Closing post
Time to wrap up…
The sale of Royal Mail’s parent company to the Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský has been approved by the UK government after a review under national security laws.
The £3.6bn takeover of International Distribution Services (IDS) – the owner of the 508-year-old Royal Mail – by Křetínský’s EP Group was confirmed on Monday morning.
It will be the first time Royal Mail has been controlled by an overseas owner in its history, which can be traced as far back as 1516 under Henry VIII.
The government will retain a “golden share” in IDS, which means any changes to Royal Mail’s ownership, tax residency or headquarters will need its assent. The Royal Mail brand will also be protected for as long as EP owns the company.
EP has also reached agreement with the Royal Mail’s unions, having offered guarantees on job security, and the corporate governance of the company.
Britain’s private-sector firms are cutting jobs at the fastest pace since the Covid-19 pandemic, as they reacts to the tax rises in October’s budget.
Footfall at UK shops has slowed in the last fortnight, suggesting a poor Christmas in on the cards for shops.
But the picture is brighter in the US, where private sector growth is running at a 33-month high.
Canada’s finance minister Chrystia Freeland has resigned, in an apparent policy clash with prime minister Justin Trudeau over how to response to Donald Trump.
Shares in French broadcaster Canal+ have dropped by 20% after making its market debut in London this morning.
US private sector growth fastest since Covid-19 reopening
America’s economy is ending the year much stronger than the UK, it seems.
Data firm S&P Global reports that US private sector output growth is running at a 33-month high in December, amid a service sector surge.
Its Flash US PMI composite output index has jumped to 56.6 this month, up from November’s 54.9, which shows the fastest expansion since the reopening of the economy from COVID lockdowns in 2021.
The latest poll of purchasing managers also found that expectations of output in the coming year have hit a two-and-a-half year high, reflecting growing optimism about business conditions under the incoming Trump administration.
Employment also edged higher, up for the first time in five months, as firms expanded workforce numbers amid the brighter outlook.
Encouragingly for US central bankers, firms also reported that inflationary pressures cooled again this month, with the average prices charged for goods and services rising at the slowest rate since June 2020.
But while the service sector appears to be booming, manufacturers are report falling output and higher prices.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, explains:
The service sector expansion is helping drive overall growth in the economy to its fastest for nearly three years, consistent with GDP rising at an annualized rate of just over 3% in December.
It’s a different picture in manufacturing, however, where output is falling sharply and at an increased rate, in part due to weak export demand.
Encouragingly, confidence in the 12-month outlook has lifted to a two-and-a-half year high, suggesting the robust economic upturn will persist into the new year and could also become more broad-based by sector. However, some of the high spirits seen after the election in the manufacturing sector have been checked over concerns surrounding tariffs and the potential impact on inflation resulting from the higher cost of imported materials. December saw raw material prices spike sharply higher amid supplier-led price rises and higher shipping costs,
The US stock market has opened slightly higher, as investors await the final interest rate decision of the year on Wednesday.
The S&P 500 index of US stocks has risen by 0.2%, while the narrower Dow Jones Industrial Average is down less than 4 points, or 0.0088%, at 43,824 in early trading.
Tech stocks are picking up, lifting the Nasdaq Composite by 0.4% or 78 points to 20,005 points.
Canada's finance minister resigns after policy clash
There’s a shake-up in the Canadian government today, where finance minister Chrystia Freeland has resigned.
In a letter posted on X, Freeland reveals that prime minister Justin Trudeau had asked her to relinquish the post for another cabinet position.
Writing to Trudeau, she says the pair have been “at odds over the best path forward for Canada,” explaining:
“On Friday, you told me you no longer want me to serve as your Finance Minister and offered me another position in the Cabinet.
“Upon reflection, I have concluded that the only honest and viable path is for me to resign from the Cabinet.”
Freeland, a former Financial Times and Reuters journalist, goes on to argue that Canada must push back against “America First economic nationalism” being pushed by Donald Trump.
See my letter to the Prime Minister below // Veuillez trouver ma lettre au Premier ministre ci-dessous pic.twitter.com/NMMMcXUh7A
— Chrystia Freeland (@cafreeland) December 16, 2024
After a boom in November, conditions in the New York state private sector have cooled this month.
