Each year, one of my favorite fantasy football experiences is a big draft I do in my community with friends and neighbors. I share a team and, thus, share responsibility for the final drafted product. After evaluating our roster last year, my good friend had this succinct (and accurate) takeaway: We had a lot of busts. The question was: Why?
The answer? Obsessions are momentary but feel like certainty. Last year, I would have told you that the outside-zone scheme was finally going to topple and destroy the NFL. I bet big on Travis Etienne, Javonte Williams and AJ Dillon. Last year, because free-agency pickups cost $5 a move, it cost us a small fortune just to stay in the race.
I bring that up because when picking all 272 games in an entire NFL season, I, too, am just taking a snapshot of my momentary obsessions. I did this exercise in time for it to be printed in our football preview issue of the magazine, which means this was the result of early-summer intel. Since then, I have been a bit kinder to the Chargers (which I think could win the AFC West), the Jets (which I think could have the No. 1 defense in the league) and the Steelers (which I think may be better than the Ravens). That said, this is still a pretty representative summation of how I feel the league stacks up right now.
Photo Illustration by Ed Truscio
We’ll start in the AFC East, where I may lose you very quickly as I double down on an unpopular prediction I made in May. However, I urge you to hang around. This is a vision different from some of the chalkier, trend-heavy projections I’ve seen this time of year, which may just give it some staying power. Last year, I was a little too high on the Ravens and Colts. I was way, way too high on the Broncos and not nearly high enough on the Seahawks.
Have I learned anything? Or will we look back with a year of hindsight and see lots of busts?
AFC EAST
New England Patriots: 10–7
We lead off with what will undoubtedly be the most controversial prediction of this exercise. I’m fully prepared to spend my winter months being highlighted by Freezing Cold Takes. But I do wonder whether, upon the return of Bill O’Brien, the Patriots will assume that same kind of automatic competency that defined the majority of the Bill Belichick era. We forget that said competency extended to stints with Matt Cassel, Jacoby Brissett and Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. Why could it not extend to Mac Jones, who is entering a season that should bring with it a higher level of maturity and understanding? This is possible because—and this shouldn’t be controversial—Belichick is still talented at what he does. Having O’Brien back will take the stresses of offensive game planning off his plate. New England’s schedule is difficult, but features a handful of pockets where this team could pick up some steam.
Buffalo Bills: 9–8
Part II of the aspect of this project most of you will hate: The Bills will miss the playoffs if everything lines up as I’ve imagined it. I have them completing an inspiring, end-of-season comeback to no avail. While this sounds absurd and ridiculous now, it’s not impossible. This is a veteran team, one of the oldest rosters at the start of the season. To some degree there is a little bit of preseason discontent, and their pass rush is dependent on a 34-year-old coming off a torn ACL (Von Miller). The Bills have made the playoffs in four straight seasons and five out of the last six. It’s not absurd to suggest that, outside of the possibility that they just momentarily regress, that the other three teams in the division, which have been stacking their rosters specifically to slow down the Josh Allen machine, might begin to have some measure of success. The Bills’ schedule is stacked in a way that doesn’t allow for many consistent runs, and their end-of-season winning streak is miraculous considering the depth and quality of their opponents.
Miami Dolphins: 8–9
I think any time you are a speed-dependent roster, even if you clearly have an advantage over similar teams, you are at the whims of not only common soft tissue injuries but the rigors of a regular season. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and the rest of the Dolphins have the best corps of skill-position players in the AFC. They are naturally injury-prone. Their quarterback has proven to struggle with the compounding of hard hits over the course of a season. If I were to have some sort of notarized guarantee that they would all play 17 games, I could easily pencil them in for first place. Alas, that’s something I can’t seem to find. Plus, starting the season with back-to-back road trips to the Chargers and Patriots is tough and ending the season with the Jets, Ravens and Bills feels like a potential knockout blow.
New York Jets: 8–9
I think that 8–9 is just about the basement for this team. In the range of possible outcomes, being only one win better than they were the season before Aaron Rodgers came to town would amount to my “worst-case scenario.” I don’t think it’s possible under Robert Saleh to have an LOL Jets kind of season, but I do think New York is vulnerable at critical positions, and it is mounting its battle plans on the back of a 39-year-old quarterback who, yes, is exceptional and absurdly talented, but is realistically human like the rest of us. All of that said, do I feel extremely uncomfortable about this pick, in particular, after seeing that Jets defense in the preseason? You bet. This team could realistically win this division by a country mile. My hesitancy with this team is a combination of life in the spotlight, coupled with a season-opening slate that sees it take on the Bills, Cowboys, Chiefs and Patriots before a bit of a soft landing.
