Did Rishi Sunak ever need to appoint Suella Braverman in the first place? As Braverman claimed in her resignation letter, there seems to be a “general agreement” in that her support was “pivotal” in winning Sunak his premiership. But I was struck by a piece by Professor Tim Bale at Queen Mary University of London, which suggests this claim may have been exaggerated.
At the time — October last year — the consensus was that a Right-wing rump of the party was holding the leadership race hostage. The idea was that without Braverman’s backing for Sunak, they would ensure the election of Boris Johnson. But Professor Bale notes that Sunak’s eventual supporters only included seven of one group of 28 Right-wing MPs, the so-called European Research Group which voted against Theresa May’s Brexit deal on all three occasions — and only 10 of another group of 30 “anti-woke” MPs. Not enough to ensure a decisive victory — not quite enough to stop Johnson. The group may not have been so pivotal after all.
This is important, because this deal with Braverman came at a steep price — one that has been allowed to overshadow Sunak’s leadership to date. When he became leader over a year ago, the Prime Minister pitched himself as the pragmatic candidate who would steady the ship after the Truss premiership. But this identity was soon undermined — instead Sunak gave the impression of a man torn between warring factions, unable to assert his authority. He never regained it, and eventually his authority seemed at the mercy of just one person: Braverman herself, who was the Home Secretary permitted to openly defy him. In the minds of the party and the press, she represented the Right — and as such was deemed “unsackable”.
Braverman’s letter to Sunak was incendiary, but it does not seem to have incited much action
But the eventual sacking of Braverman has as yet been followed by no giant rebellion on the Right. There has been a furious letter from Andrea Jenkyns. There have been angry remarks from Brexiteer Tories (“The coup is complete. Remain has won and democracy has lost,” Lord Cruddas said.) Braverman’s letter to Sunak was incendiary — but it does not seem to have incited much action. Could it be that in tacking back to the centre, the party has diminished the Right, not emboldened it? Has Sunak spent a year at the mercy of a Right-wing bogeyman, only to find it has vanished when he finally stood up to it?
It’s clear that Braverman was, in fact, sackable. One conclusion might be that she was not the Right-wing figurehead she had claimed to be. But there’s an alternative explanation: that the Right wing of the party itself is not as powerful as we have always assumed.
It’s time to ask how much power this part of the Tory party actually has. In raw numbers, there are some 60 hard-Right MPs, those who might not look out of place representing Ukip. But that still leaves some 300 or so whose aims and preferences now tend to clash with this group. Many of the populist wing of the party also represent seats that are now seen as lost — they are likely to be a lesser force after the election.
The Right has long held prime ministers hostage — Sunak is not the only one to assign this group an outsize amount of power. The fear of being outflanked on the Right looms large, even though this has never quite materialised at general elections. There are seats to be lost on the Right — but far more to be lost to the centre. Indeed, the views of this section of the party tend not to be widely shared by voters. Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates this week accused Sunak of “abandoning” red wall voters and “sacrificing” seats in the North and Midlands by sacking Braverman. Yet YouGov polling suggested only around a third of Leave voters disapproved of the sacking.
Nevertheless, Conservative prime ministers have made appeasing the Right a priority. It makes superficial sense for leaders to throw red meat to this group: if you signal you are on their side, you might assume they would fall in line.
Facing it down isn’t always wise, as Theresa May learned when this grouping managed to scupper her premiership. But talking about the Right can also drive their issues up the agenda. Prime ministers assume this group has power, and dance to its tune. But dancing to its tune also hands it power.
Will the Right take its revenge on Sunak? What will happen after the defenestration of Braverman and the appointment of a prominent anti-Brexiteer in the form of David Cameron? The question of how much sway the Right holds over the party should be answered in the next few months.
