Closing summary
Donald Trump appears to have been paying unusually close attention to the European Central Bank’s monetary policy: his first public action this morning was to use their example to attack US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates.
The end of Jerome Powell’s tenure as chair “cannot come fast enough”, Trump said. “Too Late should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now.”
Trump is perhaps not very likely to have listened to the ECB’s president, Christine Lagarde, explaining the reasons why it has – unlike the Fed – cut interest rates.
Lagarde said on Thursday that “the economic outlook is clouded by exceptional uncertainty” because of Trump’s tariffs, which constitute a negative demand shock.
Lagarde was speaking after cutting the ECB’s main deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% – the seventh reduction within the last year – partly in response to the tariff turmoil.
The ECB president underlined the uncertainty facing forecasters during Trump’s trade war. However, the head of the International Monetary Fund on Thursday said that it has so far predicted the world will avoid a Trump-induced recession, although it will still suffer much slower growth.
Kristalina Georgieva said economic “resilience is being tested again – by the reboot of the global trading system”.
Trade tensions are like a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over. To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.
You can continue to follow our live coverage from around the world:
In the US, an IRS decision on Harvard’s tax-exempt status is expected soon amid concern over Trump interference
In UK politics, Kemi Badenoch calls for broader review of equality and gender recognition laws
In our Europe coverage, Emmanuel Macron meets Marco Rubio and Steve Witkoff for talks on Ukraine
That’s all from the business live blog this week. Thanks for reading, and happy Easter. JJ
Updated
IMF: Trade tensions will lead to slower economic growth amid Trump tariffs
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that it expects much slower global growth – but not a recession – because of trade tensions amid Donald Trump’s tariff war.
Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, said that the latest world economic outlook forecasts will include “notable markdowns, but not recession”, in a speech in Washington before its annual meeting starting on Monday.
The forecasts will be closely scrutinised for judgments of Trump’s economic policy, after a fortnight of financial market chaos since his “liberation day” tariffs. Stock markets plunged after Trump raised tariffs on all goods imports, only to recover somewhat when he imposed a 90-day “pause” when turbulence spread to the bond market.
The deep uncertainty over Trump’s plans have made it difficult for economists. However, unlike European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde, who refused to say how tariffs would affect inflation, Georgieva said that the IMF has raised inflation forecasts for some countries.
Georgieva said economic “resilience is being tested again – by the reboot of the global trading system”.
Trade tensions are like a pot that was bubbling for a long time and is now boiling over. To a large extent, what we see is the result of an erosion of trust – trust in the international system, and trust between countries.
Across the Atlantic in Wall Street, it is a mixed bag in the early trades (despite Donald Trump’s grousing about the Federal Reserve not favouring him with interest rate cuts).
S&P 500 UP 20.18 POINTS, OR 0.38%, AT 5,295.88
DOW JONES DOWN 484.36 POINTS, OR 1.22%, AT 39,185.03
NASDAQ UP 88.96 POINTS, OR 0.55%, AT 16,396.12
The ECB is about to end the press conference … but Christine Lagarde breaks in to draw attention to something in the ECB’s statements.
It’s not quite an Easter egg, but the statement references three projects to try to revitalise the European economy. Lagarde suggests that the ECB is thinking about how it can use the present moment to improve the institutional functioning of Europe to help growth.
This is a moment for Europe to not only be solid on its monetary policy … but for Europeans all together to focus on what changes can take place.
And with that, the press conference ends.
Christine Lagarde says she cannot say if the world has reached peak uncertainty. She says:
We meet every six weeks. Think of the number of changes that have taken place in the last six weeks.
Asked about the exchange rate, she says the ECB is not targeting a particular exchange rate.
Christine Lagarde says the ECB will demonstrate “effectiveness and agility” in responding to monetary policy.
Asked about what she would say about Trump’s trade war, Lagarde says she will not characterise it. She says:
It will have downside consequences. The consequences will differ depending on which side of the world you stand.
‘Stablecoins’ are in a ‘very separate category’ to crypto, Christine Lagarde says, when asked about US efforts to promote them.
Stablecoins are like cryptocurrencies, but pegged to an existing asset, meaning they are usually much less volatile and risky.
The ECB has referred to the digital euro in its monetary policy statement for the first time, a statement of its intent to go forward with it, Lagarde says.