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released a few minute ago, shows that business activity held steady in New York State in December.
After rising sharply last month, the headline general business conditions index retreated thirty-one points to 0.2.
The New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s General Business Conditions index snapped back to a flat reading at 0.2 in December, down from 31.2 in November and below expectations of a decline to 6.4.#manufacturing #PMI pic.twitter.com/iX1w9MGxe4
— MTS Insights (@MTSInsights) December 16, 2024
The NY Fed reports:
New orders and shipments increased modestly. Delivery times shortened somewhat, and supply availability was little changed. Inventories increased at a substantial clip. Labor market indicators pointed to small decline in employment and a slightly shorter average workweek. Both input and selling price increases moderated. Firms remained optimistic about the six-month outlook, though somewhat less so than in November.
⚠️BREAKING:
— Investing.com (@Investingcom) December 16, 2024
*NY FED DECEMBER EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING INDEX PLUNGES TO +0.2; EST. +6.4; PREV. +31.2
🇺🇸🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/33eQcwvAQ9
PureTech publishes positive results from lung disease trial
The UK biotech PureTech Health has published positive clinical trial results for its lung fibrosis drug, sending its FTSE 250-listed shares up by more than 6%.
Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) affects more than 230,000 patients in the US and Europe, and there have been no new therapies approved in the past decade. IPF has a median survival time of two to five years. More deadly than many cancers, IPF is a progressive disease where over time, scar tissue spreads throughout the lungs and makes the absorption of oxygen increasingly hard.
Over a six-month intermediate (phase 2) trial, patients on PureTech’s drug deupirfenidone experienced a decline in lung function that was similar to what is expected in healthy older adults over the same time frame, suggesting that deupirfenidone has the potential to stabilise the lung function decline that is the hallmark of IPF, the company said. It added that no other study has shown this at six months. The drug was generally well tolerated.
While there are other treatments, antifibrotics, that are effective, their use is limited by tolerability concerns that contribute to nearly three quarters of people with IPF in the US foregoing treatment.
Chief executive Bharatt Chowrira said that if PureTech could repeat the results in a phase 3 trial, it would “represent a step change in the treatment of IPF”.
PureTech has replaced hydrogen atoms in the pirfenidone (one of the approved therapies for IPF - made by Roche) structure with three heavy hydrogen atoms. This changes how the drug is broken down in the body, and makes it easier to tolerate, it explained.
The Boston-based firm is known for its spinoff companies, including Karuna Therapeutics, which was bought by US drugmaker Bristol Myers Squibb a year ago, and Vedanta Biosciences. Deupirfenidone is PureTech’s only internal drug programme.
PureTech was co-founded by the American entrepreneur Daphne Zohar in 2005 and floated on the London stock exchange in June 2015. It is also listed on the Nasdaq. Zohar left in April to lead Seaport Therapeutics, another PureTech spinoff company.
The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has been commissioned for an Economic and Fiscal Forecast which will be published on 26 March 2025.
This is in line with the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011 which requires the OBR to produce two forecasts each financial year. This will be accompanied by a statement to Parliament from the Chancellor, the Treasury has announced.
They add:
The Chancellor remains committed to one major fiscal event a year to give families and businesses stability and certainty on upcoming tax and spending changes and, in turn, to support the government’s growth mission.
That suggests it will be more of a ‘spring statement’ than a full-blown budget (following the one at the end of October).
⚠️ UK TO PUBLISH LATEST OBR ECONOMIC AND FISCAL FORECASTS ON 26 MARCH - GOVT STATEMENT
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) December 16, 2024
**UK FINANCE MINISTER REMAINS COMMITTED TO ONE MAJOR FISCAL EVENT A YEAR
French broadcaster Canal+ is having a rather bruising start to life on the London stock markets.
Shares in Canal+ have fallen by over 20% since trading began. Having started trading at 290p at 8am, they’ve now fallen to 227p, a drop of 22%.
Today’s UK PMI report reinforces fears that growth risks are to the downside and inflation risks are to the upside as we head into 2025.
