Forecasters are predicting that the upcoming hurricane season could be one of the most severe on record due to warming ocean temperatures and the presence of La Niña. The season is expected to be highly active, with multiple sources forecasting a significantly above-average number of storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its most active preseason forecast ever, anticipating up to 25 named storms, well above the average of 14. Of these storms, as many as 13 could develop into hurricanes, far surpassing the typical count of seven.
The high confidence in the forecast, with an 85% likelihood of an above-normal season, is attributed to the influence of La Niña, a cooling ocean circulation pattern in the Pacific. This circulation can impact the jet stream and wind shear, conditions that can either hinder or facilitate hurricane development. Reduced wind shear allows for more storms to form, while warm ocean temperatures provide the necessary fuel for hurricanes to intensify.
Climate change is exacerbating these factors, with warmer oceans fueling stronger storms and higher storm surges. The trend of rising sea levels further amplifies the impact of hurricanes, leading to more extensive damage and increased insurance costs for affected areas. Since 1980, the United States has experienced a growing number of billion-dollar storms, with the reach of these costly events extending farther inland due to heavier rainfall and elevated storm surges.