Christine Lagarde says: “I have a lot of respect for my esteemed colleague and friend, Jerome Powell.”
The relationship will continue in an “undeterred and unchanged manner”, she says, despite Donald Trump’s efforts to pressure Powell into cutting interest rates.
Christine Lagarde says Europe is facing tariffs that have risen from 3% to about 13% on goods exported to the US.
That is a “negative demand shock”. Some uncertainty will remain for several months, Lagarde says.
There will be a negative impact on growth, possibly.
A few months ago there were a number of governors who would have voted for a “skip” – not cutting interest rates at this meeting – and others who might have voted for 50 basis points, Christine Lagarde says.
But it was unanimous in favour of 25 basis points, she says.
Christine Lagarde says we should not read anything into the removal of a sentence about how restrictive policy is.
It’s somewhat technical, but essentially she says that judgment relies on working out the neutral interest rate, at which monetary policy is neither tight or loose. But working out the neutral rate does not work when the economy is hit by a shock. She says:
Anybody in this room who thinks we are in a shock-free world, would I suggest raise their hands or have their head examined.
It is more important than ever to be data-dependent during a period of uncertainty, she says.
Tariffs are a negative demand shock, but there are “diverging views” on how the tariffs will play out for inflation, Christine Lagarde says.
The net impact on inflation will become clearer over the course of time, she says – a fairly non-committal answer on a crucial judgment for the ECB.
The decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points) was “unanimous” – although the ECB’s governing council did consider other options, Lagarde says.
There was nobody arguing in favour of a bigger rate cut, Lagarde says.
Banks are becoming more concerned about the economic risks faced by their customers, Christine Lagarde says.
The ECB is determined to ensure that inflation falls “sustainably” to 2%, but it will remain “data-dependent”, Lagarde says. Now on to questions.
Christine Lagarde suggests that trade tensions could push inflation up or down.
Tariffs add to costs, but trade diversion could also drive down prices, she warns.
The major escalation in trade tensions may drag down growth, Lagarde says.
It may make firms less willing to invest and consume, she adds.
However, the increase in defence and infrastructure spending could add to growth.
Lagarde says most economic indicators are pointing to return of underlying inflation to the ECB’s 2% target.
Christine Lagarde says the economic outlook is clouded by “exceptional uncertainty”
Christine Lagarde says the economic outlook is clouded by “exceptional uncertainty”, citing “new barriers to trade” amid Donald Trump’s trade war.
Consumers may hold back spending as they become more cautious, she says.
The economy is likely to have grown in the first quarter of the year, and manufacturing showed signs of stabilisation.
European Cental Bank president Christine Lagarde has started a press conference in Frankfurt.
She begins by reading the ECB’s earlier statement. We’ll be updating on her comments here.
BP chair Helge Lund only received 75.7% of votes in favour of his reappointment, according to provisional results from the company’s disrupted annual meeting.
That is an unusually low tally, suggesting signficant investor unease.
The euro has moved marginally lower against the US dollar after the European Central Bank cut interest rates.
One euro will buy $1.1342, down from about $1.136 just before the announcement.
Lower interest rates tend to be less attractive for investors.
The ECB’s governing council, which sets interest rates, said that inflation is falling as expected.
The annual inflation rate in the eurozone slowed to 2.2% in March 2025 from 2.3% in February. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also fell to 2.4% in March, the lowest rate since October 2021. The ECB said:
The disinflation process is well on track. Inflation has continued to develop as staff expected, with both headline and core inflation declining in March.
ECB: Trade tensions risk slower growth
The European Central Bank has warned of slower growth because of trade tensions, after Donald Trump’s tariffs caused turmoil in the global economy.
In its statement announcing a seventh interest cut in a year, the ECB said:
The euro area economy has been building up some resilience against global shocks, but the outlook for growth has deteriorated owing to rising trade tensions. Increased uncertainty is likely to reduce confidence among households and firms, and the adverse and volatile market response to the trade tensions is likely to have a tightening impact on financing conditions. These factors may further weigh on the economic outlook for the euro area.
Updated
European Central Bank cuts main interest rate to 2.25%
The European Central Bank has cut interest rates for the seventh time in a year, as it hopes to support the already struggling European economy as the prospect of further damage from Donald Trump’s tariffs looms.
