QUEBEC'S independence movement has struggled for voters' attention for almost three decades – but fresh faces and an energised youth may be about to turn the tables.
In recent months, the pro-independence Parti Quebecois (PQ) has surged in the polls – though it currently holds four of 125 seats in Quebec's legislature, projections have it becoming the largest party at the next election in 2026.
Meanwhile, independence support has risen since the 1995 referendum, with most recent polls suggesting around 40% of Quebecois people support secession, 50% support remaining a part of Canada, and 10% don't know.
Pascal Paradis, a former human rights lawyer and politician for the PQ, is a sign of his party's changing fortunes.
He stunned provincial politics almost exactly a year ago when he flipped the constituency of Jean-Talon for the PQ in a by-election, where voters have rejected pro-independence parties since its creation in 1966.
Paradis told The National that his party's rising popularity was linked to three main factors, with the first related to the current party of the province's government, the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which seeks greater autonomy from Canada.
He said: "Our prime minister was an independentist. He was a former minister in a PQ government, but now he's founded this party [the CAQ] that would make big gains with a new vision.
"They made a big list of all the gains we will make, these are all the powers we will get back. And you know what? After six years, they have zero, not one, zero, nothing.
"This government is making proof, showing evidence that it is impossible to reform federalism in way that is satisfactory to Quebec."
Another factor is the PQ leadership of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who oftens features in TikTok videos and aims to reach out to Quebec's younger generations.
"The fact that Paul has taken leadership of the PQ contributed a lot," Paradis said.
"He made it clear that he was an independentist, and that the PQ would argue strongly, frankly, openly and seriously about independence and about making our social democracy strong and generous."
And, finally, Paradis pointed to the PQ offering an alternative to Canada that addresses many problems Quebecois voters identify with.
"More and more people in Quebec realise that Canada is going elsewhere, and we are more and more a minority in Canada," he said.
"Canada is growing its debt. It has a vision, a very distinct vision about our future as a nation. The federal government has announced that we are to be the first post-national country by 2100.
"People realise that there risks in maintaining Quebec as just a minority province in Canada. We can aspire to something different."
Professor Andrew McDougall, who researches Quebecois sovereignty at the University of Toronto, Scarborough, said that despite the surge in the PQ's polling figures, support for another referendum is not a certainty.
He told The National that when the party started their current rise in the polls, many commentators wondered if secession was back on the table.
McDougall continued: "At the moment, I think the general consensus is that just because the PQ may be rising in the polls, that doesn't necessarily mean that that's going to translate into a rise in support for sovereignty."
He also said that the runup to a hypothetical referendum – which would be Quebec's third, after polls in 1980 and 1995 – would be important for individuals deciding how to vote, as happened in Scotland.
"Once a referendum is called, it can be very unpredictable. You're not really sure what's going to happen. It's not just what happened in Scotland in 2014.
"The classic example of this was what happened in Quebec in 1995, when the referendum was called.
"The federalists basically thought that it was already in the bag for them. They thought this wasn't going to be particularly difficult to win.
"Everybody was shocked by how fast public opinion seemed to shift on that one, and it was a very, very near miss [for the federalist side]. These things have historically shown the potential to turn on a dime."
Many people have drawn links between the Scottish and Quebecois independence movements, with a range of similarities and differences identified.
One thing that both have is a long institutional history – both started to draw significant political support for their causes over 50 years ago.
Paradis, when asked to identify what the Scottish independence movement could learn from Quebec, pointed to one thing: looking at the long term.
"One always has to take a look at things on a historic basis, because sometimes we're just looking at the situation nowadays.
"There are going to be changes in support and polling and energy [over time].
"Just coming back to our experience, just two years ago, our party leader was questioned on a daily basis about being the newly elected leader of a party that will die, and asked about how long it will survive.
"See where we are right now."
