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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
Guardian sport

Rugby World Cup 2023: Guardian writers’ predictions

What are you most looking forward to?

Robert Kitson Rugby union showing its best face to the world. For all its imperfections, it can still be the planet’s most compelling team ball game. If the three Fs – France, Fiji and Finn Russell – can rip it up this weekend, it could be the catalyst for something truly special.

Ugo Monye I feel as if rugby is a global village and to have the whole world of rugby and all its spectators descend upon France, whichever city you might be in, seeing players, families and fans altogether, massively excited for one of the most historic sporting tournaments – that gets me going.

Andy Bull Seeing how France stand up to the pressure of hosting the tournament, because if they can handle it they should win this and in the kind of style that reminds everyone why they fell in love with the game to begin with.

Nick Evans The chaos of the group stages. All the pools are stacked with tier-one nations and in each there are multiple teams who are very close in the world rankings. I predict that at least one major nation will not make it into the quarter-finals, maybe two.

Gerard Meagher The number of pool stage matches where it is impossible to pick a winner. The improvement of tier-two nations and the much-maligned lopsided draw make for more unpredictable matches before the knockout stages than at any tournament hitherto. And some people want to moan about the draw …

Luke McLaughlin A deep run by France at their own tournament, with all the energy, excitement and passion that brings. A home triumph may not quite hit the heights of the Zinedine Zidane-inspired 1998 football World Cup win but the captain, Antoine Dupont, already a superstar, would elevate himself to national hero status.

Michael Aylwin I don’t want to be too anodyne in this age of kneejerk hysteria, but actually just the rugby. Don’t believe anyone who tells you rugby was better in the old days. Go and watch a few old matches on YouTube for yourself (the full 80). Then watch today’s version. Particularly looking forward to the Pacific island teams

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, meets the France team in the buildup to the tournament.
The French president, Emmanuel Macron, meets the France team in the buildup to the tournament. Photograph: Reuters

What will be the key pool game?

RK South Africa v Ireland. If it feels ridiculous that two of the world’s top three sides are colliding so early, it guarantees some proper drama. The winners will be entitled to start believing that anything is possible. England v Argentina and Wales v Fiji will also be pivotal.

UM I’m going to go for two. France v New Zealand – a blockbuster on the opening weekend, as was the case four years ago with the All Blacks against South Africa. It could be a warm-up for a final. And South Africa v Ireland – the world champions against the world No 1.

AB You’d have to think South Africa are bound to take at least one of the two qualifying spots in Pool B, which means Ireland v Scotland in Paris on 7 October is shaping up to be the first game of the knockout rounds.

NE It will be in Pool B, including two of the teams ranked in the top five in the world. We know for sure one of them will be going home but do they all beat each other or do Tonga have a say in who reaches the last eight?

GM Scotland v South Africa. If Scotland are going to squeeze through their pool you suspect they will have to catch the Springboks cold in Marseille on Sunday, rather than overcome Ireland in a match they know they cannot afford to lose. Succeed and it blows a hole in one half of the tournament.

LM South Africa look increasingly likely to sweep all before them in Pool B, which should set up a pivotal Paris rendezvous between Andy Farrell’s team and Gregor Townsend’s. A firing Finn Russell can propel Scotland to a place in the last eight at the expense of the No 1-ranked Ireland.

MA There are two pool games from which the eventual winners are highly likely to emerge. No need even to identify them. Does that make them key? The opener should be good and might be the closer. But whoever loses the two key games will have ample opportunity to make the final. So maybe they are not key at all.

Finn Russell waves in a Scotland tracksuit
Finn Russell’s Scotland face crunch pool matches against South Africa and Ireland. Photograph: Malcolm Mackenzie/ProSports/Shutterstock

And what will the quarter-final match-ups be?

RK Australia v England, South Africa v New Zealand, Argentina v Fiji, France v Ireland.

UM New Zealand v Ireland, South Africa v France, Argentina v Fiji, England v Wales.

AB Australia v England, South Africa v New Zealand, Argentina v Fiji, France v Ireland.

NE New Zealand v Scotland, South Africa v France, Australia v Argentina, England v Wales.

GM France v Ireland, New Zealand v South Africa, Argentina v Australia, England v Fiji.