The ECB cut its main deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points from 2.5% to 2.25%, it said in an announcement on Thursday.
ECB president Christine Lagarde will hold a press conference to discuss the changes at 1:45pm BST.
Donald Trump’s attention this morning appeared to have been caught by the comparison with the European Central Bank (ECB).
The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates, with the announcement now only minutes away, at 1:15pm BST. Anything else would be a real shock.
Here is a bit more info on why Donald Trump is angry with Jerome Powell.
Powell offered “a concerned message” last night in a speech in Chicago, according to Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY Mellon, an investment bank. Powell said “that tariffs drive uncertainty on policy, increasing the risk of higher inflation and lower growth”.
Amanda Wilcox, an economist at UBS, another investment bank, summarised it for her clients:
Chair Powell clearly acknowledged the risks to the outlook from tariffs, noting that the “level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated.” In the prepared remarks, he continued, “The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”
“Our role is to make sure that this will be a one-time increase in prices and not something that turns into an ongoing inflation process,” he said.
Climate protesters are not the only BP shareholders disgruntled at the annual meeting today: its chair, Helge Lund, is expected to face a big vote against him, even after announcing he will resign.
The Guardian’s energy correspondent, Jillian Ambrose, has more:
BP is braced for an investor rebellion on Thursday as the oil company prepares to face its shareholders for the first time since abandoning its climate strategy.
Its chair, Helge Lund, is expected to be voted out of his job by disgruntled investors at the company’s annual general meeting, which is also likely to be marked by protest from climate campaigners and investors.
The shareholder meeting comes weeks after Lund, who presided over BP’s groundbreaking 2020 climate targets and the company’s subsequent retreat, promised to step down from the company by next year.
Despite his resignation, the chair will still face a shareholder vote on his role in which some of BP’s largest investors are expected to turn against him in protest over the company’s rapidly falling value in recent years.
You can read the full story here:
Climate protesters ejected from oil company BP's annual meeting
At least five protesters have been “forcibly” removed from BP’s annual shareholder meeting in Sunbury-on-Thames, according to a spokesperson for the campaign group Fossil Free London.
The spokesperson said:
It was quite violent. We were very forcibly removed, despite owning shares and having a legal right to be there.
Members of Fossil Free London, Energy Embargo for Palestine and the Free West Papua Campaign gathered outside BP’s London HQ in St James’s Square last night ahead of the AGM.
The protesters held banners reading “stop fuelling genocide and climate breakdown” and chanting “shut down BP”.
In addition to BP’s retreat from its green energy targets the oil company has come under fire for its supply of energy to Israel throughout the war in Gaza, which the campaigners believe has fuelled the military activity in the area.
Robin Wells, director of Fossil Free London, said:
BP’s corporate greed kills millions through the fuelling of a genocide and through the climate breakdown that continues at pace. The writing is on the wall. BP doubling down on oil and gas is just part of the standard functioning of Big Oil. This will never change. It’s clearer than ever that is no place for oily, greed-driven corporations in the world we need to build. Shut BP down.
Donald Trump says end of Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair 'cannot come fast enough'
Donald Trump is awake. And he has strongly criticised monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, saying the end of Jerome Powell’s tenure as chair “cannot come fast enough”.
In a post on Truth Social, the social network he owns, Trump said that Powell had been too slow to cut interest rates – contrasting its hesistance because of perceived inflationary pressures with the European Central Bank (ECB).
The ECB is due to cut interest rates for the seventh time this year in order to prop up economic growth.
Powell enraged Trump last night by warning that the White House’s massive tariffs could raise inflation. That would make the Fed even more hesitant to cut interest rates.
Trump said:
The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late should have lowered Interest Rates, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!
Updated
Nvidia boss Jensen Huang has reportedly met Chinese vice-premier He Lifeng as well as the founder of Chinese AI startup DeepSeek on his trip to Beijing.
Huang has discussed new chip designs with Chinese clients including DeepSeek, the Financial Times reported.
DeepSeek has taken on totemic importance in the perceived race between the US and China on artificial intelligence. The company, little known before this year, stunned investors after training an impressive large language model using much fewer resources than American rivals. It was dubbed a “Sputnik moment”, like when the Soviet Union put the first satellite in space, and caused market ructions only overshadowed a few weeks later by Donald Trump’s tariffs.