So warns Daniel Mahoney, UK economist at Handelsbanken, who says:
There now seems to be growing evidence that firms are responding to the increase in employer’s NI and other measures around employment with a reduction in hiring, and it is notable that this is something that we have been hearing anecdotally from a range of clients. Moreover, the PMI’s price pressure indicators appear to be indicating that inflation could be turning higher.
This backdrop leaves the [Bank of England’s] MPC with a difficult set of trade-offs, with the rate cutting cycle likely to continue at a very cautious pace. Our central view remains that rate cuts will only happen at a pace of just one 0.25pp reduction per quarter through 2025.
The drop in staffing levels at UK companies this month, and the fall in business optimism, suggest the Bank of England should cut interest rates at its meeting this week.
So argues Professor Costas Milas of the University of Liverpool, who tells us:
The latest surveys (you reported on today) suggest, or at least hint, that we are “sleepwalking” towards a recession. Whether this turns out to be true (or not), the BoE’s MPC has a unique opportunity to take action this week by cutting interest rates. Many worry that inflation will rise based on data to be released this week. Such a rise should only be temporary.
In new work of mine (co-authored with Dr Papapanagiotou) on the out-of-sample forecasting performance of UK inflation, we find that both Divisia M4 growth and global supply pressures forecast future inflation (up to four quarters ahead) better than almost every other variable you can think of. Divisia M4 growth is extremely weak (just above 0% and, indeed, at historical lows) whereas global supply pressures are also extremely weak.
A great chance for the MPC to surprise positively this week rather than waiting for February 2025 when, perhaps, it will have left it too late!
A cut on Thursday would indeed be a surprise, though. The money markets are indicating there’s an 84% chance of no change in UK interest rates this week.
UK retail footfall drops in blow to shops
UK retailers are facing the prospect of ‘bleak’ Christmas trading, after a drop in visits to the high street, retail parks and shopping centres in the last fortnight.
Footfall at retailers over the last two weeks has averaged -3.1% below the same weeks last year according to new data from Rendle Intelligence and Insights. That’s a blow, as Christmas trading in 2023 was not great either.
Diane Wehrle, CEO of Rendle Intelligence and Insights, explains:
The subsequent two weeks trading since Black Friday seems to have been lacklustre at best. Experience has shown that trading plateaus in the week or so following Black Friday, however, a week on week drop in footfall into stores of -9.1% followed by a rise of only +7.5% is exceptionally disappointing.
Particularly as it means that footfall over the last two weeks has averaged -3.1% below the same weeks last year, which was recognised as a pretty disastrous Christmas trading period. Moreover, footfall into stores last week dropped further behind 2023 than the week before (-3.3% last week vs -2.8%) the week before last.”.
But… with Christmas falling on a Wednesday there is a full week and then two additional days left to capture consumer spend.
Wehrle says:
“We might yet see a Super Saturday on 21st December!”
UK companies cut #jobs at the fastest rate in nearly 4 years in December amid slowing demand and rising employment costs. #UK Flash #PMI remains at 50.5 (Nov: 50.5).
— S&P Global PMI™ (@SPGlobalPMI) December 16, 2024
Find out more: https://t.co/uP2dtyRDcB #economy #services #manufacturing pic.twitter.com/lX54uY0cJs
Unite general secretary Sharon Graham is also backing the Royal Mail agreement…
“This agreement opens the door to a better future for Royal Mail and its workforce.
It is now vital that EP and the government continue to work closely with Unite CMA and the CWU to ensure that Royal Mail delivers positive outcomes for its staff and its customers.”
Today’s PMI report suggests the UK economy could contract by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2024, suggests Elias Hilmer, assistant economist at Capital Economics.
Hilmer adds:
That said, we doubt the economy will be quite as weak as that given the PMIs do not capture rises in government spending.
Updated
Daniel Křetínský says his EP Group is “very pleased” to have reached an agreement with the Business Secretary to allow its takeover of Royal Mail.
Křetínský promises to be a good custodian of the postal operator, saying:
We would like to thank the Business Secretary for the constructive negotiations that have resulted in unprecedented commitments and undertakings that demonstrate the high regard EP Group has for Royal Mail as an institution, the service it provides to millions of UK homes and businesses, and Royal Mail employees.