LM Australia v Japan, South Africa v New Zealand, Argentina v Georgia, France v Scotland

MA Australia v England, South Africa v New Zealand, Argentina v Fiji, France v Ireland

Who or what will shake up the tournament?

RK The Pacific island nations could make some seriously big waves. Imagine if both Fiji and Samoa qualify for the last eight? It has reached the point where it would be a minor surprise if one of them – probably Fiji – does not make the quarters.

UM Fiji. They are the best of the tier-two nations. First because they are seventh in the world and they can really shake up their pool. I don’t even think it would be considered a shock if they did.

AB Given the changes to the schedule so there are longer gaps between games and the new rules around repatriating players who have been capped elsewhere, the gaps between the tiers are smaller than ever. Expect at least one of Fiji or Samoa to make the quarters ahead of England or Wales.

NE The biggest unknown heading into this tournament is what the impact of the bunker review system will be. We’ve seen it play an influential role in the summer warm-up matches and I genuinely believe that a knockout fixture will be decided by a review and a card.

GM The warm-up matches brought home how much impact the bunker review system is going to have. The decision by World Rugby last year to extend the layoff period for concussions is likely to rule a significant amount of players out of matches and leave coaches with difficult decisions to make.

LM A callow Australia can capitalise on the “easy” side of the draw under Eddie Jones by winning Pool C and their quarter-final, before being knocked out in the last four. Meanwhile, almost everyone is talking about South Africa’s 20-year-old prodigy Canan Moodie, and he will justify the pre-tournament excitement.

MA Eben Etzebeth. Usually when people decide who the best player in the world is they go for someone brilliant who makes us feel better about life. But if the measure is which player’s team would you really, really want to be in, the answer would be Eben Etzebeth.

The Fiji team at Twickenham
Fiji finished their preparations for the World Cup with a win over England at Twickenham. Photograph: Action Foto Sport/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

Who will be the top try-scorer?

RK Will Jordan. The All Blacks will fancy scoring a shedload of tries against Namibia and Uruguay, even if they don’t win the tournament.

UM Will Jordan of New Zealand. I couldn’t believe he didn’t score against South Africa. I was stunned but he’s got an unbelievable scoring rate.

AB Damian Penaud, unless, that is, France seize up under the pressure of all that expectation.

NE Will Jordan from New Zealand.

GM Mark Telea. It will be the All Black winger who most fills his boots against Uruguay and Namibia. Let’s plump for Telea.

LM The ruthless Damian Penaud is at his peak and ready to capitalise when French improvisation punches holes in opposing defences.

MA Malcolm Marx. Or whoever finds themselves at the back of the Springboks’ rolling maul most often. Damien Penaud is also someone who deserves a mention, for rather different reasons.

Damian Penaud dives to score for France against Australia
French hopes may rest on the form of their winger, Damian Penaud. Photograph: Franck Fife/AFP/Getty Images

And, most important, who is going to win the World Cup (and who will they beat in the final)?

RK France. Rarely has a RWC host nation felt a greater sense of approaching destiny. I can see Les Bleus battling their way to a blockbuster final against the defending champions, South Africa. On a highly charged Saturday night in Paris, are the hosts really going to be beaten?

UM South Africa to beat New Zealand in the final. Their power game and their depth give them the edge. When you have a set piece that can function for the entirety of a match, it is a real point of difference.

AB France will finally win their first World Cup by doing what England couldn’t, beating South Africa in the final. They’ve been building towards this so well, for so long that it’s almost a question of faith, and why wouldn’t you choose to believe in a team who can play the way they do?

NE The final will be South Africa v All Blacks – my heart and soul say the All Blacks, but my head says South Africa.

GM New Zealand to beat Argentina in the final. The All Blacks were given the reminder they needed by South Africa at Twickenham and can play at a pace that very few can live with. Argentina, meanwhile, have slipped under the radar into France but are, by a distance, the most solid side in their half of the draw.

LM Heart says France, head says South Africa. The Springboks have long been my tip for a fourth trophy and their pre-tournament form has been ominous, but provided Les Bleus do not suffer any more key injuries, let’s go with the heart: Fabien Galthié’s impressive squad will get over the line.

MA South Africa. To beat Ireland in the final. These two are without doubt the teams that make their opponents weep the most. They can also play a bit if the situation demands. New Zealand and France are capable of shredding either, but it’s harder to play that kind of game reliably.

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