It will be fascinating to see what comes out of Huang’s visit – and whether it was done with the White House’s blessing or not.
The Financial Times reported Huang’s brief statements in China:
Huang said “China was a very important market for Nvidia” and expressed hope that his company could “continue co-operating” with the country, according to state broadcaster CCTV.
InPost buys Yodel in £106m delivery deal
The UK parcel delivery company Yodel has been snapped up by the Polish parcel locker firm InPost in a £106m deal that will create the third-largest independent delivery business serving online retailers in Britain.
The takeover will expand InPost’s footprint in the UK, taking its market share from 2% to 8%. It comes only months after the Polish operator completed a separate takeover of another UK logistics company – Menzies Distribution – in October last year.
InPost, which placed its first locker in Kraków in 2009, said the takeover would combine its drop-off and collection network with Yodel’s home delivery capabilities, “seamlessly integrating out-of-home and to-door solutions” under a single brand.
It estimates the takeover will result in the combined business delivering more than 300m parcels in the UK a year, serving more than 700 online retailers. The deal also means that the UK will now make up about 30% of the group’s revenue.
You can read the full story here:
Nvidia boss visits Beijing days after US limits AI chip exports
Nvidia boss Jensen Huang has travelled to China for talks despite limits on the chip company’s sales imposed by the White House under Donald Trump.
The visit of Huang, chief executive of one of the US’s most valuable companies, will be closely followed amid the vicious trade war between the US and China.
Trump has imposed tariffs of 145% on most Chinese exports, with China retaliating with tariffs of 125%.
However, Trump and his predecessor, Joe Biden, have also sought to limit exports of the most advanced semiconductor chips that can be used to train artificial intelligence models.
Nvidia had designed a chip, called the H20, to get around the US limits, but the company on Tuesday said it expects a $5.5bn (£4.1bn) hit after Trump’s administration said licences would be required for the H20 as well.
The company’s share price fell by 6.9% on Wednesday in response, although it is still valued at more than $2.5 trillion (£1.9bn).
Chinese state media said Huang’s visit to Beijing came at the invitation of China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), a group involved in promoting Chinese trade.
China Daily, an English-language newspaper owned by the Chinese state’s propaganda arm, published the photo, saying it came “three months after pledging to continue cooperation with #China during his last visit”. It added the hashtag #OpportunityChina, which it has previously used in posts promoting US-China exports.
#JensenHuang, founder and CEO of US semiconductor company #Nvidia, visited Beijing on Thursday at the invitation of China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), three months after pledging to continue cooperation with #China during his last visit.… pic.twitter.com/jdhFHbtHpl
— China Daily (@ChinaDaily) April 17, 2025
London reinsurer accused of failing to prevent bribery in Ecuador
The Serious Fraud Office has accused a UK insurance company of failing to prevent international bribery in relation to state officials allegedly paid off in Ecuador.
Representatives of United Insurance Brokers Limited (UIBL) have been ordered to appear before Westminster magistrates’ court on 7 May, the SFO said on Thursday.
The SFO alleged that US-based intermediaries carrying out UIBL’s business in Ecuador paid bribes in return for the awarding of re-insurance contracts worth $38m (£29m).
If it makes it to trial, it will be the first time that a “failure to prevent” case will be heard by a jury, the SFO said. The offence was introduced in 2010 to stop companies and executives from standing by when bribery was taking place.
UIBL is a reinsurer, meaning it essentially provides insurance for insurers, helping them to minimise the risk of big losses if they unexpectedly have to pay out large amounts.
The SFO said that UIBL sold reinsurance to Ecuadorian state insurers covering the publicly owned water and electricity companies. UIBL received a $6.2m commission , of which $3.2m was paid to intermediaries, the SFO alleged. Some of that money went to Ecuadorian officials in the form of bribes.
Nick Ephgrave, director of the Serious Fraud Office, said:
The SFO remains committed to stamping out international bribery wherever it may occur.
British companies have a duty to prevent the harm caused by bribery when doing business at home and abroad, to ensure that the UK remains a safe and fair place to do business.
Donald Trump said overnight that the US had made “big progress” in trade talks with Japan, after meeting representatives at the White House.
Posting to the social network he owns, Trump said:
A Great Honor to have just met with the Japanese Delegation on Trade. Big Progress!
