the wealthy candidates. The former congressman from Michigan had a more typical résumé, didn’t reflexively talk like a MAGA Republican and didn’t come with a large personal checkbook.
Last cycle, Rogers lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than half of a point in the open-seat race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, although he ran closer to Donald Trump than the winning GOP Senate challengers did in their states.
Rogers is back for another Senate run this cycle, announcing his campaign Monday to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. And this time, his profile as a GOP Senate candidate could be closer to the norm.
It’s possible that a wealthy, self-funding candidate could still enter the Michigan race (candidates like that have run before), but Rogers’ early endorsements from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott demonstrate the mindset of the Republican establishment this cycle.
At this early stage, it doesn’t look like Republicans have a stable of wealthy candidates poised to enter races. They are focused on supporting who they think will be the best general election candidate, regardless of bank account size.
In Georgia, Republicans are courting outgoing Gov. Brian Kemp to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Kemp would be a strong candidate as long as he continues to fuse the Trump-first and Trump-skeptical wings of the GOP. But he doesn’t have personal money to invest in the race like the successful 2024 candidates. If Kemp doesn’t run, a wealthy candidate could emerge, but there’s a host of GOP elected officials in Georgia who will also take a look at the race.
In New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is not running for reelection, there’s time for a wealthy Republican outsider to emerge as well. But the early talk has centered on former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown, who lost to Shaheen in 2014, now that former Gov. Chris Sununu has publicly ruled out the race. Sununu or Brown would be a departure from last cycle’s strategy.
Republicans aren’t done searching for a candidate in Minnesota, where Democratic-Farmer-Labor Sen. Tina Smith is also not seeking reelection. Initial candidates such as retired Navy SEAL and Marine Corps veteran Adam Schwarze or potential candidates like former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya don’t appear to be bringing millions of dollars in personal money to the campaign.
The good news for Republicans is that they already secured the majority in 2024 and don’t have to defeat well-financed Democratic incumbents to win in 2026. Ossoff is the lone vulnerable Democratic incumbent at this stage, with three Democratic open seats in battleground states.
It’s Senate Democrats who need a net gain of four seats for the majority, and the early map and math favor the GOP. After all, Republicans next year are defending just one state, Maine, where Kamala Harris finished ahead of Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Depending on the overall political climate next year, it’s possible Senate Republicans could expand their majority. But if that happens, it would be with a much different type of candidate than the class that won them control of the chamber in 2024.
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