EP Group is a long term and committed investor with a mission to make Royal Mail a successful modern postal operator with high quality service and products for its customers. We look forward to delivering on this mission alongside our partners in government.
UK taking 'golden share' in Royal Mail to smooth takeover
Back to the Royal Mail takeover, where the government has just confirmed it has reaches agreement with Royal Mail’s prospective new owners, and approved EP Group’s takeover.
Business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds says it shows the government is working hand in hand with private sector to improve crucial public services.
Under the deal, the UK has negotiated a ‘Golden Share’ in Royal Mail. This should prevent the headquarters of Royal Mail, or its tax base, being moved abroad without UK government approval.
Reynolds said:
For too many years progress on securing a stable future at Royal Mail has stalled, but from day one we have been committed to providing a secure future for thousands of workers and customers.
Today’s agreement is yet another example of this Government’s commitment to working hand in hand with business to generate reform give respite to people right across the UK, as we are working towards ensuring a financially stable Royal Mail with protected links between communities other providers can’t reach.
I’d like to thank EP Group and Daniel Křetínský for their constructive approach to our discussions and their commitment to protecting this national icon. I look forward to working with them to fix the foundations and ensure Royal Mail continues to deliver for the communities and businesses who rely on it most.
Updated
UK firms cut staffing by most in almost four years
Newsflash: UK companies are cutting jobs at the fastest rate since early in the Covid-19 pandemic, a new survey of British purchasing managers shows.
S&P Global’s latest flash PMI report, just released, shows that staffing numbers are falling in December, for the third month in a row, as firms react to October’s tax-raising budget.
The rate of job shedding across the private sector economy was the fastest for almost four years, led by services companies.
Firms are choosing not to replace voluntary leavers due to rising employment costs, the report says, such as forthcoming increases in employers’ National Insurance contributions and the minimum wage.
The increase in employers’ NICs rates is also leading to cutbacks to working hours and longer-term efforts to restructure workforces, S&P Global says
The PMI report shows that there was marginal growth across the private sector this month; its Composite Output Index was unchanged at 50.5, just over the 50-point mark showing stagnation.
But while the services sector grew, there was another contraction in manufacturing.
Worryingly, business optimism fell to the lowest level since December 2022, largely due to an ongoing slide in service sector confidence.
Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence says:
“Businesses are reporting a triple whammy of gloomy news as 2024 comes to a close, with economic growth stalled, employment slumping and inflation back on the rise.
“Economic growth momentum has been lost since the robust expansion seen earlier in the year, as businesses and households have responded negatively to the new Labour government’s downbeat rhetoric and policies. Business confidence has sunk to a two-year low as companies weigh up a tougher outlook for sales alongside rising costs, notably for staff as a result of changes announced in the Budget. The survey’s price gauges are indicating that inflation is turning higher again.
“Firms are responding to the increase in National Insurance contributions and new regulations around staffing with a marked pull-back in hiring, causing employment to fall in December at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis in 2009 if the pandemic is excluded.
“While the December PMI is indicative of the economy more or less stalled in the fourth quarter, the loss of confidence and increased culling of jobs hints at worse to come as we head into the new year. Policymakers at the Bank of England may be cautious about cutting interest rates, however, given the resurgence of inflation being signalled, adding further to downturn risks in 2025.”
French government bonds weaken after surprise Moody's downgrade
Back in the financial markets, France’s risk premium has risen this morning after a surprise credit rating downgrade.
Ratings agency Moody’s surprised Paris on Friday night by lowering its rating on French debt to “Aa3” (its forth-highest rating) from “Aa2”.
Moody’s took the unscheduled move following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s government this month, after MPs refused to accept €60bn of tax hikes and spending cuts in his proposed budget.
Moody’s says:
“Looking ahead, there is now very low probability that the next government will sustainably reduce the size of fiscal deficits beyond next year.
“As a result, we forecast that France’s public finances will be materially weaker over the next three years compared to our October 2024 baseline scenario.”
French bonds are a little weaker this morning, pushing up the yield (or interest rate) on its 10-year debt by around 2 basis points, to 3.05%.
