Already so late into the season, several teams don’t have much to look forward to outside of the 2023 NBA Draft.
But this upcoming class has one particularly impressive prized possession: Victor Wembanyama. His blend of height and wingspan is something we have never seen before from someone with his skill level in professional basketball.
The only question: Where will he play next season? We won’t officially know for several months, but we can take some well-informed guesses!
For this research, we looked at data from ESPN’s NBA Basketball Power Index and the projected draft order from Basketball-Reference. We included their rest-of-season forecast as well as additional win-loss projections from FiveThirtyEight.
Remember: Even though one team may have the strongest likelihood to have the worst record in the NBA, the lottery process flattens those odds to avoid tanking.
Traded picks and pick swaps also were included in all calculations.
For example, ESPN’s BPI projects the Utah Jazz have a 2.7 percent chance to land the No. 1 overall pick. But because they are also owed an unprotected first-rounder from the Timberwolves (who have a 0.9 percent chance), that increases their chances to 3.6 percent.
Based on these projection models, here is how it may shake out.
1
Detroit Pistons (14.0 percent)
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 14.0 percent
Basketball-Reference: 14.0 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 17.1
Basketball-Reference: 18.2
FiveThirtyEight: 18
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +600
Projections in February: +600
2
Houston Rockets (14.0 percent)
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 14.0 percent
Basketball-Reference: 14.0 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 19.8
Basketball-Reference: 19.9
FiveThirtyEight: 20
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +600
Projections in February: +600
3
San Antonio Spurs (14.0 percent)
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 14.0 percent
Basketball-Reference: 14.0 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 20.1
Basketball-Reference: 20.5
FiveThirtyEight: 21
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +600
Projections in February: +600
4
Charlotte Hornets (12.8 percent)
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 13.0 percent
Basketball-Reference: 12.5 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 27.3
Basketball-Reference: 27.9
FiveThirtyEight: 28
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +700
Projections in February: +700
5
Portland Trail Blazers (9.4 percent)
Portland’s pick is owed to Chicago if it does not fall 1-14.
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 10.1 percent
Basketball-Reference: 8.7 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 33.8
Basketball-Reference: 35.0
FiveThirtyEight: 34
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +1000
Projections in February: +3000
6
Orlando Magic (9.2 percent)
Orlando also lands Chicago’s pick as long as it does not fall 1-4.
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 9.0 percent
Basketball-Reference: 9.3 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 34.5
Basketball-Reference: 34.5
FiveThirtyEight: 34
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +1000
Projections in February: +1000
7
Indiana Pacers (8.2 percent)
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 8.2 percent
Basketball-Reference: 8.2 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 35.2
Basketball-Reference: 35.4
FiveThirtyEight: 35
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +1100
Projections in February: +1100
8
Washington Wizards (5.9 percent)
Washington’s pick is owed to New York if it does not fall 1-14.
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 6.0 percent
Basketball-Reference: 5.8 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 36.8
Basketball-Reference: 37.1
FiveThirtyEight: 37
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +1600
Projections in February: +4000
9
Utah Jazz (4.9 percent)
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 5.4 percent (0.2 percent via Timberwolves)
Basketball-Reference: 4.4 percent (0.2 percent via Timberwolves)
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 37.4
Basketball-Reference: 38.3
FiveThirtyEight: 37
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +1900
Projections in February: +3000
10
New Orleans Pelicans (2.2 percent)
New Orleans gets the better pick between their own and the Lakers.
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 2.3 percent (1.0 percent from Lakers)
Basketball-Reference: 2.1 percent (1.3 percent via LAL)
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 40.6
Basketball-Reference: 41.0
FiveThirtyEight: 41
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +4400
Projections in February: +2400
11
Oklahoma City Thunder (1.8 percent)
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 2.1 percent
Basketball-Reference: 1.5 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 39.9
Basketball-Reference: 40.3
FiveThirtyEight: 40
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +5500
Projections in February: +3000
12
Dallas Mavericks (1.5 percent)
The Mavericks owe their pick to Knicks if it falls 1-10.
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 1.3 percent
Basketball-Reference: 1.6 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 40.5
Basketball-Reference: 40.1
FiveThirtyEight: 40
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +6600
Projections in February: +33000
13
Chicago Bulls (1.4 percent)
Chicago’s pick is owed to Orlando if it does not fall 1-4.
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 1.3 percent
Basketball-Reference: 1.5 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 40.3
Basketball-Reference: 39.9
FiveThirtyEight: 40
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +7000
Projections in February: +3200
14
Atlanta Hawks (1.1 percent)
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 1.2 percent
Basketball-Reference: 1.0 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 40.7
Basketball-Reference: 40.7
FiveThirtyEight: 41
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +9000
Projections in February: +5300
15
Toronto Raptors (0.8 percent)
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 0.8 percent
Basketball-Reference: 0.8 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 41.0
Basketball-Reference: 40.8
FiveThirtyEight: 41
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +12400
Projections in February: +9900
16
Miami Heat (0.2 percent)
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 0.2 percent
Basketball-Reference: 0.2 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 43.0
Basketball-Reference: 42.9
FiveThirtyEight: 43
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +50000
Projections in February: +66000
17
L.A. Clippers (0.2 percent)
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 0.1 percent
Basketball-Reference: 0.2 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 43.0
Basketball-Reference: 42.7
FiveThirtyEight: 43
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +50000
Projections in February: +25000
18
Golden State Warriors (0.1 percent)
LIKELIHOOD
ESPN: 0.1 percent
Basketball-Reference: 0.1 percent
WIN PROJECTIONS
ESPN: 43.0
Basketball-Reference: 42.7
FiveThirtyEight: 43
PREDICTED ODDS
Current Projections: +100000
Projections in February: +28000