He later posted a picture of himself smiling beside Japan’s representative, Ryosei Akazawa, described by Reuters as “a close confidant of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba who serves in the relatively junior cabinet position of economic revitalisation minister”.
The talks are part of Trump’s efforts to renegotiate the US’s trading relationships with almost every country in the world during his 90-day “pause” on tariffs that were imposed on the basis of US trade deficits – using a formula that the mainstream economists have derided as farcical.
Sainsbury’s is the FTSE 100’s lead performer this morning, with its share price up 3.9%.
That means that it has recovered all of the lost value last month when its share price plunged following Asda’s announcement that it intended to cut prices.
Sainsbury’s share price was last at £2.57, compared with under £2.55 before Asda’s comments. It fell as low as £2.23 during the Donald Trump-induced stock market turmoil.
Key Taiwanese chipmaker beats profit estimates despite Trump tariff uncertainty
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, one of the world’s key chipmakers, has warned that uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs are clouding its outlook, even as it beat profit forecasts.
The company, TSMC, said that it had seen strong demand for the most advanced chips it makes for other companies: those with transistors between 3 nanometres and 5 nanometres in size.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s net profit for January-March climbed to T$361.6bn (£8.4bn), its fourth straight quarter of double-digit growth, Reuters reported. That was ahead of a T$354.6bn estimate drawn from 18 analysts.
TSMC is the leading chip fab, or fabricator, producing semiconductor chips according to other companies’ designs. Its products are crucial to products ranging from Apple’s iPhones to chip designer to the racks of chips used to train artificial intelligence large language models.
The US has threatened steep 32% tariffs on Taiwanese exports, but backed down as part of Trump’s tariff “pause”. The US has also exempted semiconductors from some tariffs, but Trump could re-impose tariffs at any time.
Wendell Huang, TSMC’s chief financial officer, said:
Moving into second quarter 2025, we expect our business to be supported by strong demand for our industry-leading 3nm and 5nm technologies. While we have not seen any changes in our customers’ behaviour so far, uncertainties and risks from the potential impact from tariff policies exist. We will continue to closely monitor the potential impact on the end market demand, and manage our business prudently.
The FTSE 100 is the worst of the European stock market performers on this sunny Thursday morning in London: it is down 0.6% in the early trades.
Germany’s Dax index is up 0.3%, while France’s Cac 40 is down 0.4%.
Across the indices larger stocks are down, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.2%.
Sainsbury's says profits to be flat after breaking £1bn; Fed warns on inflation
Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of business, economics and financial markets.
Sainsbury’s has made underlying retail operating profits of more than £1bn for the first time, but the British supermarket chain suggested it will not beat that this year as it battles with rivals on price.
UK supermarkets are locked in a battle for market share, trying to entice shoppers with lower prices – or trying to defend their turf against cheaper rivals.
Tesco, Marks & Spencer and Sainsbury’s share prices slumped last month after Asda said it would cut prices. Price cuts look like they will continue to hit profits in the current year, with guidance kept at £1bn.
Sainsbury’s pre-tax profits rose 38.6% to £384m but underlying operating profit hit £1bn if one-off items, such as those related to the closure of cafes and hot food counters announced in January, were excluded, retail correspondent Sarah Butler reports.
Federal Reserve’s inflation warning
If it’s price cuts that are worrying British supermarket investors, price rises are the focus of the US Federal Reserve.
Jerome Powell, the Fed’s chair, said that Donald Trump’s tariffs were causing a “challenging scenario” for the central bank and were likely to increase inflation.
Chinese online retailers Shein and Temu last night gave a clear indication of how tariffs will increase inflation: they said that they will increase prices for US customers, although they did not say how much. Economists are expecting a big jump in the prices of the billions of dollars of goods imported from China in particular, after Trump raised tariffs on most products to 145%.
Powell’s comments caused US stock markets to drop last night, and the FTSE 100 has followed suit on Thursday morning, down 0.8% in the early trades.
And happy ECB day to those who celebrate! The European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates for the seventh time in a year later today in an effort to prop up the European economy, under pressure from the chaos across the Atlantic.
The agenda
1:15pm BST: European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision
1:30pm BST: US initial jobless claims (week ending 12 April; previous: 223,000; consensus: 225,000)
1:45pm BST: ECB press conference with Christine Lagarde
Updated
