Donald Trump, who has campaigned on strong anti-immigration rhetoric and America First policies, made historic inroads with almost all demographics on Election Day. His appeal, particularly to Latinos— who have been among his primary targets for almost a decade— did not come as a surprise to pundits, who had been sounding alarms at this potential rightward shift.
One expert that saw the trend coming from a mile away is columnist for the Los Angeles Times, Gustavo Arellano, who six years ago extensively talked about a Latino archetype he called the "rancho libertarian."
"Proud of their family's rural immigrant roots but fully of this country. Working class at heart, middle class in income," Arellano said of the rancho liberation. "Skeptical of big government and woke politics yet committed to bettering their communities. Believers in the American Dream they had seen their parents achieve— and afraid it was slipping away."
— Col. Gustavo Arellano (@GustavoArellano) November 7, 2024
Arellano explains that the archetype he explained only six years ago were mostly Mexican Americans, but overtime, it has evolved to include other Latinos, like Salvadorans, Guatemalans, Peruvians and Colombians.
For the columnist, the rancho libertarians were not originally Trump fans, since he only won 28% of the Latino vote in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. However, there was always the very likely possibility for this niche group to start cozying up to the businessman. And in 2024, it finally happened, as Latino men in 10 states— including Arizona, Florida and Texas, which are Latino hubs— showed Trump capturing 55% of the Latino male vote, the first time the demographic has sided with a Republican in a presidential election, according to an exit poll by NBC News.
Who is to blame?
So how did this come about? There are several possible explanations, but Arellano says the main culprit is the Democratic Party itself.
One of the primary factors that contributed to this shift, Arellano argues, lies in the fact that the Democratic Party took the Latino vote for granted for decades and has alienated them repeatedly during the Trump era.
Democrats have focused the majority of the past decade on pushing immigration reform and ethnic solidarity as key plans in their Latino platform. However, polls have shown time and time again that what this demographic cares about the most are economic issues and they have become increasingly hawkish on the border now that their families have established themselves in the U.S.
Democrats have also pushed for the term "Latinx," an ungendered progressive term that straight Latino men have come to despise. A recently released study from Harvard and Georgetown University found that politicians who use the term turn off Latino voters instead of attracting them. Likewise, Democratic Rep. and Senate candidate Ruben Gallego has banned the term from his official communications, citing it is an attempt "to appease white rich progressives who think that is the term we use. It is a vicious circle of confirmation bias."
As social media is flooded with finger-pointing Trump's victory to Latino men, Arellano suggests it is time for Democrats to analyze their shortcomings. While he didn't provide possible solutions to their problems, the columnists suggests that demonizing Latinos for their choices will only harden their views, and eventually, continue drawing other electorates in, such as white women, Arab Americans and first-time voters, all of which also saw increased support for Trump this year.
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