Amid a trio of flashy offseasons in the AFC East, the Patriots have been amassing a quiet contender. On Monday afternoon, their candidacy as a surprise playoff candidate and potential division winner in 2023 got a little louder.
Far be it from me to overrate the impact of one running back signing, especially a 28-year-old with high mileage whose former team doesn’t want him anymore, but bringing in Ezekiel Elliott by the Patriots is more than just a high-profile gap filler. Yes, one could technically label Elliott as running back depth. But he is also a kind of finishing piece that helps the Patriots complete themselves as a ball-control, defense-dominant team that may end up being the antidote and complete antithesis to the other big-play dependent offenses in the division.
Think of Elliott as the jacket that pulls the outfit together. Now, it’s time to invite the Patriots to the party.
It will still be easy to ignore the Patriots this year given that there are so many other options. The Jets may have one of the three best defensive units in the NFL and among the deepest sets of pass rushers in the league to pair with elite cornerback play. Oh, and you may have heard, they added a pretty good quarterback as well. The Bills are perpetual Super Bowl contenders who are diversifying themselves offensively. The Dolphins run one of the best schemed offenses in the NFL with two of the best wide receivers in the league.
Juxtapose that with a Patriots team that, outside of the economically brilliant splurge on Matthew Judon a few years ago, has been picking its spots. Their biggest upgrades, like disposing of Frick and Frack as their offensive coordinators, isn’t going to be as celebrated given that Bill O’Brien was in New England before, even though one could argue he’s a completely different coach having spent time at Alabama.
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In watching training camp this summer and their first preseason game against the Texans, we saw a defense generating a consistent pass rush from its third-string weak-side linebacker slot (an illustration of just how talented they might be). They added a cornerback in Christian Gonzalez with their first-round pick, who could very well wind up being an elite talent. Bill Belichick, too, has not lost his considerable skill as a great matchup defensive coordinator. The Patriots finished last year as the third-best defense in the NFL according to the trustworthy DVOA rankings from Football Outsiders, which adjusts a unit’s strength based on situational factors and opponent quality. They were the 25th-best offense. Even if the addition of O’Brien makes them the 15th-best offense, how much more dangerous is a Patriots team that is too deep to be blown out and too well-prepared to lose a disproportionate amount of close games they’ll inevitably be in?
Back to Elliott, who had back-to-back 300-carry seasons in 2018 and ’19 but has seen his workload slowly decrease with the emergence of Tony Pollard. While Pollard, too, is a capable pass protection back, Elliott is the definition of a smasher. He will help Mac Jones in myriad ways, first and foremost by helping negate Jones’s lack of mobility by keeping him upright in the pocket.
He will also pick up the Patriots’ must-needed first downs. Pro Football Focus noted that Elliott was 16-of-20 last year when the Cowboys needed just one yard in critical situations. Rhamondre Stevenson is a good yards-after-contact back, but the Patriots’ search for a goal line back this preseason suggested the desire for more dependability on critical downs and less of a workload for Stevenson. Stevenson, and to some degree, Elliott, can both free each other up to be the prototypical Vic Fangio defense killers: solid, well-rounded backs who can contribute as pass catchers or blockers and can dominate the 0–5-yard range. The Dolphins currently employ Fangio as their defensive coordinator, for what it’s worth.
The Patriots, much like they did for the bulk of the Tom Brady era, are giving themselves a chance to major in the art of picking up first downs and leave the style points to everyone else.
Perhaps this is a delusional take and we’re allowing ourselves to be swept up by a signing that will matter little once the leaves change color. But there is also a chance that the Patriots understand the totality of what they’ve been building in secret. Maybe we’ll all see it soon.