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals (13–4)
The Bengals, as of now, are my pick to be Super Bowl champions. I think 13 wins, even in this division, is reasonable assuming that Joe Burrow’s calf strain isn’t a more significant injury than we’ve been led to believe. Everything about this team, aside from its running back and tight end depth charts, has at least one player who blows me away, and a staggering amount of depth. This, as we’ll see with the 49ers, my eventual NFC champion, seems to be the key for postseason runs. It’s not about avoiding injuries to nonquarterbacks; it’s about replacing those injured players with people who could be just as good. Cincinnati has a road-heavy start and finish to the season, which means that a bulk of its work will need to be done in October, November and early December, hopefully when Burrow is feeling closer to 100%.
Baltimore Ravens (11–6)
I think it’s always a good sign at this time in the offseason when a quarterback is talking about how regularly his own ideas are streamlined into the offense. No one sees a football field like Lamar Jackson, which means that no coordinator is going to see a field like Jackson, either. Having Todd Monken blending what Jackson likes from his own private study should be a lift to an offense that, to me, felt as if it had gotten a little bit repetitive and self-handcuffing at times last year. The Ravens really hammered the middle rounds of the draft on defense and should start to see liftoff on some of their other highly drafted projects from the past. Baltimore’s schedule also flows nicely, with no real pockets of danger.
Pittsburgh Steelers (9–8)
Anyone else peep Kenny Pickett’s preseason opener against the Buccaneers? Not bad, right? As is often the case, we see some of the most significant and noticeable growth from a quarterback between seasons one and two. If the full power of that receiving room is realized and Pickett becomes, say, a Derek Carr–level passer in terms of production, what do we make of a team that will be great defensively if healthy? I could easily see the rationale behind swapping Pittsburgh and Baltimore here. The Steelers start the season with a doozy of an opener against the 49ers, but could be getting my projected NFC champions at the right time. From there, the Browns, Raiders, Texans swing should prop Pittsburgh up on steady footing.
Cleveland Browns (8–9)
Like the Jets, I feel like the Browns could also finish in last place or win their division by a mile. Deshaun Watson looked good in his preseason debut despite a weather delay, and, as I surmised in my 100 preseason bold predictions, his mobility is going to be a major part of Cleveland’s offense this year. That is a pendulum that can swing both ways, of course. Cleveland was built for one offense but may be leaning in a different direction. Can it ably blend a back like Nick Chubb with a more zone-read-style attack piloted by Watson?
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans (10–7)
While I hate being contrarian for the sake of it, I do realize this is the second AFC division in which I’m going against a clear and trendy preseason favorite. Maybe that’s a good thing. Maybe it’s plain stupidity. Still, I have to believe that if Mike Vrabel thinks he can be competitive, he’s going to be competitive. I also think that if there’s a team that can play the Jaguars tough twice a year and keep the ball out of Trevor Lawrence’s hands, it’s going to be the Titans. Tennessee’s schedule is pretty evenly spaced, with a sort of “every other game sucks” kind of feel, which leads me to believe that, if the Titans can win the games they’re supposed to, they can survive the difficult stretches.
Jacksonville Jaguars (10–7)
Jaguars fans, don’t shoot. I had the teams finish with identical records so as to avoid offending the Mike Vrabel hive or the Trevor Lawrence hive. Unfortunately, ace editor Mitch Goldich actually went through all of the tiebreaker processes, which exposes my biases just a little bit. I think the Jaguars are going to be really good, and possibly amazing if we see the same second-year lift out of their young defensive players such as Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd that we saw out of Lawrence. Jacksonville seemed to overload Walker at times last year. He took on myriad responsibilities but, with more time in the same system, could be able to more fluidly and instinctively bounce between his coverage, contain and rush responsibilities.
Indianapolis Colts (8–9)
Yes, but a good 8–9. A fun 8–9. I had a great time watching Anthony Richardson in the preseason because I could imagine what the defense would be like if there was an actual threat he’d leave the pocket. Richardson has wisely kept the lid on his mobility and is instead just firing off complete Rookie of the Year–style fastballs, even without getting his feet set. I have no doubt that, by Year 3, this kid is going to be a superstar should he stay on the same professional ascension plan. There are plenty of winnable games on this schedule, and more than a handful of possible Richardson-led upset games.
Houston Texans (5–12)
If I were to do this exercise again, I would probably take the Texans down to three or maybe four wins. I am … not confident in the Texans this year, even though Houston does seem to have cultivated some young talent on that roster. C.J. Stroud will very much be a rookie quarterback and will require some time and space to work out his place in the NFL. Good for the Cardinals, I suppose, who will reap the benefits of a hungry Texans team.
AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs (11–6)
This pick is easy until it’s not. While I do think the Chiefs are flirting with a very delicate locker-room hierarchy by leaving one of their best players, Chris Jones, unextended, Patrick Mahomes is rounding into the Tom Brady of his era and should have the mantle if he so chooses. Kansas City has done a great job of cycling out its core as it ages and becomes less effective. I do think this is a year when we’ll see the fruits of some earlier draft picks such as Skyy Moore, for example. Its schedule is difficult but allows for some respite, with both Raiders games on the back end, which should help separate each week being appointment television—the blessing and curse of having the game’s best player.
Los Angeles Chargers (10–7)
You can read a little more about why I like the Chargers here. After picking them to win the division last year in a bit of an overzealous move, I have settled comfortably into the idea that they can be a consistent Dick Beardsley–like companion just off the Chiefs’ shoulder. Even though the central part of the Chargers’ schedule is difficult, getting both Broncos games and a Raiders game in the final weeks should provide a bit of a respite. They also have enough winnable games at the beginning of the year to get them off the ground and flying. Of course, so much of this is health dependent.
Las Vegas Raiders (7–10)
The Raiders, I think, will be O.K. They won’t be disastrously bad so long as Jimmy Garoppolo can sustain a whole season in an offense he’s familiar with. The question will be how some of their more consistent maladies are solved in real time. The Raiders’ personnel on defense didn’t allow for much success either as a pass- or run-defending team. Asking Garoppolo to keep up without the 49ers’ scheme and personnel at his disposal is a little unfair.
Denver Broncos (6–11)
Denver didn’t look great this preseason, and I think Sean Payton always assumed this team would struggle. It is the only reason I think a calculated person might get out ahead of a bad campaign and blame the entire thing preemptively on someone who isn’t there. The Broncos are thin at all weapon spots, thin at pass rusher and, I think, still lacking in up-front run support. If not for its fantastic secondary, I’d worry more about how Denver will keep pace in the division.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys (11–6)
I think the Cowboys’ offense might become a little more compact this season, but maybe that’s all right with Dak Prescott. Prescott can play quickly and efficiently, and perhaps his 2022 spate of turnovers was a malady stemming from attempting to do too much. This team can control the clock. It may throw more high-percentage routes. My concern for the Cowboys is that their schedule allows few respites, save for the Week 11 and 12 swing where they take on both the Commanders and Panthers. But even then, what will Bryce Young look like with a handful of starts under his belt?
Philadelphia Eagles (10–7)
Some of this is based on the unscientific truism that it’s hard to make it back to the Super Bowl, or even be really successful after you lose one the year before. The Eagles now have Jalen Hurts on a (somewhat) big-money deal. They are facing the very outer reaches of Jason Kelce’s tenure melding the offensive line together. They are potentially both too old and too inexperienced. What helps Philly is a schedule that should allow it to get off the ground without much difficulty. In fact, I don’t see a team that is markedly better than they are (on paper) until the Chiefs roll into town the week of Thanksgiving. However, the question is whether they can maintain their edge in the weeks leading up to that.
New York Giants (9–8)
A Giants fan might look at last year’s 9-7-1 mark and think I’m suggesting this isn’t an improvement. I disagree. Even their easiest game of the season, against the Cardinals, is on the road on short rest following a big-time Monday Night Football game. I think this is why, more than anything, New York opted to beef up its roster but in a measured way. Darren Waller doesn’t constitute an “all-in” approach, but his presence does help them stand up against an onslaught of competition.
Washington Commanders (6–11)
A lot of seemingly opposing views can be true at once. The Commanders, for example, could be a well-coached team moving in a forward direction but have a worse season statistically. We simply don’t know how a Sam Howell–quarterbacked team will survive a competitive division. I also feel like it’s never great to have your two easiest games, the Broncos and Cardinals, frontloaded at the beginning of the schedule. It’s all downhill from there.
NFC NORTH
Editors’ note, Aug. 24 at 9:55 a.m. ET: This graphic has been updated to correct errors in the Lions’ and Bears’ schedules.
Detroit Lions (11–6)
Here’s where I’ll jump in the stream of the “trendy” teams. Could the Lions realize their potential, or will they end up in the bin alongside a handful of other clubs we perpetually thought were going to turn the corner but never did? (Looking at you, Chargers since 2018.) After a bit of a gantlet (Chiefs, Seahawks) to open the season, the Lions’ schedule settles in and includes a long stretch of games against teams vulnerable to the run. This is where they could rack up some Ws.
Green Bay Packers (10–7)
If I had to do this exercise over again, I would probably have the Packers win the division. Jordan Love looks really good. Their defense can’t be worse than it was a year ago, and, I have it on good authority, will be far tighter in coverage this year after a bit of a mess in the secondary. Given their season-opening slate of Bears, Falcons and Saints, starting the year 3–0 doesn’t just seem like a pipe dream; it feels like a smart bet.