German 10-year bunds are little changed, at a yield of 2.25%, so the gap between Paris and Berlin’s borrowing costs has widened.
Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, says:
The move by Moody’s brings it in line with Fitch and S&P, but it highlights the focus on French budget deficits and the risks they pose to bond market stability. French bond yields are a touch higher on Monday, but are generally stable.
This comes after bonds sold off in Europe and in the US last week. The French 10-year bond yield rose 16bps last week, the UK yield rose by 18bps, and the 10-year Treasury yield also rose by 18bps. If we see continued upward pressure on yields, then bond market risk could be front and centre after the New Year.
Full story: Gambling giant deliberately hid identities of high risk customers, financial crime watchdog alleges
Australia’s financial intelligence agency has taken gambling giant Entain to the federal court, alleging it “deliberately obscured the identities” of high risk customers and failed to stop a “serious risk of criminal exploitation”, my colleague Henry Belot explains.
The Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre’s (Austrac) civil penalty proceedings allege that Entain, which runs the Ladbrokes and Neds betting brands, committed “serious and systemic non-compliance with Australia’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing laws”.
Entain’s shares are now down 5%, extending their earlier losses.
Updated
Unions announce 'groundbreaking' agreement over Royal Mail
The UK’s Communication Workers Union says it has reached a “groundbreaking agreement in principle” with EP Group over its takeover of Royal Mail.
Communication Workers Union general secretary Dave Ward says:
“At the same time as this agreement is announced, we are pleased to have reached a negotiators settlement with EP Group covering crucial areas such as job security, the governance of the company, a meaningful stake in the business for employees, restoring quality of service, legally binding commitments and improving the terms and conditions of our members.
“This agreement provides the foundation to rebuild Royal Mail.
“These have been challenging negotiations but through the support of our members we have delivered what by any measure is a groundbreaking agreement which puts postal workers and customers back at heart of everything we do in Royal Mail.
EP Group has told the City that it has reached an agreement in principle with the CWU, which represents frontline workers in Royal Mail, and one with CMA Unite, which represents Royal Mail’s managerial workforce, to help clear its takeover offer – alongside the agreement with the government just announced.
Ward adds that the CWU will always campaign for Royal Mail to be returned to public ownership, but took the decision to protect its members once it was clear the government would support the takeover by Daniel Křetínský.
Ward adds:
“The other major factor here is whilst many will fear Royal Mail falling into the hands of a foreign equity investor, the truth is that the status quo is what will kill off postal services in the UK.
“The Royal Mail Group Board have been running the company into the ground over a sustained period and in the process have completely alienated their own workforce. It is time for a fresh start and a complete re-set of employee and industrial relations.
“If the takeover is completed, we will make sure every aspect of our agreement with EP Group is upheld in full.”
Updated
IDS chair: this is an important milestone in Royal Mail takeover
Keith Williams, non-executive chair of Royal Mail’s parent company IDS, says today’s announcement of an agreement between EP Group and the government is “an important milestone in the approvals process” for the takeover of Royal Mail.
Williams explains:
The IDS Board welcomes the Government’s endorsement and legal backing for the comprehensive package of undertakings and commitments we negotiated. These provide our customers, colleagues, unions, regulators and broader stakeholders with safeguards for the provision of the Universal Service Obligation, the ongoing financial stability of Royal Mail, the maintenance of colleague benefits, and Royal Mail’s broader role in the United Kingdom.
“We welcome the Government’s commitment today to secure a stable future for Royal Mail. This will not come from a change in ownership alone but must also be backed by urgent reform of the Universal Service and the continued transformation of this great British business.”
Updated
Newsflash: Křetínský enters legally binding agreement with government over Royal Mail takeover
Newsflash: Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský’s EP Group has announced it has reached agreement with the UK goverment, and UK unions, over its proposed takeover of Royal Mail.
As flagged earlier, this appears to clear the way for Křetínský to take control of the postal operator.
In a statement to the City, EP Group says it has entered into “legally binding undertakings”, having worked closely with the Secretary of State for the Department for Business and Trade.
These new undertakings include ensuring that Royal Mail continues as the Universal Service Provider in the UK, until there is a further change of control in Royal Mail.
