Almost 2 million more people will be suffering from sore backs, necks and other body parts by 2040 due to a surge in chronic pain caused by England’s ageing population, new research shows.
The number of people in England aged 20 and over with chronic pain is set to soar from 5.345 million in 2019 to 7.247 million by 2040, according to projections by the Health Foundation thinktank.
That 1.9m rise means the proportion of the population whose lives are blighted by the condition will increase from one in eight (12.4%) to one in seven (14.4%). That will add to the strain on NHS GP services and hospitals and also increase their spending on pain-relieving drugs.
Those aged 50 to 69 will be the most affected, with some left in such pain that they cannot work, adding to the record 2.8 million people across the UK who are already too ill to do so.
Women will bear the brunt of the increase, as consistent evidence shows that they are already on average about 50% more likely than men to develop persistent pain.
Pain is also an example of Britain’s stark health inequalities, with the poorest almost three times more likely than the best-off to have to endure its highly debilitating effects, which can wreck sufferers’ ability to lead a normal life.
Ann Raymond, an economist at the Health Foundation, who undertook the research, said the rise was linked to expected rises in the years ahead in the number of people with musculoskeletal conditions such as different forms of arthritis, back pain and osteoporosis.
She said: “Much of our projected increase in chronic pain nationally is due to the population getting older, as the likelihood of experiencing it increases with age. Chronic pain can have significant implications for people’s quality of life and ability to work, and can have a knock-on effect on their loved ones.
“A University of Cambridge assessment of 20 conditions rated chronic pain joint seventh highest in terms of its impact on individuals and the health system. This means people living with chronic pain are more likely to need GP appointments and emergency hospital admissions and are more likely to die.”
Raymond reached her conclusions after analysing trends in the prescription of painkilling drugs and projections for the increasing number of older people the next 16 years will bring.
Dr Benjamin Ellis, a consultant rheumatologist at Imperial College Healthcare NHS trust in London, said the figures underlined the “shocking human cost” of chronic pain. He said there would be so many extra sufferers in the future that it would hit productivity and tax receipts.
“Right now, one in every eight adults in England have high-impact chronic pain – relentless, severe pain where you can’t manage everyday activities – and a fifth of people with this level of chronic pain are permanently unable to work. These future predictions are a great concern.
“That nearly 2 million more people will have chronic pain by 2040 must now focus the minds of policymakers and the NHS on the shocking human cost of the devastating physical, emotional and financial impact of chronic pain on those affected, their carers, families and communities, as well as the wider costs to health and care services, and the economy as a whole.”
The impending pain surge is so great that the NHS needs to “rethink” how it cares for sufferers, to help them manage their condition, by offering them great help from community-based health services, he added.
Chronic pain also affects many people of working age, not just retirement age, Raymond said. It affects 9% of 20- to 49-year-olds but 28% of those in the 50-69 age bracket in the poorest areas.
A disproportionate number of the extra 1.9 million sufferers will be found among England’s poorest communities, because of the increased prevalence found there, she said.
For example, in 2019 one in four (25%) of women and 17% of men in the poorest 10% of the population had chronic pain compared with just 10% and 7% in the wealthiest 10%.
Nevertheless, the thinktank’s findings are lower than those in a 2017 Public Health England report, which found that one in three people suffered pain that lasted for at least 12 weeks in the previous year. But it was based on self-reported data from the health survey for England, not prescription data.
NHS England has been approached for comment.
