President Vladimir Putin said this week that he reserves the right to supply long-range weapons to Russian allies for possible use against Western strategic interests – a response to Ukraine getting the green light to use NATO-supplied weapons for limited attacks inside Russia. But some military experts say Putin’s latest threat might be limited on the ground.
As US President Joe Biden arrived in France for a four-day visit aimed at commemorating 80 years since D-Day and deepening transatlantic ties, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a new threat.
At an economic summit in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, Putin warned that Russia could provide long-range weapons to countries that might use them to strike Western strategic facilities.
Putin presented his latest threat as a response to NATO members – notably the United States and Germany – reversing course to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons for limited strikes inside Russia.
“If they think it’s possible to deliver such weapons to a combat zone to launch strikes on our territory and create problems for us, why don’t we have the right to supply weapons of the same type to some regions of the world, where they can be used to launch strikes on their sensitive facilities?” Putin asked.
As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed France's National Assembly on Friday after taking part in marking D-Day, Russia escalated its warnings that the West was playing with fire with its support to Kyiv.
A Russian foreign ministry spokesperson said Friday that US-supplied HIMARS (rocket launchers) had “murdered” a woman and child in Russia’s southern Belgorod region. It was the first time that Moscow has held the United States responsible for Russian civilian deaths.
The Kremlin also accused French President Emmanuel Macron of “inflaming tensions” following his promise to transfer French Mirage 2000-5s fighter jets to Ukraine.
"Macron demonstrates absolute support for the Kyiv regime and declares readiness for France's direct participation in the military conflict," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. "We consider these statements to be very, very provocative, inflaming tensions on the continent and not conducive to anything positive."
Vague threats
Putin’s warning about arming enemies of the West came as Moscow tries to project its naval power around the world, according to US officials.
Moscow is planning naval drills in the Caribbean this summer, according to media reports, citing US officials. The exercises will likely include port calls in Cuba and Venezuela, two Latin American countries that have unequivocally supported Moscow's war in Ukraine.
"Russia wants to scare the West with weapons proliferation and seems to be trying to expand the confrontation region with the West," said Jeff Hawn, a Russia specialist at the London School of Economics.
But Putin’s rhetoric “remains very vague”, with no details of the arms deployment provided, noted Joseph Moses, military strategy expert at the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) Verona.
The aim remains “to scare Western leaders and to provide ammunition to people sympathetic with Putin’s worldview, and to those who want a quick peace in Ukraine whatever the cost", explained Hawn. Putin remains deliberately vague in the hope of swaying public opinion in the West, allowing listeners to interpret his threats according to their own fears.
Extending Russia’s foothold in Africa
But some experts note that Russia’s choice of friendly countries willing to sign up for this latest plan is limited.
Putin's threats “could mean expanding its military equipment signature in Belarus”, said Moses. “The other path of least resistance are the African countries, where we are seeing a pivot away from Europe and America."
There are increasing signs of Russia seeking closer military cooperation with several African nations. Moses noted that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s whirlwind tour of sub-Saharan Africa this week included visits to Burkina Faso and Chad for the first time.
"In terms of providing military and kinetic aid to other countries, my assessment is that we can expect an intensifying of Russia’s foothold in central Africa," said Moses. Russia and the Democratic Republic of Congo signed a military cooperation agreement in March in Moscow’s bid to rebrand the Wagner Group’s operations in Africa.
While this part of Africa is not home to many strategic Western sites, the influx of new Russian weapons could be an additional destabilising factor in the region.
The ‘dominant power’ in the Americas
Sub-Saharan Africa may not be the only destination for Russian weapons targeting Western interests. "The most likely candidates are Iran and North Korea. Russia is already kind of doing it anyway, but no one wants to see these countries with even more weapons to threaten the West,” said Veronika Poniscjakova, a specialist in international security issues and the Ukraine war at the University of Portsmouth.
On the other hand, Russia’s ability to deliver more weapons with impunity to its Latin American allies are limited. These countries would also have to agree to strike at Western strategic interests, which is far from certain.
Venezuela and Cuba “recognise that the US is “by far the dominant power in the region” of Latin America, Hawn said.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko represents a textbook case of an “ally” unwilling to venture too far down the path of war against the West, he noted. “In Belarus, Lukashenko is trying hard to not go to deep into the war even though he is claiming that he is a hundred percent on Putin's side.”
In addition, Russia can ill afford to flood the world with weapons in an attempt to export its war in Ukraine.
“They can, of course, send military advisers and – more importantly – battlefield data on the performance of drones and weapons platforms, and how they have fared against Western systems. This intelligence is very important,” said Moses. “Since Russia has a high rate of production [for] cruise missiles, it is possible that they could [export them] – as well as drones ranging from large platforms to smaller, copter hand-held drones. It could also provide these countries with 'dumber' options like artillery shells, which Russia has in large quantities."
But given Russia’s weapons needs in Ukraine, Poniscjakova said Moscow is very unlikely to send any of its “good” weapons to other countries.
Hawn added that Western strategic sites are also “well protected against even the most modern weapons”.
‘A bear that cannot bite’
While Putin clearly felt compelled to react to the US and Germany agreeing to let Ukraine use Western missiles to strike targets on Russian territory, Moscow’s threats of retaliation are “essentially meaningless”, said Poniscjakova.
"At this point, it’s just complaining. It's like a bear that cannot bite."
The upcoming naval exercises in the Caribbean are a classic example of this “Made in Moscow” communications war.
“It would be very surprising, given the state of the Russian fleet, if there were more than three or four ships sent to the Caribbean,” said Hawn. "Most of the bluewater (open sea) hulls were built during the Cold War and are in bad shape. They can try to project power in the Caribbean, but I would be very surprised if they send more than three or four ships."
Russian naval exercises in the Caribbean are also not unprecedented, Poniscjakova noted. Moscow participated in naval drills in the region in 2008 which were followed by naval training exercises with Iran and China in the Gulf of Oman.
These high-seas sorties, according to Poniscjakova, are simply opportunities for Moscow “to try and convince its allies that, despite two years of war in Ukraine, Russia is still capable of projecting its military power anywhere in the world”.
(This article is a translation of the original in French.)