There is also a five-year pledge not to transfer any surplus from Royal Mail’s pension fund, and also to keep IDS and Royal Mail’s headquarters in the UK.
Updated
Over in Vilnius, the president of the European Central Bank has hinted that further interest rate cuts are likely in 2025.
Christine Lagarde says the ECB will cut interest rates further if inflation continues to ease towards its 2% target.
On a trip to mark the 10th anniversary of Lithuania adopting the euro, Lagarde said:
“If the incoming data continue to confirm our baseline, the direction of travel is clear and we expect to lower interest rates further”.
Last week the ECB cut interest rates for the fourth time this year:
Entain hit with money-laundering lawsuit in Australia
Gambling firm Entain has been hit by a money-laundering lawsuit in Australia.
Australia’s financial crime watchdog has alleged that Entain – which operates a string of betting companies including Ladbrokes – has breached Australian anti-money laundering (AML) and counter-terrorism financing (CTF) laws by its online betting platforms.
AUSTRAC CEO Brendan Thomas said the agency considers there were systemic failures in Entain’s approach to its AML/CTF obligations, saying:
“AUSTRAC’s proceedings allege that Entain did not develop and maintain a compliant anti-money laundering program and failed to identify and assess the risks it faced. We are alleging this left the company at serious risk of criminal exploitation.
“Money laundering is often a symptom of serious criminal activity, including fraud, scams and corruption, all of which have equally serious effects on our communities.
Entain says it has co-operated fully with AUSTRAC throughout its investigation.
The company’s CEO, Gavin Isaacs, told shareholders this morning that Entain takes the allegations “extremely seriously”.
Isaacs said:
We have co-operated fully with AUSTRAC throughout its investigation and we are implementing further enhancements to Entain Australia’s AML and CTF compliance arrangements. Whilst we still have some further improvements to make, we expect these to be implemented in line with the plan we communicated to AUSTRAC in 2023.
We are committed to keeping financial crime out of gambling and continue to play our part in supporting a well-regulated and compliant sector for our customers, stakeholders and the wider community.”
Shares in Entain have fallen around 3%, making it the top faller on the FTSE 100 share index.
Updated
Canal+ makes London stock market debut
Although the London stock market may soon lose Royal Mail, it has gained a new member this morning.
Canal+, the international pay-TV company and owner of the studio behind the Paddington film franchise, has floated in the City this morning.
Canal+ is being spun out of French media conglomerate Vivendi.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has hailed the floatation as a “vote of confidence” in the UK’s capital markets.
Maxime Saada, chair of Canal+, told Radio 4’s Today Programme that the company wanted to reach global investors, as two-thirds of its 27m subscribers are outside France.
Saada says:
It was very important for us to appeal to international investors, and London has a strong base of international investors investorss and a very strong global reputation.
But despite that, the London Stock Exchange is on course for its worst year for departures since the financial crisis.
New figures show that 88 companies have delisted or transferred their primary listing from London’s main market this year with only 18 taking their place, according to the London Stock Exchange Group.
Bitcoin surges above $106,000 on strategic reserve hopes
Bitcoin has soared to new alltime highs in the early hours of this morning, as the crypto rally gathers pace.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency is up around 4% since Friday night, hitting $106,533, and extending its rise over the $100k mark.
⚠️BREAKING:
— Investing.com (@Investingcom) December 16, 2024
*BITCOIN EXTENDS GAINS TO SET AN ALL-TIME HIGH ABOVE $106,000$BTC #BITCOIN pic.twitter.com/zNqBthUQu8
These latest gains came as traders bet that Donald Trump’s new administration will bring in a friendlier regulatory environment for crypto, and could even create a new ‘bitcoin strategic reserve’, similar to its gold reserves.
Last week, Trump pledged to “do something great with crypto”, to avoid other countries getting ahead of the US on the issue.
Analyst Naeem Aslam of Zaye Capital Markets says:
There is no shortage of good news in the crypto world, and it seems that bitcoin traders are going to continue to get more presents from Santa in terms of higher highs for the bitcoin price.
