Two quarterbacks have stood above the fray when it comes to passing stats in 2022. According to sportsbooks, they also stand alone with it comes to this year’s NFL MVP Award odds.
Kansas City Chiefs star Patrick Mahomes, with the legacy of a past award and a Super Bowl trophy on his resume, currently stands as frontrunner with a +125 return on his MVP future. Miami Dolphins starter Tua Tagovailoa, a player whose future in south Florida was in question coming into the season, stands at +350. Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen are also in consideration, but neither have the short odds of the quarterbacks in charge of the AFC’s top two teams.
There are still eight weeks left in the 2022 NFL season, which leaves plenty of times for hot starts to fizzle and new contenders to emerge for the most prestigious regular season honor in the game. We don’t know what those final two months will hold, but we do know how we got here.
Looking back at that path, who should be 2022’s MVP?
The argument for Tua Tagovailoa
Look, Tagovailoa can’t do what Patrick Mahomes does. He’s not the same effortless athlete behind center. He’s not going to escape pressure, take nine seconds behind the line of scrimmage and then flip a pinpoint pass 50 yards downfield with what looks like a flick of his wrist.
But this makes Tagovailoa’s absurd efficiency even more impressive. While he’s been boosted by the Tyreek Hill-Jaylen Waddle combination in his receiving corps, he’s also made undeniable strides en route to some supremely impressive results.
Since 2012, no quarterback in the league has recorded a completion percentage over expected (CPOE) and expected points added (EPA) composite as high as his 0.227 number in 2022. Only five other quarterbacks have ever topped the 0.2 mark since 2015 — including Mahomes in 2018 where he topped out at 0.205. Three of those guys (Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan) took home MVP honors.
This isn’t a function of Garoppolo-ing his way to big gains through short passes and long runs after the catch. Tagovailoa’s average pass goes nine yards downfield — a career high and fifth-most in the NFL. His completion rate is 72 percent — also a career high and second-best among starting quarterbacks.
He’s completed 18 of his 29 passes 20-plus yards downfield. His 62.1 percent completion rate on those plays? Best in the league. His 18 deep ball completions? Second only to Josh Allen.
This isn’t just a story of finding success in the passing game; it’s also a testament to avoiding mistakes and keeping his offense on schedule.
In his last four games, Tagovailoa has dropped back to pass 135 times. He’s turned the ball over zero times. Only four of those plays — two sacks, two completions for a loss — resulted in negative yardage. As a result, his Dolphins have the highest offensive success rate — a play defined as gaining at least 40% of yards-to-go on first down, 60% of yards-to-go on second down and 100% of yards-to-go on third or fourth down — in the NFL despite a mostly middling run game.
But those are all stats. What about the results on the field?
Well, we know MVP is a narrative award. How about this narrative: the Dolphins are 7-0 in games Tagovailoa starts and finishes. They’re 0-3 when he doesn’t. That certainly demonstrates tangible value to me. — Christian D’Andrea
The argument for Patrick Mahomes
I know that some people are (somewhat understandably?) sick of seeing Patrick Mahomes. When you’re the best player in the sport, you’re inevitably going to be featured in seemingly countless headlines, highlights, and general mundane football conversations.
But just because Mahomes is permanently plastered in our football-addicted minds doesn’t mean we shouldn’t appreciate the greatness he unveils every week. And at age 27, after a prolific young career built on humiliating defenders while playing in every Big Game, I would argue the superstar Kansas City signal caller is better than ever.
While Mahomes’ talented peer in Tagovailoa is partly (understatement) elevated by the unique exploits of former BFF Tyreek Hill, Mahomes might be orchestrating the league’s most consistent, multifaceted productive offense anyway. All as he learns to spread the wealth to a bevy of competent playmakers … without feeding Hill 150-plus targets (per season) as he often did during the first comfortable phase of his career.
At the moment, with a confident Mahomes pulling all the strings, Kansas City has:
- The NFL’s No. 1 offense in Football Outsiders’ DVOA efficiency metric
- The NFL’s No. 2 offense in yardage (423.1 yards per game)
- The NFL’s top-scoring offense (precisely 30 points per game)
- The NFL’s second-best third-down and fourth-down offense (51.9 percent and 75 percent, respectively)
Oh, and not to be overlooked: No one has more pure first-down plays (226) than the Chiefs. And 155 of those have come on the arm of Mahomes, who is also second in the league in first-down throw percentage (42.4 percent). If that isn’t enough, Kansas City’s attack is also the most efficient on an EPA basis (0.199 per play; more than Tagovailoa’s Dolphins in second at 0.136 per play). This happens while the Chiefs’ defense remains putrid (22nd in DVOA) and they also forgo running the ball (21st in rushing offense) because, you know, it takes the ball out of Mahomes’ hands.
On an individual level, Mahomes leads the league in passing yards (2,936 yards), created touchdowns (25), 20-plus-yard passes (41), and has a nice and clean interception rate of 0.019 percent despite 366 pass attempts (third-most).
In 2018, Mahomes threw 50 touchdown passes (!) and over 5,000 yards as we watched the advent of a superstar. He’s roughly on track to eclipse that career-best season statistically despite arguably having less on paper this time around! Without an All-Pro speedster at receiver — a playmaker many thought Mahomes flat-out needed to excel — he’s being asked to do more than ever, and he’s still producing like the top player in the game.
This wasn’t supposed to happen. Even while he still had a Hall of Fame safety valve in Travis Kelce, Mahomes was supposed to drop off. The Chiefs were supposed to be retooling. Mahomes wasn’t supposed to be leading the league’s best offense at the peak of his powers as teams “figured” him out without Hill. Instead, with everyone knowing he’s always got to pull a rabbit out of his hat, Mahomes continues to make everyone look silly.
What’s clear now is all that Patrick Mahomes needs to be Patrick Mahomes is his health. Nothing more. I don’t think we can say that about anyone else.
I’m now at the point of never counting out Touchdown Tom Touchdown Pat. — Robert Zeglinski