Chicago Bears (7–10)
Out of all the teams in the NFC North, I think the Bears’ schedule falls the nicest. We’ll see how they end up handling those good fortunes. But having the Commanders, Broncos, Buccaneers and Raiders all within the first seven weeks of the season has its advantages. Seven wins for a club that earned the No. 1 pick a year ago would represent massive progress, and, likely, substantiate Chicago’s commitment to Justin Fields long term.
Minnesota Vikings (7–10)
O.K. Perhaps we’re being a little harsh here. Also, the Vikings’ schedule is generous. Still, I feel like this is not a team that markedly improved despite having more than a few fortunate breaks a season ago. With the Kirk Cousins era potentially winding down, this feels more like a transition year than a building year in Minnesota. Week 2 at Philadelphia will be a nice test to see where they are early in the season.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons (8–9)
I am all aboard the Falcons train, and having them win the division at 8–9 hedges my bets. I feel like the NFC South is going to be a bit of a pileup this year as everyone is breaking in a new full-time starting quarterback. This obviously provides the Saints a bit of an advantage, but the Falcons have some big midseason stretches, like their games in October, where they can notch enough wins to help them pull away. This would be a boon for Arthur Smith in his third season, helping him realize what the Falcons saw in him a few years back. Despite starting Desmond Ridder, this is as blank a slate for an offensive-minded coach to work with.
New Orleans Saints (7–10)
Most of New Orleans’s first five games feel perilous. Traveling to Carolina and New England may look like easy games to tick off in the win column, but this is a very veteran unit. A lot of the Saints’ early opponents are younger, faster and match up well with what the Saints do best defensively. I think if they are able to capably adopt a Jon Gruden–lite offense, Derek Carr can spread the ball around to his talented wide receiver corps, but their offseason behavior, like kicking the tires on Jimmy Graham again, suggest they are still hungry for playmakers. Carr had Davante Adams a year ago and the Raiders still struggled mightily.
Carolina Panthers (7–10)
This would cap a great first season for the Panthers with Bryce Young. The team will have to balance keeping him healthy with an expedited plan to compete in the vulnerable NFC South. Road games against the Falcons and Seahawks within the first three weeks will test the quickness with which Ejiro Evero can beef up his defense and get it up to speed against some of the better run units he’ll face all year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2–15)
The Buccaneers are going to be overmatched this year, it seems. I don’t know how Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask will pilot a team through some rough pockets of games, including Weeks 11 to 16, where they face two legitimate Super Bowl contenders, along with some burgeoning teams that should be rounding into form by then.
NFC WEST
Editors’ note, Aug. 24 at 9:55 a.m. ET: This graphic has been updated to correct an error in the Seahawks’ schedule.
San Francisco 49ers (13–4)
I feel like it’s somewhat redundant for me to champion the 49ers, an organization that I have been notably obsessed with for three years now. Brock Purdy is back—and really good. The roster is stable, experienced in the right places and young and aggressive in others. I don’t see a team in their immediate rearview in the NFC right now, and that includes last year’s conference champions, the Eagles.
Seattle Seahawks (11–6)
Over Geno Smith’s final five games of the 2022 season, his quarterback rating was in the 80s, compared to a nine-game stretch before that where he was above 110 on average every week. While every quarterback is going to experience some valleys over the course of a long season, the question for Smith is whether he can sustain a complete and total regular season when provided the opportunity. I don’t think the drop-off was substantial enough to call him a one-year wonder. This team is dangerous with (almost) any quarterback above replacement level under center. Let’s ride.
Los Angeles Rams (9–8)
I tried, albeit unsuccessfully, to shoehorn the Rams into my final playoff spot for this exercise. As you can read elsewhere, I’ve become bullish on the Rams over the past few weeks for reasons I’ll further illuminate over the course of the preseason and early regular season. I think this will be a massive turnaround year in Los Angeles starting with a revival of a running game that has been dormant since the loss of Todd Gurley. While this roster is fragile in key spots, it has also pivoted toward the future, which may arrive sooner rather than later. I see the Rams upsetting some teams early, especially those that aren’t prepared for the new wrinkles contained in their offense.
Arizona Cardinals (1–16)
As cool as it was this preseason to see two of Arizona’s former first-round picks on defense trying to make the roster at positions other than their natural ones from college, it was also a fair assessment of the state the roster was left in. Arizona is in a rebuilding phase. It looks as though the Cardinals plan on going about it the right way, by attempting to salvage young talent and grow other developing pieces on their roster. But it looks like they may have already been bad enough to get knocked around strategically in a way that quickly benefits the future via the draft.
PLAYOFFS
And here are my playoff standings, taking all relevant tiebreakers into account.