There was a time when 100K was a real profit-taking target for most traders and investors, but with new momentum, many traders think and believe that they need to adjust their expectations, and the new realistic target for them is bitcoin’s price hitting the level of 150K at minimum and with 200K a real potential by the end of this next year at this time. This means that traders are going to hold their horses and wait patiently while celebrating every single victory as the bitcoin price makes new highs.
Average UK house asking price drops by £6,000 this month
Christmas is coming, which means the UK housing market is cooling.
With winter setting in, a potential house buyer’s fancy is lightly turning to more pressing concerns than a move – such as present-buying, food options, and juggling visiting the in-laws.
And this means that asking prices set by new sellers coming to market have dropped by £6,395, or 1.7%, this month to £360,197, new data from Rightmove shows, as sellers’ pricing power diminished in the face of advent.
But Boxing Day could bring a bounce – last year, on 26th December there was a record number of new sellers launching to the market for that time of year.
Rightmove reports that the number of sales being agreed is up by 22% compared with this time last year, while the number of new buyers contacting estate agents about homes for sale is up by 13%.
Rightmove’s Tim Bannister says:
“New sellers in December have to work particularly hard to capture the attention of Xmas-party and festivity-distracted buyers, and the 1.7% average monthly fall is a fitting gift for those who are still buying homes rather than presents.
Despite this monthly drop, prices have risen by 1.4% compared with this time in 2023, broadly in line with our prediction of a 1% rise in prices this year.
We are now looking ahead to the traditional Rightmove Boxing Day bounce in home-mover activity, which has increasingly become a key date in the housing market calendar.
The online estate agent is forecasting a 4% rise in 2025 as falling interest rates stimulate the market.
Sellers hope pre-Christmas discount sales may attract buyers who are otherwise shopping elsewhere for others. New seller asking prices dropped 1.7% (-£6,395) in December 2024 to £360,197.
— Emma Fildes (@emmafildes) December 16, 2024
As the New Year beckons so the door to making the stamp duty threshold begins to close; as… pic.twitter.com/DIUnAqjZZ4
Updated
Introduction: Royal Mail takeover by Czech billionaire 'approved'
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.
The “Czech Sphinx” has reportedly triumphed in his bid to take control of Royal Mail.
The British government has approved Czech billionaire Daniel Křetínský’s £3.57bn takeover of Royal Mail’s owner International Distribution Services, according to reports this morning.
This green light should pave the way for the formerly state-owned postal service provider to pass into foreign ownership for the first time in its history.
The BBC is reporting that the sale has been approved, and that the takeover will be announced on Monday morning.
The post is in the Czech https://t.co/rOEvi5UjEl foreign billionaire to buy Royal Mail. Daniel Kretinsky told BBC he intends to invest heavily in the roll out of delivery lockers to make online deliveries more efficient & will keep one price letter delivery 6 days a week for now pic.twitter.com/kqDKBL7Odi
— Paul Lewis (@paullewismoney) December 16, 2024
As part of the final deal, the UK government will retain a so-called “golden share” in the postal service giving it special rights over the governance of the company, the Financial Times reports.
Once the deal goes through, Royal Mail would leave the stock market, 11 years after being floated by David Cameron’s coalition goverment at a value of £3.3bn.
IDS accepted the terms and conditions of the bid, from Křetínský’s EP Group, in May. That offer was worth 360p per share, for the 73% of Royal Mail that he didn’t already own.
Křetínský has made various commitments, including to keep the Universal Service Obligation (USO) under whch letters are delivered six days per week, not to raid its pension surplus, and to keep Royal Mail headquartered and tax resident in the United Kingdom.
Officials had been reviewing whether the deal poses a risk to national security interests, including looking at Křetínský’s links to Russia.
Royal Mail failed to deliver about a quarter of first-class post on time in recent months, marking a worsening in its recent delivery performance, when it is already under investigation for missing delivery targets.
The agenda
8.15am GMT: European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde gives a speech to mark the 10th anniversary of the introduction of the euro in Lithuania
9am GMT: Eurozone flash PMI survey for December
9.30am GMT: UK flash PMI survey for December
1.30pm GMT: NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
2.45pm GMT: US flash PMI survey for December
